IMF上調(diào)全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)

The world economy is enjoying its most widespread and fastest growth spurt since a temporary bounce back from the global recession in 2010, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, as it released a series of upward revisions to its economic biannual forecasts.

國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)周二表示，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在經(jīng)歷自2010年從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退暫時(shí)反彈以來(lái)最廣泛最快速的增長(zhǎng)期。該機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)其半年一次的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)作出了一連串上調(diào)。

In a rare upbeat World Economic Outlook, published at the start of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, the fund added that the unexpectedly good news had further to run in 2018 and higher investment was also beginning to improve the longer-term economic prognosis.

在IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)在華盛頓舉行的年度會(huì)議開(kāi)幕之際，IMF發(fā)表一份不多見(jiàn)的樂(lè)觀的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(World Economic Outlook)，并補(bǔ)充稱，出人意料的好消息在2018年仍有進(jìn)一步延續(xù)空間，同時(shí)更高的投資也開(kāi)始改善較長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)。

The last time the global economy grew so fast was in 2010 as the world economy staged a temporary recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis, so this year’s performance was significantly stronger, according to Maurice Obstfeld, chief economist of the IMF.

IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莫里斯•奧布斯特費(fèi)爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，上一次全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)這么快是在2010年，當(dāng)時(shí)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)是從2008-09年的金融危機(jī)暫時(shí)復(fù)蘇，因此今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)要強(qiáng)勁得多。

“This is not bounce back from a sharp deceleration, this is an acceleration from the fairly tepid growth rates of recent years, so that’s really good news,” he told the FT in an interview ahead of the report’s publication.

“這并不是從一輪急劇減速反彈，而是從近年相當(dāng)溫和的增長(zhǎng)速度加快，所以這真的是好消息，”他在報(bào)告出爐之前接受采訪時(shí)告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》。

The IMF estimates that the world economy will expand 3.6 per cent in 2017, up from 3.2 per cent recorded last year, and it is likely to grow 3.7 per cent in 2018, the IMF predicted. These growth rates are better than the norm for this decade and finally back to the long-term average of the past 30 years.

IMF估計(jì)，2017年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將擴(kuò)張3.6%，高于去年實(shí)現(xiàn)的3.2%。IMF還預(yù)計(jì)2018年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)有望增長(zhǎng)3.7%。這些增長(zhǎng)率優(yōu)于本10年的常態(tài)，并且標(biāo)志著終于回歸過(guò)去30年的長(zhǎng)期均值。

The upgraded growth forecasts came alongside predictions of low inflation across the world, helping to boost household incomes, a continuation of loose monetary policies and an end to fiscal austerity in most countries, the IMF said.

在上調(diào)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)的同時(shí)，IMF預(yù)計(jì)世界各地的通脹將保持在低水平，幫助提振家庭收入、延續(xù)寬松貨幣政策，并且結(jié)束多數(shù)國(guó)家的財(cái)政緊縮。

China’s economy is also performing better than expected on the back of easy credit and copious public investment. The forecasts for the US were cut marginally, reflecting a weak first quarter of this year and the fund’s view that a large fiscal stimulus is now less likely than it thought in April.

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在寬松信貸和大量公共投資的支撐下表現(xiàn)也優(yōu)于預(yù)期。美國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)略有下調(diào)，反映今年第一季度的疲弱，而且IMF認(rèn)為，該國(guó)出臺(tái)大規(guī)模財(cái)政刺激措施的可能性小于它在4月份的設(shè)想。

The most significant upgrades to the fund’s forecasts were recorded for the eurozone, which is accelerating strongly as confidence has improved and credit supply has returned to normal.

在IMF的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)中，歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)獲得最顯著的上調(diào)。隨著信心改善，信貸供應(yīng)恢復(fù)正常，該地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)正在強(qiáng)勁加速。

Despite the strength of its largest trading partner, the UK economy is described as an “exception” to the improved 2017 outlook, with its prospects currently saddled by Brexit uncertainties limiting spending and hitting incomes.

盡管其最大的貿(mào)易伙伴表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，但英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)被描述為2017年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景好轉(zhuǎn)的一個(gè)“例外”，其前景目前受到退歐不確定性的拖累，支出受到限制，收入受到影響。

Although the recovery was now broad, not all countries were enjoying the benefit, with some smaller emerging economies, particularly fuel exporters and nations suffering from drought or political instability.

雖然復(fù)蘇的波及面已經(jīng)相當(dāng)廣泛，但并不是所有國(guó)家都受益，一些較小的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，特別是燃料出口國(guó)和遭受干旱或政治不穩(wěn)定的國(guó)家，前景不佳。

Mr Obstfeld said: “In 2017 nearly a quarter of emerging market and developing countries are expected to have negative per-capita growth rates so that’s a sobering outlook.”

奧布斯特費(fèi)爾德表示：“2017年，近四分之一的新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的人均增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)錄得負(fù)值，這是一個(gè)令人警醒的前景。”

Global trade imbalances have also continued to reduce in severity with China’s trade surplus falling as the world’s largest economy sucks in more imports and some European surpluses decline as domestic spending also increases.

全球貿(mào)易不平衡的嚴(yán)重性也繼續(xù)下降，中國(guó)的貿(mào)易順差下降，因?yàn)槭澜绲诙蠼?jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)，同時(shí)一些歐洲國(guó)家的順差下降，因?yàn)樗鼈兊膰?guó)內(nèi)支出也在增加。

The IMF urged countries to use this sudden outbreak of calm in the global economy as “a window of opportunity” to implement necessary reforms, get public finances gradually in a better shape and in some places such as the US begin to normalise monetary policy.

IMF敦促各國(guó)將全球經(jīng)濟(jì)突然迎來(lái)的此輪風(fēng)平浪靜當(dāng)作“一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)之窗”，推行必要改革，逐漸改善公共財(cái)政狀況，在美國(guó)等一些地方還應(yīng)該將貨幣政策正?；?。

If achieved, Mr Obstfeld said, such policies could raise the potential growth rate of the world economy and ensure the upswing lasted longer and was able to provide inclusive growth that raised the living standards of most people. At present, he warned that “predicted longer-run potential growth rates are lower than they were in the past”.

奧布斯特費(fèi)爾德表示，如果能夠落實(shí)，這樣的政策有望提高世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在增長(zhǎng)率，同時(shí)確保上升期持續(xù)更久，并帶來(lái)包容性增長(zhǎng)，提高多數(shù)人的生活水平。他警告稱，目前而言，“較長(zhǎng)期潛在增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)測(cè)低于過(guò)去的預(yù)測(cè)。”

The fund did caution that the good times were dependent on assuming there were no serious shocks to the global economy from geopolitical tensions, from an increase in protectionist forces or from negotiations such as those over Brexit or the North American Free Trade Area rupturing existing trade ties and supply chains.

IMF告誡稱，當(dāng)今的美好時(shí)期依賴于幾個(gè)假設(shè)，包括地緣政治緊張和保護(hù)主義勢(shì)力抬頭不對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重沖擊，圍繞英國(guó)退歐或《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》(NAFTA)等的破壞現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易紐帶和供應(yīng)鏈的談判也不對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重沖擊。

Trade growth has continued to disappoint, barely rising faster than economic growth compared with its pre-crisis rates which tended to be double the rate of world economic growth.

貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)令人失望，比經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度快不了多少，而其在危機(jī)前的增速往往比世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增速快一倍。

In an indirect, but pointed, message to the Trump administration, the IMF said: “Although the chances of advanced economy policies turning inward have diminished in the near term, pressures for increased protectionism have not disappeared and ought to be resisted.”

IMF向特朗普政府發(fā)出一個(gè)間接但意有所指的信號(hào)，稱：“盡管發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體政策轉(zhuǎn)為內(nèi)向的幾率近期有所降低，但是加大保護(hù)主義的壓力并未消失，這應(yīng)該受到抵制。”

The fund also warned China that its delays in rebalancing the economy towards services and consumption by borrowing to fund investment risked an abrupt adjustment which would reverberate across the world. “Unless the Chinese authorities counter the associated risks by accelerating their recent encouraging efforts to curb the expansion of credit, these factors imply a heightened probability of a sharp slowdown in China’s growth,” the fund said.

該機(jī)構(gòu)還向中國(guó)發(fā)出警告，稱中國(guó)通過(guò)借款投資來(lái)推遲轉(zhuǎn)向服務(wù)業(yè)和消費(fèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡，帶來(lái)了突然出現(xiàn)調(diào)整、進(jìn)而在全球范圍產(chǎn)生震蕩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。“除非中國(guó)當(dāng)局加快近期令人鼓舞的遏制信貸擴(kuò)張的努力來(lái)反制相關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，否則這些因素意味著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)大幅放緩的幾率加大。”