沙特“國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃”面臨的油價(jià)困局

Just a year after its release, Saudi Arabia is reportedly slowing down the planned pace of the National Transformation Program, a bundle of targets and initiatives designed to deliver the “Vision 2030” plan to diversify the country’s economy and reduce its reliance on oil revenue.

出臺(tái)僅一年后，沙特阿拉伯據(jù)報(bào)道正放慢其“國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃”(National Transformation Program)的節(jié)奏，該計(jì)劃包含一整套目標(biāo)和舉措，旨在實(shí)現(xiàn)《愿景2030》(Vision 2030)，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化，并降低對(duì)石油收入的依賴。

The NTP was exceedingly ambitious from the start, with a head-spinning 543 initiatives and 346 targets. It has a laudable focus on concrete targets, measurable outcomes, transparency and accountability, along with a strong focus on boosting the education and skill levels of Saudi Arabian citizens. At the same time, many of the goals were unrealistic — tripling non-oil revenue by 2020, for example — and the pace of reform has been slower than intended.

“國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃”從一開始就過(guò)于雄心勃勃，包含讓人頭暈的543個(gè)舉措和346個(gè)目標(biāo)。它關(guān)注具體目標(biāo)、可衡量的結(jié)果、透明度和問(wèn)責(zé)機(jī)制，還特別注重提高沙特阿拉伯公民的教育和技能水平，這些都值得稱贊。與此同時(shí)，很多目標(biāo)不切實(shí)際(例如到2020年將非石油收入增加至原有水平的三倍)，迄今的改革速度慢于預(yù)期。

The reset is not surprising, therefore. Announcing an attention-grabbing set of goals can be an effective way to galvanise a complex government bureaucracy, as well demonstrate seriousness to both citizens at home and international investors who have seen economic reform visions in the Gulf states come and go.

因此調(diào)整并不意外。宣布一攬子奪人眼球的目標(biāo)可能是動(dòng)員復(fù)雜的政府官僚體制的有效方式，同時(shí)還向國(guó)民和國(guó)際投資者證明其認(rèn)真，后者曾不止一次目睹海灣國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革愿景不了了之。

Moving now to a still ambitious but more achievable set of targets reflects a recognition of how challenging the NTP is to implement. It also signals the kingdom’s intention to stay the course. Achieving a sizeable portion of the new targets would still reflect dramatic progress.

現(xiàn)在沙特正轉(zhuǎn)向仍然雄心勃勃、但更有望實(shí)現(xiàn)的目標(biāo)，這反映出該國(guó)承認(rèn)，“國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃”實(shí)施起來(lái)非常具有挑戰(zhàn)性。此舉還表明沙特的初衷并未改變。實(shí)現(xiàn)可觀比例的新目標(biāo)，仍將反映戲劇性的進(jìn)步。

The challenge for Saudi Arabia, however, is that low oil prices restrict its room for fiscal manoeuvre. The International Monetary Fund estimates Saudi Arabia’s break-even oil price to be $84 per barrel (the price of Brent Crude is currently $53 per barrel). The kingdom is running large fiscal deficits and has seen its foreign reserves dwindle by almost a third since the end of 2014, to below $500bn. It can continue to borrow and draw on its reserves, but the prospect of “lower for longer” oil prices reinforces the imperative to shrink the fiscal hole by cutting state spending or raising other revenue.

然而，沙特阿拉伯面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是低油價(jià)限制了財(cái)政回旋空間。國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計(jì)，沙特阿拉伯達(dá)到盈虧平衡的油價(jià)水平是每桶84美元(目前布倫特原油(Brent Crude)的價(jià)格為每桶53美元)。沙特運(yùn)行著巨額財(cái)政赤字，而且自2014年底以來(lái)外匯儲(chǔ)備已縮減近三分之一，至不到5000億美元。該國(guó)可以繼續(xù)借款并動(dòng)用儲(chǔ)備，但油價(jià)“在更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)偏低”的前景，將增強(qiáng)該國(guó)通過(guò)削減政府支出或開辟其他財(cái)政收入來(lái)源來(lái)縮小財(cái)政赤字的必要性。

The dilemma Saudi Arabia faces is that the harsher the austerity measures, the greater the contractionary effect on the economy of sharp cuts in government spending. The IMF recently downgraded the outlook for growth in gross domestic product to 0.1 per cent for 2017 and 1.1 per cent for 2018.

沙特阿拉伯面臨的難題是，緊縮措施越嚴(yán)厲，政府支出大幅削減對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的收縮效應(yīng)就越大。IMF最近將其對(duì)該國(guó)2017年和2018年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速的預(yù)測(cè)分別下調(diào)至0.1%和1.1%。

Moreover, cutting expenditure by shrinking the state payroll, imposing taxes or curtailing subsidies risks public backlash at a time of significant transition in the royal family, with the recent elevation of Mohammed bin Salman to crown prince. Austerity measures have already been curtailed. In April, King Salman reversed cuts to public sector pay and benefits, and in June reinstated pay that had been cut previously. The government has also delayed planned energy reforms.

另外，在沙特皇室家族經(jīng)歷重大過(guò)渡之際(王子穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)不久前被立為王儲(chǔ))，通過(guò)裁減政府工作人員、征稅或限制補(bǔ)貼來(lái)減少支出，有引起公眾反彈之虞。緊縮舉措已被逆轉(zhuǎn)。今年4月，薩勒曼國(guó)王撤銷了削減公共部門薪資和福利的措施，并在6月恢復(fù)了此前被削減的薪資。政府還推遲了計(jì)劃中的能源改革。

The US shale revolution is a further challenge for the reform programme, as the ability of the Americans to ramp up output rapidly at lower prices than many expected seems to be putting a lid on oil’s upside. From an oil market standpoint, the news that the Saudis intend to pursue a slower pace of reform increases the pressure to boost revenue by maintaining the current Opec/non-Opec supply agreement. It also reinforces the importance of a successful initial public offering of Saudi Aramco in 2018, a key piece of the economic reform plan aimed at raising $100bn for a public investment fund.

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖革命對(duì)這項(xiàng)改革計(jì)劃構(gòu)成進(jìn)一步的挑戰(zhàn)，積極增產(chǎn)的美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)企業(yè)能夠承受低于很多人預(yù)期的油價(jià)水平，這似乎制約了油價(jià)上漲。從石油市場(chǎng)的角度來(lái)看，沙特計(jì)劃放慢改革速度的消息，加大了通過(guò)維持當(dāng)前的石油輸出國(guó)組織(Opec，簡(jiǎn)稱：歐佩克)/非歐佩克國(guó)家供應(yīng)協(xié)議來(lái)增加收入的壓力。這還增強(qiáng)了沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)在2018年成功完成首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)的重要性，此舉是該國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革計(jì)劃的關(guān)鍵一環(huán)，旨在為一只公共投資基金籌集1000億美元。

Saudi Arabia matters immensely, both as a swing supplier of oil and for stability and security in the region. A serious effort to reduce its dependence on oil revenue, open up to foreign investment and liberalise its society should be supported and encouraged. Yet the challenges remain immense, especially as the shale era depresses oil prices and efforts to close the resulting fiscal deficits slow the economy.

沙特阿拉伯極為重要，它既是一個(gè)舉足輕重的石油供應(yīng)者，還對(duì)地區(qū)的穩(wěn)定與安全至關(guān)重要。降低對(duì)石油收入的依賴、向外資開放以及允許該國(guó)社會(huì)自由化的認(rèn)真努力，應(yīng)該得到支持和鼓勵(lì)。然而，挑戰(zhàn)仍然巨大，尤其是考慮到頁(yè)巖時(shí)代抑制油價(jià)，而彌補(bǔ)由此導(dǎo)致的財(cái)政赤字的努力將減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The writer is a former special assistant to President Barack Obama and director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University

本文作者曾擔(dān)任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統(tǒng)的特別助理，現(xiàn)任哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy)主任