美國(guó)商界對(duì)特朗普的期待還能持續(xù)多久？

When Donald Trump won the race for the White House last year, markets rallied. The so-called “Trump trade” rested on the hope that the US president would deliver business friendly reforms that would boost growth. This was a bit of a misnomer: what executives and investors have really been betting on for most of this year is a “Cohn trade”.

去年，當(dāng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得總統(tǒng)大選后，市場(chǎng)大漲。所謂的“特朗普交易”依賴于這種希望：這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)將兌現(xiàn)對(duì)企業(yè)有利的改革，從而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。這有點(diǎn)用詞不當(dāng)：在今年的大多數(shù)時(shí)間，公司高管和投資者真正押注的是“科恩交易”。

After all, it is now clear that the president has limited ability to focus on the grubby details of economic reform. It is also evident that business issues sit below economic nationalism on the agenda for the likes of Steve Bannon, White House adviser. Just look at Mr Bannon’s comments to The American Prospect magazine this week, in which he argues that America is locked in a zero-sum contest with China.

畢竟，這位總統(tǒng)顯然在關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的復(fù)雜細(xì)節(jié)方面能力有限。同樣很明顯的是，在白宮首席戰(zhàn)略師史蒂夫•班農(nóng)(Steve Bannon)等人的議程上，商業(yè)問(wèn)題的排序低于經(jīng)濟(jì)民族主義(本文中文版發(fā)布時(shí)班農(nóng)已離開(kāi)特朗普政府——譯者注)。你只需看看班農(nóng)最近向《美國(guó)前景》(The American Prospect)雜志發(fā)表的言論就明白了，他主張，美國(guó)陷入了與中國(guó)之間的零和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

Yet even as Mr Trump’s behaviour becomes more capricious, executives have continued to hope — or pray — that Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council, would support them. To be sure, the former Goldman Sachs president never displayed any interest in public policy or economic theory before arriving in the White House. His Wall Street rivals tend to view him as an opportunist who plays hard. But Mr Cohn is smart, knows how to execute plans and understands free market incentives; or so went the chatter in the upper echelons of Wall Street.

然而，即便特朗普的行為變得更加反復(fù)無(wú)常，公司高管繼續(xù)希望(或者說(shuō)祈禱)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)(National Economic Council)主席加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)將支持他們。應(yīng)該明確的是，這位高盛(Goldman Sachs)前總裁在來(lái)到白宮之前從未對(duì)公共政策或經(jīng)濟(jì)理論表現(xiàn)出興趣。他在華爾街的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手傾向于把他視為一個(gè)用功的機(jī)會(huì)主義者。但科恩很聰明，他知道如何執(zhí)行計(jì)劃，也理解自由市場(chǎng)激勵(lì);至少華爾街的上層階級(jí)在閑談時(shí)是這么說(shuō)的。

He has talked about sensible — achievable — goals, such as reforming air traffic control. He had a team of allies, such as Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary and fellow Goldman alumnus; Elaine Chao, transport secretary; and Dina Powell, deputy national security adviser. Mr Cohn was the one who tended to handle the phone calls when chief executives threatened to leave the president’s (now disbanded) business councils in recent months.

他談?wù)摿嗣髦?且可實(shí)現(xiàn))的目標(biāo)，例如改革空中交通管制。他有一個(gè)盟友團(tuán)隊(duì)，例如財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)、之前也在高盛任職的史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin);交通部長(zhǎng)趙小蘭(Elaine Chao);以及副國(guó)家安全顧問(wèn)迪娜•鮑威爾(Dina Powell)。最近幾個(gè)月，科恩往往會(huì)在首席執(zhí)行官們威脅要離開(kāi)總統(tǒng)(如今已解散)的商界顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)時(shí)接電話。

The question that investors and executives are asking is whether that “Cohn trade” still works. It certainly looks like a higher risk bet. Never mind the fact that Mr Cohn and John Kelly, the president’s chief of staff, failed to stop Mr Trump from making his inflammatory comments this week about the Charlottesville protests. What is most telling is that this disaster happened at the very moment that Mr Cohn’s star was supposed to shine.

投資者和公司高管在問(wèn)的問(wèn)題是，“科恩交易”是否仍然明智?它看上去肯定是一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高的賭注。且不提這個(gè)事實(shí)：科恩和白宮幕僚長(zhǎng)約翰•凱利(John Kelly)未能阻止特朗普最近就夏洛茨維爾市的抗議活動(dòng)發(fā)表煽動(dòng)性言論。最能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題的是，這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難發(fā)生在本該讓科恩閃光的場(chǎng)合。

The news conference at Trump Tower on Tuesday was called to support infrastructure reforms being developed by Messrs Cohn and Mnuchin, and Ms Chao. These proposals were depressingly short of detail. But the direction — cutting red tape, speeding up approvals — was sensible. The fact that they have now been drowned out is sadly symbolic.

特朗普大廈(Trump Tower)上周二召集新聞發(fā)布會(huì)，本來(lái)是為了支持科恩、姆努欽和趙小蘭正在制定的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改革。這些方案令人沮喪地缺乏細(xì)節(jié)。但是大方向是明智的：減少官僚手續(xù)、加快審批。結(jié)果它們被爭(zhēng)議言論淹沒(méi)，具有令人悲哀的象征意義。

This does not necessarily mean that all the investor optimism around the Cohn trade has disappeared. Stock markets are still flushed with oodles of central bank liquidity and boosted by moderate economic growth. And one important detail about the Cohn-cum-Trump trade that is often forgotten is that markets did not merely rally because business hoped reforms would get done. Executives were also excited about what might not occur under Mr Trump — Barack Obama-style regulatory creep.

這不一定意味著投資者對(duì)于“科恩交易”的所有樂(lè)觀情緒都已消失。股市仍充斥著央行的巨額流動(dòng)性，并受到溫和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的助推。有關(guān)“科恩+特朗普交易”的一個(gè)經(jīng)常被遺忘的重要細(xì)節(jié)是，市場(chǎng)并不只是因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)期待改革落實(shí)而上漲。此外，公司高管們對(duì)于在特朗普任下可能不會(huì)發(fā)生的事情感到振奮：巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)主政時(shí)的那種監(jiān)管越來(lái)越多的局面。

That sense of relief about regulatory inaction will not disappear just because of this week’s drama. The ideological bent of the people who Mr Trump has appointed into regulatory roles probably matters more than any legislative moves, or White House dramas. Bankers are thrilled, for example, that Jay Clayton, the head of the Securities Exchange Commission, is emphasising measures to boost capital formation, not enforcement or bank reform. Ajit Pai, the head of the Federal Communication Commission, has signalled that he his less concerned about monopoly power in the media. Democrats are horrified; stock market bulls are cheering.

對(duì)監(jiān)管不作為的那種如釋重負(fù)的感覺(jué)，不會(huì)僅僅因?yàn)樯现艿膽騽⌒允录?。特朗普任命的監(jiān)管官員的意識(shí)形態(tài)傾向，很可能比任何立法舉措或者白宮戲劇更重要。例如，美國(guó)證交會(huì)(SEC)主席杰伊•克萊頓(Jay Clayton)強(qiáng)調(diào)要采取措施促進(jìn)資本形成，而不是執(zhí)法或者銀行改革，這讓銀行家們感到振奮。美國(guó)聯(lián)邦通信委員會(huì)(FCC)主席阿吉特•帕伊(Ajit Pai)發(fā)出信號(hào)表示，他不怎么擔(dān)心媒體行業(yè)的壟斷勢(shì)力。民主黨人感到震驚，看多股市的人們歡欣鼓舞。

Nevertheless, as an analyst note from Bank of Montreal observes, “the focus [for investors] has now turned to Gary Cohn and his commitment to the administration”. That hangs in the balance. On Wednesday Mr Cohn and the president’s daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, both senior White House advisers, tried to salvage their reputations by telling journalists (anonymously) that they were “disgusted” by Mr Trump’s failure to condemn neo-Nazis. But they know that many observers, including some of their close friends, consider this woefully inadequate, particularly given that Charlottesville demonstrators chanted explicit anti-Jewish slogans.

然而，正如蒙特利爾銀行(Bank of Montreal)的一份分析師簡(jiǎn)報(bào)指出的那樣，“(投資者的)焦點(diǎn)已轉(zhuǎn)向加里•科恩及其對(duì)特朗普政府的承諾。”這種承諾尚存變數(shù)。上周三，科恩與特朗普的女兒伊萬(wàn)卡•特朗普(Ivanka Trump)和女婿賈里德•庫(kù)什納(Jared Kushner)——兩人均是白宮的高級(jí)顧問(wèn)——試圖挽救自己的名聲，他們(匿名地)告訴記者，他們對(duì)特朗普未能譴責(zé)新納粹主義感到“惡心”。但他們知道，許多觀察人士(包括他們的一些密友)認(rèn)為這根本不夠，尤其是考慮到夏洛茨維爾的抗議人群喊出了露骨的反猶太人口號(hào)。

Mr Kushner is a proud orthodox Jew, who is heading to Israel this weekend to promote Middle East peace. Mr Cohn created a Jewish centre at Kent University, Ohio, that is a “home-away-from-home” for 1,500 Jewish students and bears his name. The reputational stain from this week’s events is considerable.

庫(kù)什納是一名驕傲的正統(tǒng)派猶太教徒，他定于上周末前往以色列推動(dòng)中東和平?？贫髟诙砗ザ碇菘咸卮髮W(xué)(Kent University)創(chuàng)立了一個(gè)以其名字命名的猶太人中心，讓1500名猶太學(xué)生有一個(gè)“異鄉(xiāng)的家園”。上周事件對(duì)名聲的影響相當(dāng)大。

Maybe all of this will create so much pressure on Mr Cohn that he resigns. I would not bet on it yet. His camp still thinks — or hopes — that Mr Trump is so isolated that some sense of normalcy will prevail, allowing them infrastructure and tax reform. They also hope that Mr Bannon will be forced out. “This is not the end of the story,” mutters one executive, who knows Mr Cohn well.

或許所有這些都會(huì)給科恩帶來(lái)巨大壓力，促使他辭職。我還不會(huì)打賭這會(huì)發(fā)生。他的陣營(yíng)仍認(rèn)為(或者說(shuō)希望)在特朗普深陷孤立的情況下，某種正常感將會(huì)占上風(fēng)，讓他們推進(jìn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和稅收改革。他們還希望，班農(nóng)將被迫離開(kāi)。一位了解科恩的高管說(shuō)道：“這不是故事的結(jié)尾。”

Either way, for the moment the “Cohn trade” is still alive; but the White House — or Trumpian royal court — is in a state of open civil war and chaos. It is a fool’s errand to predict how this dismal saga will end. But stock market bulls had better hope that global central banks keep propping asset prices up.

無(wú)論怎樣，就目前而言，“科恩交易”仍會(huì)繼續(xù);但白宮(或者說(shuō)“特朗普皇室”)陷入了公開(kāi)的內(nèi)斗和混亂。預(yù)測(cè)這場(chǎng)鬧劇如何收?qǐng)鍪遣豢赡艿摹５墒卸囝^們最好希望，各國(guó)央行會(huì)繼續(xù)支撐資產(chǎn)價(jià)格。