民生銀行的大股東包袱
有很多理由讓人對中國民生銀行(China Minsheng Bank)的前景感到悲觀。
Some of them are fundamental, the sort of universal issues that portend weakness and therefore downside risk for investors. Crucially for the bank, there is a complex mix of finance and politics, given that several of Minsheng’s large shareholders have fallen foul of China’s crackdown on companies that have borrowed large amounts of money to finance a wave of foreign investments.
一部分理由是基本面上的，民生銀行存在那種預(yù)示著疲弱前景、因而將使投資者面臨股價下跌風(fēng)險的一般性問題。最要緊的是，民生銀行還面臨一個牽扯到財務(wù)和政治兩方面的復(fù)雜問題：中國正對一些通過大舉借貸接二連三地投資海外的公司發(fā)起打擊行動，而民生銀行的若干大股東就撞到了槍口上。
The likes of Anbang Insurance, Fosun, Dalian Wanda and HNA Group have infuriated regulators with their lack of financial prudence, their excess borrowing, and their investments abroad at a time when authorities are trying to limit capital outflows. Unfortunately for Minsheng, it has close ties with two of the four companies that are targeted: Anbang and Fosun.
安邦保險(Anbang Insurance)、復(fù)星(Fosun)、大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)和海航集團(HNA Group)等公司因缺乏財務(wù)審慎、過度舉債，并且在當局竭力限制資本外流時還投資海外，激怒了監(jiān)管機構(gòu)。不幸的是，民生銀行與這四家被監(jiān)管機構(gòu)當作目標的公司中的兩家關(guān)系密切，就是安邦和復(fù)星。
For investors like Wang Qiang, the chief investment officer of Pinpoint Asset Management in Shanghai, Minsheng has become a proxy for Beijing’s war against several privately owned enterprises that have flouted its wishes.
對于像上海保銀投資管理有限公司(Pinpoint Asset Management)首席投資官王強這樣的投資人來說，在北京打擊數(shù)家無視其愿望的私人企業(yè)的行動中，民生銀行跟著遭受了池魚之殃。
That is why one of his favourite trades involves buying China Merchants Bank, another joint stock bank, while selling Minsheng. Indeed, while shares in Minsheng have dropped nearly 4 per cent this year, those of China Merchants Bank have surged 46 per cent.
所以他現(xiàn)在最喜歡做的交易之一是買進另一家股份制銀行招商銀行(China Merchants Bank)的股票，同時賣出民生銀行股票。事實上，今年以來，民生銀行股價跌了將近4%，而招商銀行股價則大漲了46%。
As one of China’s second tier joint stock banks, as opposed to the Big Four state-owned banks such as ICBC, Minsheng looks vulnerable on both financial and political counts, given its parentage, which today has potentially become its biggest liability.
作為中國第二梯隊的股份制銀行——相對于工行等“四大”國有銀行來講——之一，民生銀行無論在財務(wù)上還是在政治方面都顯得脆弱，“家世”很可能已成為它最大的包袱。
Four units of Anbang, the insurer founded by Wu Xiao Hui, who has been detained by the authorities in Beijing, are among the bank’s largest shareholders, and control over 15.5 per cent of the shares, its first quarter report states. Meanwhile Yao Dafeng, a director and vice-president of the Anbang parent, Anbang Insurance Group, has been a non-executive director of Minsheng since 2014, according to the 2016 annual report.
根據(jù)民生銀行今年第一季度的財報，三家安邦系公司位居該行前十大股東之列，合計持有逾15.5%股份。另外，根據(jù)民生銀行2016年財報，安邦保險集團董事、副總經(jīng)理姚大鋒自2014年起一直擔任該行非執(zhí)行董事。安邦保險集團的創(chuàng)始人吳小暉不久前在北京被有關(guān)部門帶走。
At the same time, a second of the gang of four firms, Fosun was a big shareholder as well, holding 11.6 per cent of the Hong Kong-listed shares of Minsheng until earlier this year, and its founder Guo Guangchang sat on the board. Fosun now holds about 1.5 per cent of the Hong Kong-listed shares in Minsheng.
復(fù)星也曾是民生銀行的大股東之一，在今年早些時候還持有該行H股的11.6%，創(chuàng)始人郭廣昌也曾是該行董事。目前復(fù)星大約持有民生銀行H股的1.5%。
Anbang’s shares are of concern and the prospect of a forced sale of those shares is one reason they have underperformed relative to their peers. What the fate of companies like Anbang will be and what will happen with their extensive assets both at home and abroad is unclear. Today, Anbang is under the close scrutiny of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, which is considering what to do about the insurer’s assets such as its stake in Minsheng, according to several people familiar with the situation.
安邦持有的民生股份受到關(guān)注，那些股份可能被迫出售，這是民生銀行跑輸同類股票的一個原因。像安邦這樣的公司會有什么樣的命運、它們在海內(nèi)外的眾多資產(chǎn)會發(fā)生什么變數(shù)，目前不得而知。如今中國保監(jiān)會(CIRC)正在緊盯著安邦，一些知情人士透露，保監(jiān)會正在考慮要怎么處理該保險集團的資產(chǎn)，比如它在民生銀行持有的股份。
Minsheng declined to comment on investor worries or about any recent changes in its shareholding.
民生銀行拒絕就投資者顧慮的問題或近期其股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)的變更發(fā)表評論。
If the bank’s fundamentals were better, all this would not matter much. But Minsheng’s fundamentals are less solid than those of almost all of its counterparts. “We think the bank’s current valuation can’t be justified given its weak capital position, vulnerable liquidity profile and large shadow banking book which is increasingly at risk with regulatory crackdowns,” note analysts at Sanford C Bernstein in Hong Kong.
如果該行基本面較好的話，這一切就問題不大。但民生銀行的基本面比幾乎所有同類銀行都不穩(wěn)健。“鑒于其薄弱的資本狀況、脆弱的流動性和龐大的影子銀行業(yè)務(wù)——這類業(yè)務(wù)在監(jiān)管層打擊下日益處于風(fēng)險之中——我們認為該行目前的估值是不合理的。”桑福德伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的香港分析師們表示。
Virtually all the major Chinese banks have plenty of deposits and are therefore relatively less sensitive to the periodic jitters that make shares on the mainland inherently unstable. However, here Minsheng is an outlier — it depends on the wholesale market for 30 per cent of its funding. That is never a good thing, but in China where regulators have been steadily raising the cost of interbank funding it is especially bad, and increasingly expensive.
幾乎所有大型中資銀行都吸收了大量存款，因此它們對于導(dǎo)致A股內(nèi)在不穩(wěn)定性的周期性波動不太敏感。然而，在這方面民生銀行是個異數(shù)，它有三成融資依靠批發(fā)市場獲得。這從來就不是一件好事，考慮到中國監(jiān)管機構(gòu)一直在穩(wěn)步地提高銀行同業(yè)融資的成本，這一點尤其糟糕，而且成本越來越高。
Moreover Minsheng is particularly involved in shadow banking transactions. Today regulators are forcing such products into the sunshine of the loan book from the murkier investment receivables category, forcing Minsheng and others like it to set aside more capital for these exposures.
此外，民生銀行還大量涉足影子銀行交易。目前監(jiān)管機構(gòu)正強制銀行將此類產(chǎn)品從“應(yīng)收款項類投資”這種較不透明的項目下轉(zhuǎn)移到一目了然的貸款賬簿，這迫使民生銀行等要對這些敞口撥備更多資本。
“Minsheng is the only major bank not owned by the government or a state-owned enterprise.” says Matthew Phan an analyst with research house CreditSights. By contrast, China Merchants has far stronger capital and liquidity, he adds. To invest in a bank that maintains close ties to the government and state-owned enterprises and has an impressive management and strategy such as Merchants seems increasingly the prudent thing to do.
“民生是唯一非政府或國企所有的大型銀行，”研究機構(gòu)CreditSights的分析師Matthew Phan說道。他還說，相比之下，招商銀行的資本和流動性都要強得多。投資像招行這樣與政府和國企保持著密切關(guān)系、有著出色管理層和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的銀行越發(fā)顯得是謹慎之舉。
