美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬數(shù)據(jù)顯示不祥預(yù)兆

If you utter the words “hard versus soft” in Washington policy circles, it usually signals the start of an earnest foreign policy debate. Not right now, however.

如果你在華盛頓政策圈提到“硬、軟”的問(wèn)題，它通常標(biāo)志著一場(chǎng)激烈外交政策辯論的開端。不過(guò)不是現(xiàn)在。

For as the presidency of Donald Trump approaches its 100-day milestone, a mystery is opening up around the US economy about what the “soft” and “hard” economic signals mean. This is a debate that investors urgently need to watch — not to mention policymakers too.

原因是在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)上任近100天之際，圍繞美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)謎團(tuán)，焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題是“軟”、“硬”經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào)意味著什么。這是一場(chǎng)投資者亟需關(guān)注的辯論，更別提政策制定者了。

The issue at stake is that if you look at recent so-called soft economic signals — those linked to sentiment — Mr Trump seems to be enjoying extraordinary success. Since he won the election, business confidence has surged: the National Federation of Independent Business survey reached its highest level in January since 2004, while the Business Roundtable CEO economic outlook survey displayed the biggest jump in the first quarter of the year since 2009.

問(wèn)題是這樣的：如果你看看近期的所謂“軟”經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào)(與情緒掛鉤的經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào))，特朗普似乎獲得了極大的成功。自他贏得選舉以來(lái)，企業(yè)信心飆升：全美獨(dú)立企業(yè)聯(lián)盟(National Federation of Independent Businesses, NFIB)的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，今年1月信心指數(shù)達(dá)到自2004年以來(lái)的最高水平，同時(shí)商業(yè)圓桌會(huì)議(Business Roundtable)的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，今年第一季度首席執(zhí)行官們對(duì)前景的樂觀情緒出現(xiàn)自2009年以來(lái)最大幅度的飆升。

More remarkably still, consumer sentiment jumped to a 17-year high last month in the University of Michigan’s survey. That, coupled with a fall in unemployment to 4.5 per cent and rising wages, has prompted consumers to borrow more: credit card debt rose above $1tn for the first time since 2008 in April.

更引人注目的是，密歇根大學(xué)(University of Michigan)的調(diào)查顯示，上月消費(fèi)者情緒飆升至17年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)，再加上失業(yè)率降至4.5%以及薪資上漲，消費(fèi)者開始加大借款：4月信用卡債務(wù)自2008年以來(lái)首次升至1萬(wàn)億美元以上。

But if you look at most “hard” data — statistics about tangible economic activity — Mr Trump’s presidency does not seem a success. Last month manufacturing activity dropped for the first time in seven months, along with housing starts. Retail spending fell 0.2 per cent in March, the second month of decline, while consumer prices unexpectedly slid. Corporate investment has remained flat.

但如果你看看多數(shù)“硬”數(shù)據(jù)(有形經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù))，特朗普的總統(tǒng)任期似乎算不上成功。上月，制造業(yè)活動(dòng)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)7個(gè)月以來(lái)的首次下降，新屋開工數(shù)同樣如此。3月零售支出下降0.2%，這是該數(shù)據(jù)連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下降，同時(shí)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)意外走低。企業(yè)投資依然沒有起色。

As a result, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s “Gross Domestic Product Now” indicator, which is a composite of hard data, suggests the economy grew just 0.5 per cent in the first three months of 2017. This is slower than last year. It is also well below the 4 per cent growth rate that Mr Trump promised to deliver on the election trail.

其結(jié)果是，亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Atlanta Federal Reserve)的“當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值”指標(biāo)(一個(gè)硬數(shù)據(jù)的綜合指標(biāo))似乎表明，2017年頭3個(gè)月美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)僅增長(zhǎng)了0.5%。這低于去年。它也遠(yuǎn)低于特朗普在競(jìng)選期間承諾的4%的增速。

So what explains this split? The optimistic explanation is that this is merely a time lag effect. Hard economic signals tend to be backward-looking, since these capture activity that has already occurred, after a delay; soft data, by contrast, are about future expectations. So if you want to be upbeat — as many investors seem determined to be — you can argue (or hope) that this upturn in sentiment will eventually spark more tangible economic growth, as Mr Trump’s policy measures bite. It is also possible that the downbeat GDP data will eventually be revised up, since the statistics tend to be unreliable in winter, because of seasonal effects.

那么如何解釋這種差異?樂觀的解釋是，這只是時(shí)間滯后效應(yīng)。硬經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào)往往滯后，因?yàn)檫@些信號(hào)捕捉的是已經(jīng)發(fā)生的活動(dòng)，有所延遲;相比之下，軟數(shù)據(jù)是關(guān)于未來(lái)的預(yù)期。因此，如果你想要樂觀——許多投資者似乎決心保持樂觀——你就可以辯稱(或者說(shuō)希望)，隨著特朗普的政策舉措產(chǎn)生效果，情緒的改善最終將引發(fā)更多的有形經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。還有一種可能是，低迷的GDP數(shù)據(jù)最終將被向上修正，因?yàn)橛捎诩竟?jié)影響，冬季的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)往往不可靠。

But there is a second, more pessimistic, theory: namely that it is actually the hard data that tell the more accurate tale. The recent surge in sentiment has been largely sparked by hopes that the Trump presidency will deliver tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure investment.

但第二種更為悲觀的理論是，其實(shí)硬數(shù)據(jù)才表明了更為真實(shí)的實(shí)情。最近情緒飆升在很大程度上是以下希望引發(fā)的，即特朗普政府將會(huì)推行稅收改革、放松監(jiān)管并進(jìn)行基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。

However, as Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury secretary, acknowledged to the FT this week, tax reforms have been delayed — at least “a bit” — by the Congressional spat over healthcare.

然而，正如美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)近日向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》承認(rèn)的那樣，由于國(guó)會(huì)圍繞醫(yī)保問(wèn)題爆發(fā)爭(zhēng)吵，稅收改革已被延遲——至少是推后“一點(diǎn)兒”。

And though Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, is creating plans to roll back many of the estimated 7,000-odd regulations imposed during the Obama years, it is unclear how quickly this will occur. Similarly, nobody knows how fast the White House will implement the ambitious infrastructure plans being drawn up by Gary Cohn, chief economic adviser.

同時(shí)，盡管美國(guó)商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)威爾伯•羅斯(Wilbur Ross)正在制定計(jì)劃，廢止奧巴馬政府時(shí)期出臺(tái)的估計(jì)7000來(lái)項(xiàng)法規(guī)中的很多規(guī)定，但尚不清楚這項(xiàng)工作能夠多快完成。同樣，沒有人知道白宮將多快實(shí)施由其首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)起草的雄心勃勃的基建計(jì)劃。

That means there is a real risk that sentiment will decline in the coming months, closing that puzzling gap between hard and soft data. If so, Mr Trump’s economic “success” will seem like just a temporary sugar high; or so the second explanation goes.

這意味著，存在今后幾個(gè)月情緒回落的切實(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，從而消除硬數(shù)據(jù)和軟數(shù)據(jù)之間令人困惑的差異。若果真如此，特朗普的經(jīng)濟(jì)“成功”看上去將只是暫時(shí)的“糖亢奮”(sugar high，指攝入大量糖后短時(shí)間內(nèi)出現(xiàn)的亢奮狀態(tài)——譯者注);至少按照第二種解釋會(huì)是這樣。

So which of these two theories is correct? Sadly, I suspect — or fear — that the second is more likely to play out. For unless Mr Ross produces a startling set of deregulation manoeuvres in the coming months, or Congress rallies around a tangible tax reform plan, it is hard to see why growth should accelerate to 4 per cent anytime soon. Indeed, the only real reason for optimism about economic activity — outside that sentiment boost — is the upturn in employment and earnings numbers.

那么這兩種理論哪種是正確的?遺憾的是，我懷疑(或者說(shuō)擔(dān)心)第二種解釋可能更為靠譜。原因是，除非羅斯在今后幾個(gè)月拿出一系列令人吃驚的去監(jiān)管舉措，或者國(guó)會(huì)同意一套切實(shí)的稅收改革計(jì)劃，否則很難看出增長(zhǎng)怎么能很快加速至4%。的確，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)感到樂觀(除了情緒提振外)的唯一切實(shí)理由是就業(yè)和收入出現(xiàn)起色。

But the one thing that is crystal clear is that investors do not appear particularly worried about this soft/hard split yet — the stock market remains sky high. Those investors had better just hope that this “mind over matter” pattern can continue for a while and that Mr Trump is able to deliver real policy reform. If not, disappointment looms.

但是有一件事很明顯，投資者似乎并不特別擔(dān)心這種軟數(shù)據(jù)和硬數(shù)據(jù)之間的差異——股市依然高漲。那些投資者最好希望，這種“精神勝過(guò)物質(zhì)”的模式能夠持續(xù)一段時(shí)間，而且特朗普能夠拿出真正的政策改革。若非如此，失望情緒將逐漸占上風(fēng)。