日本不排除先發(fā)制人打擊朝鮮導(dǎo)彈基地

North Korean missiles now pose a “real threat”, Japan’s government said on Thursday as it stepped up its search for countermeasures, including potentially acquiring the capability for a first strike against Pyongyang’s missile bases.

日本政府周四表示，朝鮮導(dǎo)彈現(xiàn)在構(gòu)成“真切威脅”。日本正加大力度尋找反制措施，包括潛在獲得先發(fā)制人打擊朝鮮導(dǎo)彈基地的能力。

Analysis of the four missiles North Korea launched on Monday has convinced Tokyo that a nuclear strike against one of its cities or a US military base is now a realistic possibility and that the country needs to strengthen its defences urgently.

對(duì)朝鮮本周一發(fā)射4枚導(dǎo)彈的分析讓日本政府確信，朝鮮對(duì)日本某個(gè)城市或美軍基地發(fā)起核打擊現(xiàn)在成了一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)可能性，日本迫切需要加強(qiáng)防御能力。

The moves highlight how North Korea is destabilising East Asia. Earlier this week China warned that Pyongyang was on a collision course with the Trump administration and retaliated against South Korean business over Seoul’s installation of US defence systems.

這些事態(tài)突顯朝鮮正如何讓東亞變得不穩(wěn)定。本周早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)警告稱(chēng)，平壤方面走上了與特朗普政府發(fā)生沖突的道路，中國(guó)還因韓國(guó)部署美國(guó)反導(dǎo)系統(tǒng)而對(duì)韓國(guó)企業(yè)展開(kāi)報(bào)復(fù)。

Missile experts at the Middlebury Institute in California have suggested the North Koreans were simulating a nuclear attack on the US Marine Corps air base at Iwakuni. The facility is 50km from Hiroshima, site of the world’s first atomic bombing in the second world war.

加州蒙特雷國(guó)際學(xué)院(Middlebury Institute)的導(dǎo)彈專(zhuān)家們提出，朝方在模擬對(duì)位于巖國(guó)市(Iwakuni)的美國(guó)海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊(duì)航空基地發(fā)起核打擊。該基地距離廣島50公里——廣島在二戰(zhàn)中遭受原子彈轟炸，是世界上首個(gè)遭受核打擊的地方。

Answering questions in parliament, Tomomi Inada, defence minister, refused to rule out acquiring the capacity for a pre-emptive strike. “I do not rule out any method and we will consider various options, consistent of course with international law and the constitution of our country,” she said.

日本防衛(wèi)大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)在國(guó)會(huì)回答問(wèn)題時(shí)，拒絕排除獲得先發(fā)制人打擊能力的可能性。她說(shuō)：“我不排除采取任何手段的可能性，我們將考慮多個(gè)選項(xiàng)，當(dāng)然它們將符合國(guó)際法和我國(guó)憲法。”

Hideaki Kaneda, a retired vice-admiral now at the Okazaki Institute in Tokyo, said pre-emptive strikes against an imminent missile launch were permitted by international law and it was a “reasonable direction” for Japan to take.

目前在岡崎研究所(Okazaki Institute)任職的退役海軍中將金田秀昭(Hideaki Kaneda)表示，對(duì)即將發(fā)射的導(dǎo)彈進(jìn)行先發(fā)制人的打擊是國(guó)際法允許的，這是日本可以選擇的“合理方向”。

Some politicians in Japan’s ruling LDP party have been pushing to acquire weapons capable of making a first strike for years. “But it’s notable that there hasn’t been such a strong public backlash against the idea this time,” Mr Kaneda said.

日本執(zhí)政黨自民黨(LDP)的一些政治人士多年來(lái)一直推動(dòng)日本獲得發(fā)動(dòng)先發(fā)制人打擊所需的武器。金田秀昭表示：“但值得注意的是，這次公眾沒(méi)有對(duì)這個(gè)構(gòu)想作出特別強(qiáng)烈的反彈。”

If Japan chooses to acquire such weapons, it has several options: Tokyo could buy Tomahawk cruise missiles, a missile-equipped drone or ground-to-air munitions for its manned F-35 aircraft.

如果日本選擇獲得此類(lèi)武器，它有多個(gè)選項(xiàng)：日本政府可以購(gòu)買(mǎi)“戰(zhàn)斧”巡航導(dǎo)彈、配備導(dǎo)彈的無(wú)人機(jī)，或者為其有人駕駛的F-35戰(zhàn)機(jī)配備對(duì)地打擊武器。

Japan is also actively upgrading its existing anti-ballistic missile defences and considering whether to acquire the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system that has caused the controversy between Beijing and Seoul.

日本還正在積極升級(jí)現(xiàn)有的反彈道導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)，并考慮是否部署“美國(guó)末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)”(THAAD,中文簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)：薩德)。正是薩德系統(tǒng)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)與韓國(guó)發(fā)生了爭(zhēng)執(zhí)。

At present, Japan relies on Aegis destroyers at sea to intercept ballistic missiles mid-flight, and Patriot missiles on land to intercept them in the final moments of an attack. It is in the process of upgrading both.

就目前而言，日本依賴(lài)宙斯盾驅(qū)逐艦上的?；磳?dǎo)系統(tǒng)來(lái)攔截飛行中的彈道導(dǎo)彈，依賴(lài)陸上的“愛(ài)國(guó)者”導(dǎo)彈攔截已進(jìn)入攻擊末段的彈道導(dǎo)彈。日本正在升級(jí)這兩套武器系統(tǒng)。

“What we have to consider is a saturated attack,” said Mr Kaneda. North Korea could attempt to overwhelm Japan’s defences by launching numerous missiles at the same target. “If they fall in a concentrated area then it’s harder to defend against,” he said.

金田秀昭表示：“我們不得不考慮飽和攻擊的可能性。”朝鮮可能試圖通過(guò)針對(duì)同一目標(biāo)發(fā)射大量導(dǎo)彈來(lái)壓倒日本的防御。他說(shuō)：“如果它們落入人口密集區(qū)，那就更難防御。”

Thaad would add a third layer to Japan’s defences, allowing it to intercept incoming missiles at greater range than the Patriot system. However, as with South Korea, the potential for the system’s radars to gather information on their defences could upset China and Russia.

薩德將為日本的防御體系提供第三層防護(hù)，讓它在比“愛(ài)國(guó)者”系統(tǒng)更遠(yuǎn)的距離范圍攔截導(dǎo)彈。然而，和韓國(guó)一樣，薩德系統(tǒng)的雷達(dá)有可能收集到中國(guó)和俄羅斯的國(guó)防情報(bào)，引發(fā)這兩個(gè)國(guó)家不快。

Japan also perceives a threat from Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles, which could be used to attack its ships and airbases in the event of a conflict around the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands.

日本還認(rèn)為中國(guó)的中程彈道導(dǎo)彈構(gòu)成威脅。一旦中日圍繞有爭(zhēng)議的尖閣諸島(Senkaku)——中國(guó)稱(chēng)為釣魚(yú)島及其附屬島嶼——發(fā)生沖突，中國(guó)的中程彈道導(dǎo)彈可能被用于攻擊日方的軍艦和空軍基地。

Recent satellite imagery suggests China has carried out drills for such attacks, adding impetus to Japan’s quest for better anti-ballistic missile defences.

最近的衛(wèi)星影像顯示，中國(guó)進(jìn)行了此類(lèi)攻擊的演練，這進(jìn)一步刺激日本物色更好的反彈道導(dǎo)彈防御系統(tǒng)。