安倍提前大選決定可能失算

The Japanese general election of 2017 got interesting exactly three-and-a-half hours before prime minister Shinzo Abe called it.

2017年日本大選在安倍晉三首相宣布舉行提前選舉的三個半小時之前變得有意思。

With a 36-point lead in the opinion polls, and the opposition Democratic party in utter disarray, Mr Abe has strong reasons for an early ballot. But if he thought everything would go his way then Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s press conference — timed to upstage the prime minister’s election launch — will have disabused him.

憑借民意調(diào)查中的36點領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢，同時反對黨民進黨(Democratic Party)深陷混亂，安倍晉三有很好的理由提前舉行大選。但是，如果他認為事情將一帆風(fēng)順，那么東京都知事小池百合子的記者會——在時間上精心安排，以奪走首相宣布選舉的風(fēng)頭——將讓他失望。

Word was that Ms Koike would announce the name of a baby panda born in Tokyo’s Ueno zoo (a bigger news story for much of Japan’s media than the general election). “There are lots of announcements of names today,” opened Ms Koike. Then rather than name the panda, she named her new “Party of Hope”, and declared herself its leader.

此前透露的風(fēng)聲稱，小池百合子將宣布在東京上野動物園剛出生的大熊貓寶寶的名字(對日本很大一部分媒體來說，這是比大選更加重大的新聞)。小池百合子在開場白中說，“今天有很多名字要公諸于眾”。接著，她沒有為熊貓命名，而是把她創(chuàng)立的新政黨命名為“希望之黨”，并宣告自己出任黨魁。

The playful theatre was a reminder that Mr Abe is not the most talented or charismatic politician in Japan. Ms Koike has charisma in abundance. Her new party shows the risks in an election Mr Abe has called more because the opposition is weak than for any pressing reason of policy.

這一幕在讓人耳目一新的同時也提醒人們，安倍晉三并不是日本最有天賦或最有政治魅力的政治人物。小池百合子有大把政治魅力。她的新政黨顯示了安倍決定提前大選的風(fēng)險;安倍作出這個決定在更大程度上是由于反對黨處于弱勢，而不是出于任何緊迫的政策原因。

Mr Abe still holds the whip hand. His ruling Liberal Democratic party is polling at 44 per cent, it has a formidable electoral machine, the economy is doing well and Japan’s public appreciate the five years of political stability the prime minister has brought.

安倍仍處于支配地位。他所屬的執(zhí)政的自民黨(LDP)在民調(diào)中獲得44%的支持率，該黨擁有令人敬畏的選舉機器，日本經(jīng)濟運行良好，而日本公眾贊賞現(xiàn)任首相帶來的五年政治穩(wěn)定。

But he faces a considerable challenge in framing this election to his advantage. Mr Abe insisted a change of tax plans required a new mandate and that democratic elections are a fine way to spite North Korea.

但在如何以有利于自己的方式框定這場選舉的問題上，安倍面臨相當(dāng)大的挑戰(zhàn)。他堅稱稅收計劃的改變要求他征求新的民意授權(quán)，而且民主選舉是同仇敵愾回應(yīng)朝鮮的好辦法。

The platform is basically socialist, however — tax more to spend more — and thus at odds with his party’s conservative ideology and its business base. Nor does it offer much grand purpose, unlike Mr Abe’s past appeals to revive Japan’s economy and national stature. Mr Abe is therefore in danger from anybody who is a better populist than him.

然而，安倍的競選綱領(lǐng)基本上是社會主義的：增稅以便增加支出，這與自民黨的保守意識形態(tài)和商界支持根基格格不入。這套綱領(lǐng)也沒有提供什么宏大目的，與安倍以往提出重振日本經(jīng)濟和國家地位的訴求不同。因此，如果安倍遇到一個比他更高超的民粹主義者，他有可能陷入危險境地。

The Democratic party is hopeless at populism, and in recent years, not much good at politics either. Ms Koike, however, is another matter. The substantive political differences between the Tokyo governor and the prime minister are tiny — they are both conservative nationalists — but whereas Mr Abe is respected rather than loved, Ms Koike has a base of genuine fans.

民粹主義是民進黨的弱項，近年該黨在政治上也拿不出什么作為。然而小池百合子是另一回事。東京都知事與首相之間的實質(zhì)性政治差異很小——兩人都是立場保守的民族主義者——但是安倍受人尊敬而非愛戴，而小池百合子擁有真正的粉絲根基。

With little else to interest them, Japan’s media will happily turn the election into a Koike versus Abe showdown, and the large pool of undecided voters gives the Obama-flavoured Party of Hope room to grow. It will stand a limited number of candidates and they may struggle to get traction outside of the Tokyo area. But even modest losses to Ms Koike will leave Mr Abe weakened.

在沒有其它什么事引發(fā)興趣的情況下，日本媒體將津津樂道地把這場選舉描述為小池與安倍之間的對決，而大量拿不定主意怎么投票的選民將給帶有奧巴馬味道的“希望之黨”提供異軍突起的空間。該黨投入競選的候選人數(shù)量將是有限的，而且在東京以外地區(qū)可能難以贏得人氣。但是，即使是被小池奪走少量席位，也將削弱安倍的地位。

The panda will be called Shan-Shan, Ms Koike eventually said, an “extremely cute name evoking fragrance”. If Ms Koike pulls it off, Shan-Shan will evoke ruthless and effective politicking just as well.

小池百合子最后說，上野動物園大熊貓寶寶的名字已定為“香香”，并稱這是一個“非?？蓯鄣拿?，讓人想起香味”。如果小池百合子競選得手，“香香”這個名字也將令人聯(lián)想到無情和有效的政治操作。