中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)牛肉“很有胃口”
本月，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將一項(xiàng)恢復(fù)美國(guó)對(duì)華牛肉出口的協(xié)議譽(yù)為對(duì)華貿(mào)易談判取得的初步勝利。
“China just agreed that the US will be allowed to sell beef, and other major products, into China once again,” the US president tweeted. “This is REAL news!”
“中國(guó)剛剛答應(yīng)允許美國(guó)再次向中國(guó)出售牛肉和其他重要產(chǎn)品，”這位美國(guó)總統(tǒng)在Twitter上發(fā)帖稱：“這是真新聞!”
But prime American steak is already on the menu at many mainland restaurants despite a ban in place since a 2003 case of mad cow disease: there is a flourishing grey market in secondary imports from Hong Kong, where the curbs did not apply.
不過，盡管2003年美國(guó)爆發(fā)瘋牛病后中國(guó)出臺(tái)禁令禁止進(jìn)口美國(guó)牛肉，但優(yōu)質(zhì)美國(guó)牛排早已出現(xiàn)在中國(guó)內(nèi)地許多餐廳的菜單上：這是因?yàn)榇嬖谝粋€(gè)繁榮的、從香港二次進(jìn)口的灰色市場(chǎng)，香港并不適用這項(xiàng)禁令。
“That’s a secret,” said a waiter at New York Style Steak & Burger in Shanghai when asked how it sourced its meat.
“這是個(gè)秘密，”上海New York Style Steak & Burger的一名侍者在被問及該店牛肉的采購地時(shí)說。
Cuts destined for China could make up half of US beef exports to Hong Kong, according to Chenjun Pan, an analyst at Rabobank — a figure that would represent more than $340m of meat a year.
運(yùn)往中國(guó)內(nèi)地的牛排，可能占美國(guó)對(duì)香港牛肉出口的一半，荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)分析師潘晨軍(Chenjun Pan)表示，這相當(dāng)于每年3.4億美元的牛排。
The official revival of US beef exports to China stands to benefit big producers such as Tyson, which have missed out on a boom in Chinese beef demand. Chinese imports of the meat have soared in recent years, reaching $2.5bn last year — up 700 per cent on 2012 — as rising incomes boost meat consumption while relatively inefficient domestic producers struggle to keep up with demand.
美國(guó)正式恢復(fù)對(duì)華牛肉出口，將有利于泰臣(Tyson)等大型生產(chǎn)商。這些生產(chǎn)商錯(cuò)過了中國(guó)牛肉需求的高速增長(zhǎng)。近年來，中國(guó)肉類進(jìn)口額大幅增長(zhǎng)，去年達(dá)25億美元，較2012年高了700%。中國(guó)人的收入增長(zhǎng)提振了肉類消費(fèi)，而國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)效率相對(duì)較低，難以跟上市場(chǎng)需求。
Several Chinese importers told the Financial Times they were keen to start buying premium grain-fed US beef as soon as possible.
一些中國(guó)進(jìn)口商告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》，他們很樂意盡快開始采購優(yōu)質(zhì)的美國(guó)谷飼牛肉。
Although most of China’s imports are of lower-priced grass-fed beef from Brazil, Uruguay and Australia, US beef has long been perceived as higher quality, and it is this that has fuelled the grey market trade via Hong Kong.
雖然中國(guó)進(jìn)口的大部分牛肉是來自巴西、烏拉圭和澳大利亞的價(jià)格較低的草飼牛肉，但美國(guó)牛肉長(zhǎng)期以來一直被認(rèn)為品質(zhì)更高，正是這一點(diǎn)推動(dòng)了經(jīng)香港進(jìn)口美國(guó)牛肉的灰色市場(chǎng)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。
Zhou Wenjie, a buyer at an import business based in Jiangsu province, said the prevalence of smuggling would set a ceiling on future prices. US beef is expected to sell for higher prices than those charged for Australian meat, which retails online from about Rmb80 ($11) per kilogramme, but lower than those for Canadian beef, which starts at roughly Rmb120, he estimated.
江蘇省一家進(jìn)口企業(yè)的采購員周文杰(音譯)表示，走私活動(dòng)大行其道會(huì)為未來的價(jià)格設(shè)定上限。預(yù)計(jì)，美國(guó)牛肉的售價(jià)會(huì)高于澳大利亞牛肉(網(wǎng)上零售價(jià)最低為每公斤80元人民幣左右)，但低于加拿大牛肉(最低為每公斤120元人民幣左右)。
The existence of the grey channel “means the mainland has a lot of demand,” Henry Huang, managing director at beef importer JOC Australia, told the Financial Times. “US beef is acceptable in China. I think the price of high-quality grass-fed beef will crash a little bit, because the US has very good advantage in high-quality cuts.”
灰色渠道的存在“意味著中國(guó)內(nèi)地的需求很大”，牛肉進(jìn)口商JOC Australia的董事總經(jīng)理Henry Huang告訴英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》，“美國(guó)牛肉在中國(guó)受到好評(píng)。我認(rèn)為，優(yōu)質(zhì)草飼牛肉的價(jià)格會(huì)略微下滑，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)在優(yōu)質(zhì)牛排方面擁有很大優(yōu)勢(shì)。”
Yu Xuerong, chairman of food importer Shanghai Paradise Garden, said his company would “certainly import US beef”. He said that it was popular before the ban, and that he was in contact with Cargill, the world’s biggest agricultural commodities merchant.
食品進(jìn)口商上海天萃庭健康食品有限公司(Shanghai Paradise Garden)董事長(zhǎng)余學(xué)榮表示，他的公司“肯定會(huì)進(jìn)口美國(guó)牛肉”。他說，禁令出臺(tái)前美國(guó)牛肉很受歡迎，他正在與全球最大的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易商嘉吉(Cargill)進(jìn)行接觸。
China’s opening to the US has been in the works for a long time, with an initial announcement in the final months of the Obama administration. But analysts warn that it may take many more years for a large-scale beef supply chain from the US to China to mature.
中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)牛肉開放市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)籌備很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間了，中方最初宣布開放市場(chǎng)的消息時(shí)，奧巴馬(Obama)政府離任期結(jié)束還剩幾個(gè)月。不過，分析師警告稱，一條從美國(guó)到中國(guó)的大型牛肉供應(yīng)鏈可能還需要好多年才能成熟。
In a possible harbinger of what awaits the US, Ireland announced the relaunch of beef exports to China in 2015 only to meet a series of bureaucratic hurdles, and the trade in beef has yet to start flowing.
2015年，愛爾蘭宣布重啟對(duì)華牛肉出口，結(jié)果遭遇了一系列官僚障礙，牛肉出口至今尚未啟動(dòng)。這預(yù)示著美國(guó)可能會(huì)遭遇的情形。
Meanwhile, specifics such as tariffs and standards for producers have yet to be decided.
另一方面，關(guān)稅和生產(chǎn)商標(biāo)準(zhǔn)等具體細(xì)節(jié)尚未敲定。
“We can evaluate the scope of this potential . . . only after we see the details of the import conditions,” said Joel Haggard of the US Meat Export Federation.
“只有在看到進(jìn)口條件的細(xì)節(jié)之后，我們才能評(píng)估這種潛力有多大，”美國(guó)肉類出口協(xié)會(huì)(US Meat Export Federation)的何嘉德(Joel Haggard)說。
