特朗普獲得重塑美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的大好機(jī)會(huì)

Donald Trump was already faced with an extraordinary opportunity to reshape the US central bank. The decision by Stanley Fischer to leave the Federal Reserve’s powerful board of governors eight months before his term expires will allow the president to make his mark even sooner.

一個(gè)重塑美國(guó)央行的絕佳機(jī)會(huì)擺在了唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的、面前。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)副主席斯坦利•費(fèi)希爾(Stanley Fischer)決定在其任期結(jié)束前8個(gè)月辭去其在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)權(quán)力強(qiáng)大的理事會(huì)中的職務(wù)，這將使美國(guó)總統(tǒng)得以更早地在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)打上他的印記。

The Fed vice-chair’s departure next month opens a fourth vacancy on the board of governors, depending on how soon incoming governor Randal Quarles can clinch confirmation in the Senate. On top of that, Janet Yellen may well fail to win a second term as Fed chair when her current stint expires in February.

費(fèi)希爾下月離開(kāi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)之際，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)將出現(xiàn)第4個(gè)職位空缺，具體情況還要取決于即將進(jìn)入理事會(huì)的蘭德?tīng)?bull;夸爾斯(Randal Quarles)的提名能夠多快得到參議院確認(rèn)。此外，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)的任期將在明年2月結(jié)束，她可能無(wú)法獲得連任。

By early next year there may be only two governors left who can count their service at the Fed in years rather than weeks or months. Sarah Binder of George Washington University says in modern times no president has had more potential Fed board positions to fill at one time.

到明年初，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)中可能只有兩位理事能夠以年(而不是周或者月)為單位來(lái)計(jì)算他們余下的任期。喬治華盛頓大學(xué)(George Washington University)的薩拉•賓德(Sarah Binder)表示，在當(dāng)代，還沒(méi)有哪位總統(tǒng)有機(jī)會(huì)一次填補(bǔ)這么多美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事會(huì)席位空缺。

The question is how Mr Trump wants to exploit his big moment to reshape the bank. Those in the process are finding his intentions characteristically unpredictable, and sluggish progress on White House appointments risks leaving the Fed thinly staffed for some time, to the dismay of former Fed officials.

問(wèn)題在于特朗普想要如何利用他的重大機(jī)會(huì)來(lái)重塑美國(guó)的央行。參與這一進(jìn)程的人發(fā)現(xiàn)特朗普的意圖一如既往不可預(yù)測(cè)，使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的前官員感到不安的是，白宮任命流程的緩慢有可能使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)人員不足。

“There are just huge question marks for the future of the Fed right now — we don’t have a good sense of where Trump is headed,” said Ms Binder. “The White House appointments process is achingly slow, as is the Senate confirmation process.”

“現(xiàn)在，巨大的問(wèn)號(hào)打在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的前景之上——我們弄不清特朗普的前進(jìn)方向，”賓德說(shuō)，“白宮任命流程極為緩慢，參議院確認(rèn)提名的流程同樣如此。”

Gary Cohn, who emerged as a frontrunner to be the next Fed chair during the summer, has more recently soured his prospects by publicly attacking Mr Trump’s response to the Charlottesville violence in the pages of the Financial Times.

今年夏天，加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)一度是下一任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的熱門(mén)人選，但最近這一前景變得暗淡，原因是他在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》上公開(kāi)批評(píng)特朗普對(duì)夏洛茨威爾(Charlottesville)暴力事件的回應(yīng)。

At the margin, Mr Cohn’s reduced standing could boost Ms Yellen’s chances of retaining the position of chair. But while the president admires her willingness to pursue a low interest rate policy, the administration’s appetite for slacker financial regulation may prove equally pressing, while Mr Cohn could yet restore his standing with the president with a big win on tax reform.

此消彼長(zhǎng)，科恩失寵或許能提高耶倫保住美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席之位的機(jī)會(huì)。但盡管特朗普總統(tǒng)欣賞耶倫推行低息政策的意愿，特朗普政府對(duì)放松金融監(jiān)管的渴望可能同樣迫切，而科恩也可能通過(guò)在稅改上取得一場(chǎng)大勝來(lái)重新贏得特朗普的歡心。

Ms Yellen has made clear her opposition to anything other than incremental adjustments to financial regulation; her recent comment to the Senate Banking Committee that some Treasury proposals would increase the risk of a new crisis were poorly received.

耶倫明確表示，除非是逐步調(diào)整金融監(jiān)管，否則她一概反對(duì);她最近對(duì)參議院銀行業(yè)委員會(huì)(Senate banking committee)提出，美國(guó)財(cái)政部的一些提案可能會(huì)加大爆發(fā)一場(chǎng)新危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但并未得到多少理會(huì)。

Among the other key candidates for chair is Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor who enjoys good White House connections and who has been vigorously campaigning for the job. In July, he co-wrote a markedly Trump-friendly paper with fellow Stanford professor John Taylor and Glenn Hubbard of Columbia Business School, who, like Mr Warsh, are potential Fed chairs.

其他主要的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席候選人還包括前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事凱文•沃什(Kevin Warsh)，沃什與白宮的關(guān)系不錯(cuò)，同時(shí)也一直在積極爭(zhēng)取這個(gè)職位。今年7月，他與斯坦福大學(xué)(Stanford)教授約翰•泰勒(John Taylor)及哥倫比亞商學(xué)院(Columbia Business School)的格倫•哈伯德(Glenn Hubbard)，聯(lián)合撰寫(xiě)了一篇引人注目的示好特朗普的文章，與沃倫一樣，泰勒和哈伯德也都有望出任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席。

They enthusiastically endorsed the president’s growth goals — in contrast to Ms Yellen, who has publicly doubted the administration’s 3 per cent growth target. Other possible candidates include Larry Lindsey, a former governor, and current Fed governor Jay Powell.

他們熱烈擁護(hù)總統(tǒng)提出的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)——這與耶倫相反，耶倫曾公開(kāi)質(zhì)疑特朗普政府提出的3%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。其他可能出任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的人選還有前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事拉里•林塞(Larry Lindsey)，以及現(xiàn)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)理事杰伊•鮑威爾(Jay Powell)。

Jon Faust, who was an adviser to Ms Yellen at the Fed and is now at Johns Hopkins University, does not believe the drafters of the Fed’s legislation envisaged a president appointing such a large chunk of the Board of Governors all at once. He has concerns about who will emerge from the White House pipeline. “One president doing five [appointments] at once is not good thing — and with this president is more worrisome,” he said.

現(xiàn)任約翰霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins University)教授的喬恩•福斯特(Jon Faust)，曾在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擔(dān)任耶倫的顧問(wèn)，他認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)法案的起草者們不曾設(shè)想一位總統(tǒng)能一次性任命這么多位理事。對(duì)于白宮準(zhǔn)備任命誰(shuí)，他憂心忡忡。他說(shuō)：“一個(gè)總統(tǒng)一次作出五個(gè)任命并非一件好事——而且現(xiàn)在這位總統(tǒng)更令人擔(dān)憂。”

That said, Mr Quarles, whose candidacy was being considered on the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, has won praise from the banking world as a highly experienced hand, even if Democrats expressed dismay over his willingness to loosen post-crisis regulation. Marvin Goodfriend, a former Richmond Fed economist, is another likely Trump appointee to the board, and he enjoys the respect of monetary economists.

盡管如此，9月7日參議院銀行業(yè)委員會(huì)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始考慮夸爾斯的理事候選人資格，盡管民主黨對(duì)夸爾斯贊成放松危機(jī)后實(shí)施的監(jiān)管表示失望，但作為一位經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的老手，夸爾斯還是贏得了銀行界的好評(píng)。馬爾文•古德弗蘭德(Marvin Goodfriend)是另一位特朗普可能會(huì)任命的理事，古德弗蘭德曾是里士滿聯(lián)儲(chǔ)銀行(Richmond Fed)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，深受貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家尊敬。

Both of those individuals have advocated the use of stricter rules governing monetary policy, while Mr Warsh has advocated a smaller footprint for the central bank. None represents a radical break from monetary policy orthodoxy, however.

這兩名候選人都主張采用更加嚴(yán)格的規(guī)則來(lái)管理貨幣政策，而沃什提倡縮小美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的影響力。然而，他們誰(shuí)也沒(méi)有徹底突破正統(tǒng)的貨幣政策。

“They are in the responsible mainstream of Republican thought on these issues,” said Ted Truman, a former Fed official who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“他們都代表了共和黨在這些問(wèn)題上的主流思想，”前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)官員泰德•杜魯門(mén)(Ted Truman)說(shuō)，杜魯門(mén)現(xiàn)在是彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的非常駐高級(jí)研究員。

The bigger problem, he argues, is there are “so many holes” on the board of an institution with broad powers over markets and the US and world economies — creating uncertain conditions in global markets. “You want a firm hand at the tiller, and that argues for getting on with some other appointments and resolving the chairmanship by the middle of November,” he said.

他認(rèn)為更大的問(wèn)題在于，一個(gè)對(duì)市場(chǎng)、對(duì)美國(guó)和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)擁有廣泛影響力的機(jī)構(gòu)，其理事會(huì)居然會(huì)“出現(xiàn)這么多職位空缺”——由此在全球市場(chǎng)上造成諸多不確定條件。他說(shuō)：“人們需要一個(gè)堅(jiān)定的舵手，因此需要在11月中旬之前，繼續(xù)任命其他理事并確定主席人選。”

Mr Trump’s record of hesitation and false starts on appointments means such a smooth handover of power at the Fed cannot be guaranteed.

特朗普過(guò)往的猶豫不決，以及在任命方面的糟糕開(kāi)端，意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)權(quán)力的順利交接無(wú)法得到保證。