美聯(lián)儲對何時開始縮表意見不一

Several Federal Reserve policymakers were prepared to announce a start date for the US central bank’s unwind of its crisis-era economic stimulus last month but they were outnumbered by those who preferred to wait.

美聯(lián)儲(Fed)的數(shù)名政策制定者本來有意在上月宣布開始“解除”金融危機(jī)中出臺的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃的時間，但傾向于繼續(xù)等待的人更多。

Minutes of the Fed’s July rate-setting meeting revealed differences of opinion on when to begin the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet, together with growing concern among some policymakers over low inflation, which bolsters the case against quick tightening.

美聯(lián)儲7月議息會議紀(jì)要表明，政策制定者對于何時開始收縮美聯(lián)儲資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表存在意見分歧，同時部分政策制定者對通脹偏低感到更加擔(dān)心了，這讓不宜迅速收緊貨幣政策的理由更加充分了。

Fed chair Janet Yellen has spent the year preparing for the landmark moment when the Fed puts its quantitative easing programme into reverse and the minutes said “several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the [unwind] program at the current meeting”.

美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)今年以來一直在準(zhǔn)備迎接將量化寬松計劃逆轉(zhuǎn)的里程碑時刻。會議紀(jì)要上寫道：“數(shù)名與會者已準(zhǔn)備好在本次會議上宣布(縮表)計劃的起始日期。”

Any such announcement could have jolted markets as investors have been betting that the process could begin as soon as September.

假如美聯(lián)儲在會議結(jié)束后宣布了這樣的消息，很可能使金融市場受到震動，因為投資者一直猜測美聯(lián)儲會從9月開始縮表。

In the end, however, “most [policymakers] preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets”, according to the record of the July 25-26 meeting.

不過，7月25-26日會議的紀(jì)要顯示，最后“多數(shù)(政策制定者)更傾向于推遲到下次會議再做出這個決定，同時收集更多關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)前景和可能影響金融市場的動向的信息”。

The Fed stuck to its previous language in saying that policymakers “generally agreed” that implementation of the balance sheet unwind should begin “relatively soon”, barring adverse developments in the economy or financial markets.

美聯(lián)儲沿用之前的說法，即政策制定者“普遍認(rèn)為”應(yīng)該“相對較快地”開始縮表，除非經(jīng)濟(jì)或金融市場出現(xiàn)不利發(fā)展。

The minutes also pointed to rising concern about “softness” in inflation among some policymakers, who argued it meant the Fed should not rush into its next interest rate increase following two already this year.

會議紀(jì)要還指出，部分政策制定者越來越擔(dān)心通脹“疲軟”，他們認(rèn)為這意味著美聯(lián)儲在今年兩次加息后不應(yīng)該倉促進(jìn)行下一次加息。

The minutes said “some participants . . . observed that the [monetary policy] committee could afford to be patient under current circumstances in deciding when to increase the federal funds rate further and argued against additional adjustments until incoming information confirmed that the recent low readings on inflation were not likely to persist”.

會議紀(jì)要中寫道：“部分與會者……評論說，(貨幣政策)委員會在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下等得起，可以在決定何時進(jìn)一步上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率這件事上保持耐心。他們認(rèn)為，在新的信息證實近期的低通脹讀數(shù)不可能持續(xù)之前，不應(yīng)進(jìn)一步調(diào)整利率。”

Others, however, took an opposing view, cautioning that “a delay in gradually removing policy accommodation could result in an overshooting of the committee’s inflation objective that would likely be costly to reverse”.

然而，其他人則持相反觀點，他們警告稱，“推遲逐步消除政策寬松度的步伐，可能導(dǎo)致通脹水平超過委員會的目標(biāo)值，這可能需要付出很大代價才能逆轉(zhuǎn)”。

The Fed scooped up trillions of dollars of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during the crisis and has been reinvesting the proceeds of securities as they mature, maintaining its balance sheet at about $4.5tn. Unwinding its balance sheet would entail ceasing reinvesting the proceeds of securities as they mature.

在金融危機(jī)期間，美聯(lián)儲購買了數(shù)萬億美元的美國國債和抵押貸款支持證券，并且在這些證券到期后將收益用于再投資，使其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模維持在約4.5萬億美元的水平。縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表意味著要在證券到期后停止把收益用于再投資。

Fresh domestic political turmoil on Wednesday, coupled with relatively dovish Fed minutes sent US bond yields and the dollar sharply lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond – which moves inversely to price – fell 5.3 basis points to 2.22 per cent on the low inflation concerns expressed by some Fed members.

美國國內(nèi)周三發(fā)生新的政治動蕩，加上美聯(lián)儲會議紀(jì)要偏于鴿派立場，使得美國債券收益率和美元匯率大幅下跌。由于部分美聯(lián)儲官員對低通脹表示擔(dān)憂，基準(zhǔn)10年期美國國債收益率(與價格走向相反)下跌5.3個基點，至2.22%。