穆迪下調(diào)評(píng)級(jí)凸顯中國(guó)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)

Less than two weeks after China said it would open its domestic market to US rating agencies, Moody’s cut its credit rating for the first time in a quarter of a century.

就在中國(guó)表示會(huì)向美國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)放國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)不到兩周后，穆迪(Moody's)在25年來(lái)首次調(diào)降了中國(guó)的信用評(píng)級(jí)。

It cited financial and economic risks flagged in recent months by Chinese officials, who were nonetheless quick to criticise the move. There followed automatic Moody’s downgrades of 26 state-owned enterprises with ratings tied to the government’s.

該機(jī)構(gòu)提到了最近幾個(gè)月中國(guó)官員曾指出的金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，不過(guò)后者很快對(duì)穆迪此舉提出了批評(píng)。之后，穆迪自動(dòng)下調(diào)了26個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)與中國(guó)政府掛鉤的國(guó)有企業(yè)的評(píng)級(jí)。

But while Moody’s decision yesterday will complicate efforts to attract foreign investors to the third-largest bond market, investors said it was unlikely to have a significant impact.

不過(guò)，盡管穆迪昨天的決定將加大吸引外國(guó)投資者進(jìn)入中國(guó)這一全球第三大債市的復(fù)雜性，投資者表示此舉不太可能產(chǎn)生重大影響。

The immediate reaction on China’s bond market was limited because domestic investors, which dominate, pay scant attention to foreign ratings. After a surge at the open, yields on benchmark five-year government bonds returned to 3.8 per cent.

中國(guó)債市的即時(shí)反應(yīng)十分有限，原因是占主導(dǎo)地位的國(guó)內(nèi)投資者很少注意國(guó)外評(píng)級(jí)。在一開(kāi)始飆升之后，基準(zhǔn)的五年期國(guó)債收益率又回落到3.8%。

Foreign penetration remains tiny, with overseas investors owning about Rmb424bn ($61.5bn) of government bonds at the end of April, equal to just 4 per cent of the outstanding total, according to China Central Depository and Clearing.

根據(jù)中國(guó)中央國(guó)債登記結(jié)算公司(China Central Depository and Clearing Corporation)的數(shù)據(jù)，境外投資者的滲透率依然很低，4月底他們持有的國(guó)債約為4240億元人民幣(合615億美元)，只相當(dāng)于國(guó)債總余額的4%。

But that is expected to change as Beijing takes steps to open the market to foreign capital, including a “bond connect” scheme allowing foreign investors to buy through Hong Kong brokers.

不過(guò)，隨著中國(guó)政府采取包括“債券通”(bond connect)機(jī)制在內(nèi)的措施、向外國(guó)資本開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)，這種局面預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)發(fā)生改變。債券通是一種能讓外國(guó)投資者通過(guò)香港經(jīng)紀(jì)商買入債券的機(jī)制。

Luke Spajic, head of Pimco’s emerging Asia portfolio in Singapore, noted Moody’s simultaneous decision to soften its China outlook from “negative” to “stable”. “This downgrade does not really derail China’s inevitable integration of bonds and equities with global capital markets,” he said. “That’s a secular story. A punchier move would have been to keep a negative outlook.”

太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)駐新加坡的新興亞洲投資組合主管盧克•斯帕伊奇(Luke Spajic)指出，穆迪同時(shí)還做出了軟化其對(duì)中國(guó)展望的決定，將其從“負(fù)面”調(diào)整為“穩(wěn)定”。他說(shuō)：“這次下調(diào)并未真正擾亂中國(guó)債市和股市與全球資本市場(chǎng)不可避免的整合過(guò)程。這是一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期過(guò)程。假如穆迪保持負(fù)面展望，打擊會(huì)更重一些。”

Many sovereign wealth and pension funds have mandates that require them to invest in bonds above a certain rating. The downgrade puts China’s sovereign rating on a par with those of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic.

許多主權(quán)財(cái)富基金和養(yǎng)老基金所受委托要求它們須投資于高于特定評(píng)級(jí)的債券。這次評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)，令中國(guó)的主權(quán)評(píng)級(jí)與以色列、沙特阿拉伯和捷克相當(dāng)。

China’s non-financial corporate debt is about 170 per cent of GDP, or about $18.9tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)的非金融性企業(yè)債務(wù)約為國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的170%，達(dá)到約18.9萬(wàn)億美元。

Moody’s action underscores the possibility that if US agencies start rating local bonds, a two-track system will result in which local and foreign agencies apply different standards.

穆迪的舉措凸顯出這樣一種可能性：一旦美國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)始為中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)債券評(píng)級(jí)，將導(dǎo)致一種中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)和外國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)采取不同評(píng)級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的雙軌系統(tǒng)。

Dagong Global Credit Rating, one of the four main domestic rating agencies, has never rated China below the US, Japan or Britain. It downgraded the US further in 2010 and 2013.

中國(guó)四家主要國(guó)內(nèi)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)之一大公國(guó)際資信評(píng)估公司(Dagong Global Credit Rating)，從未令中國(guó)的評(píng)級(jí)低于美國(guó)、日本或英國(guó)。該公司曾在2010年和2013年進(jìn)一步下調(diào)過(guò)美國(guó)的評(píng)級(jí)。

The unhappy response of the finance ministry raises the possibility that foreign agencies could face pressure if they issue a high-profile downgrade of a national champion. Alternatively, foreign agencies could find themselves unable to attract business if bond issuers, which pay for ratings, do not want to face tougher standards.

中國(guó)財(cái)政部對(duì)穆迪此舉不愉快的回應(yīng)，提高了這樣一種可能性——如果外國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)引人注目地下調(diào)一家國(guó)家冠軍企業(yè)的評(píng)級(jí)，可能會(huì)面臨壓力。又或者，外國(guó)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)自己無(wú)法吸引到業(yè)務(wù)，原因是為評(píng)級(jí)付錢的債券發(fā)行商不希望面對(duì)更嚴(yán)格的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

The ministry said Moody’s had not given the economy enough credit for its “steady upward momentum”, with first-quarter growth coming in at a higher than expected 6.9 per cent. “This year’s strong beginning shows the achievement of China’s reforms,” it said.

財(cái)政部表示，穆迪未能充分認(rèn)識(shí)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的“穩(wěn)中向好的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)”。一季度中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)6.9%，高于預(yù)期。財(cái)政部表示：“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)‘開(kāi)門紅’充分顯示供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的效果正在不斷顯現(xiàn)。”

China’s bond market is already in turmoil. Banks and other investors are grappling with new regulations designed to limit the use of borrowed money for bond investment.

中國(guó)債市已經(jīng)處于動(dòng)蕩之中。銀行及其他投資者正在竭力應(yīng)對(duì)限制借錢投資債券的新監(jiān)管規(guī)定。

As a result, the yield curve for government bonds inverted in mid-May after a short-term funding squeeze caused investors to dump short-dated paper.

結(jié)果是，由于短期資金收緊導(dǎo)致投資者拋售短期國(guó)債，5月中旬國(guó)債收益率曲線曾出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)。

Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the Moody’s decision was “sensible” in view of tightened liquidity in China’s capital markets and economic growth that was still at its lowest since 1990. “Bond defaults are likely to rise because of the deterioration in the external environment,” Professor Zhu said.

清華大學(xué)(Tsinghua University)金融學(xué)教授朱寧表示，鑒于中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性收緊、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍處于1990年來(lái)最低水平，穆迪的決定是“合理的”。他表示：“由于外部環(huán)境的惡化，債券違約可能會(huì)增加。”

But in a bond market that at its peak last autumn was widely seen as a bubble, some foreign investors consider the shakeout positive.

不過(guò)，對(duì)于去年秋天到達(dá)頂峰時(shí)被廣泛視為泡沫的中國(guó)債市，部分外國(guó)投資者認(rèn)為這輪拋售是有積極意義的。

“China’s recent regulatory tightening should help deflate the country’s credit markets and lead to long-term market stabilisation,” said Luc Froehlich, head of Asian fixed income at Fidelity International in Hong Kong.

富達(dá)國(guó)際(Fidelity International)駐香港的亞洲固定收益部門負(fù)責(zé)人盧克•弗勒利希(Luc Froehlich)表示：“中國(guó)最近收緊監(jiān)管，應(yīng)該有助于為該國(guó)信貸市場(chǎng)去泡沫，并有助于長(zhǎng)期市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定。”