當(dāng)特朗普引發(fā)憲法危機(jī)時(shí)

You have to sympathise with America’s 44th president. As post-presidencies go, Barack Obama’s would have been among the best — still young, massively in demand and happily married to someone with no plans to run for high office. Instead, he has been thrust back into a very unwelcome spotlight by Donald Trump. He is unlikely to leave it.

你必須對(duì)第44任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)表示同情。與以往的美國(guó)總統(tǒng)卸任時(shí)相比，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)本應(yīng)算極為幸運(yùn)的——仍然年輕、不愁去處、婚姻幸福、且妻子無(wú)意競(jìng)選要職。然而，他卻被唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)以極為討厭的方式重新推到聚光燈下。他不太可能輕易走出聚光燈。

Mr Obama may even be dragged into a constitutional crisis over Mr Trump’s claim that he personally ordered the wiretapping of the Trump campaign. To paraphrase the aphorism about war, Mr Obama may not be interested in Mr Trump. But Mr Trump is interested in him. You might say that he is obsessed.

由于特朗普聲稱(chēng)奧巴馬親自下令竊聽(tīng)特朗普的競(jìng)選活動(dòng)，奧巴馬甚至可能被拖入一場(chǎng)憲法危機(jī)。仿照有關(guān)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的名言來(lái)說(shuō)，奧巴馬或許對(duì)特朗普不感興趣。但特朗普對(duì)奧巴馬感興趣。你或許可以說(shuō)他有點(diǎn)著魔了。

Mr Trump’s Obamaphobia stretches back years. In 2011, Mr Obama was forced to produce his long-form birth certificate to disprove Mr Trump’s claim that he was born in Kenya.

特朗普的“奧巴馬厭惡癥”(Obamaphobia)可以追溯到多年前。2011年，奧巴馬被迫出示詳細(xì)的出生證明，來(lái)反駁特朗普聲稱(chēng)他生于肯尼亞的說(shuō)法。

At the time, most of us laughed off the property mogul’s claim as the publicity stunt of a crank. We laughed even louder when Mr Obama mocked Mr Trump at the White House correspondents’ dinner a few weeks later. The reality TV star, Mr Obama said, could finally get back to the things that matter, such as “did we fake the moon landing?” and “what really happened at Roswell [the site of an alleged UFO crash]?”

當(dāng)時(shí)，我們大多數(shù)人把這位房地產(chǎn)大亨的說(shuō)法當(dāng)做奇葩作秀一笑了之。數(shù)周后當(dāng)奧巴馬在白宮的記者晚宴上嘲諷特朗普時(shí)，我們笑得更大聲了。奧巴馬當(dāng)時(shí)說(shuō)，那位真人秀明星終于可以把注意力放回到有意義的事上了，比如“我們是不是偽造了登月”以及“羅斯威爾(Roswell，所謂UFO墜毀的地點(diǎn))到底發(fā)生了什么”?

Mr Obama’s humour was based on the quaint assumption that there was a clear boundary between grown-up politics and madcap conspiracy theories. The fact that he was at that moment weighing Osama bin Laden’s kill order retrospectively put a seal on the wit. By a horrendous twist of fate, the epistemological shoe is now on the other foot. The White House is now the source of “Elvis Presley faked his death”-type stories. In the past week, rightwing websites have published stories that the Federal Bureau of Investigation is about to arrest Mr Obama for illegal wiretapping, that a Floridian drug dealer whom Mr Obama pardoned had murdered his girlfriend, and that Mr Obama is plotting a coup to overthrow Mr Trump.

奧巴馬當(dāng)時(shí)的幽默建立在這個(gè)傳統(tǒng)假設(shè)上：成熟的政治和瘋狂的陰謀論之間存在明顯的界限。當(dāng)時(shí)他正在考慮殺死奧薩馬•本•拉登(Osama bin Laden)的命令，過(guò)后看來(lái)，這足以證明這一假設(shè)的正確?？膳碌氖?，世易時(shí)移，認(rèn)知這只鞋如今穿在了另一個(gè)人的腳上。眼下白宮成了“貓王埃爾維斯•普雷斯利(Elvis Presley)偽造了自己的死”之類(lèi)新聞的來(lái)源。過(guò)去一周，右翼網(wǎng)站發(fā)布了這些新聞：聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)即將以非法竊聽(tīng)為由逮捕奧巴馬，獲奧巴馬赦免的一名佛羅里達(dá)毒販謀殺了自己的女友，奧巴馬正密謀發(fā)動(dòng)政變推翻特朗普。

On Tuesday Mr Trump tweeted that 122 Guantánamo Bay prisoners who had been released by Mr Obama were back on the battlefield. It was wildly inaccurate. Of the 714 former Guantánamo prisoners who have been transferred, 121 are fighting again — all but eight of whom were released by George W Bush. None of this can be laughed off. Millions of Americans believe such stories. More will come.

周二，特朗普在Twitter上表示，奧巴馬釋放的122名關(guān)塔那摩灣(Guantánamo Bay)囚犯返回了戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)。這一說(shuō)法極不準(zhǔn)確。在714名被移交的前關(guān)塔那摩灣囚犯中，121人再次參與了作戰(zhàn)——但除8人外其他人全部是小布什(George W. Bush)釋放的。我們無(wú)法對(duì)這些事情一笑置之。數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人相信了這些新聞。未來(lái)還會(huì)有更多這樣的事情。

The question is where it will lead. Mr Obama has remained silent. It would be better if he kept his powder dry. At some point, Mr Trump will provoke a genuine constitutional emergency. It could be in response to an actual terrorist attack or to a fake one. Or it could come about as a result of Mr Trump’s escalating battle with the “deep state” of intelligence agencies and bureaucrats whom he alleges are working with Mr Obama to destroy his presidency.

問(wèn)題是形勢(shì)將如何發(fā)展。奧巴馬一直保持沉默。他最好隨時(shí)準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)戰(zhàn)。或遲或早，特朗普會(huì)引發(fā)一場(chǎng)真正的憲法危機(jī)。危機(jī)可能會(huì)在面臨一次真正或偽造的恐怖襲擊時(shí)爆發(fā)。導(dǎo)致危機(jī)爆發(fā)的還可能是特朗普與“暗深勢(shì)力”(deep state)——他聲稱(chēng)正在與奧巴馬合作以摧毀他的總統(tǒng)任期的情報(bào)機(jī)構(gòu)和官員——不斷升級(jí)的斗爭(zhēng)。

Whatever the trigger, it will come. At that point, Mr Obama should combine with all living former presidents, including George Bushes junior and senior, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, to defend America’s constitutional liberties. It will be all the more powerful if each has kept his counsel until that point.

無(wú)論導(dǎo)火索是什么，危機(jī)肯定會(huì)爆發(fā)。到那時(shí)，奧巴馬應(yīng)該和所有在世的前總統(tǒng)(包括老布什、小布什、比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)以及吉米•卡特(Jimmy Carter))聯(lián)手，捍衛(wèi)美國(guó)的憲法自由。如果他們中每個(gè)人都把自己的忠告保留到那一刻才說(shuō)，那么釋放出來(lái)的威力會(huì)更強(qiáng)大。

Against that, however, is the growing demand from the left that Mr Obama spearhead opposition to Mr Trump. This is assisted by the fact that the Democratic party has no obvious leader — or generation of new leaders waiting in the wings. Some of the party’s sorry condition is clearly on Mr Obama’s conscience. He left office with the Democratic party in its worst state since the 1920s. In addition to losing control of both chambers of Congress, the Democrats today have 16 governorships, compared with 28 when Mr Obama was elected and six states where it controls both chambers plus the governorship versus 17 when he came to office.

然而，與之相對(duì)的是左翼要求奧巴馬帶頭反對(duì)特朗普的呼聲日益高漲。推動(dòng)這種呼聲的一個(gè)因素是：眼下民主黨沒(méi)有一位明顯的領(lǐng)袖，也沒(méi)有一代新的領(lǐng)袖作后備。民主黨的一些糟糕境況明顯令?yuàn)W巴馬心懷愧疚。他卸任后的民主黨處于自1920年代以來(lái)最糟糕的狀態(tài)。除了失去對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)兩院的控制權(quán)外，如今只有16個(gè)州長(zhǎng)是民主黨人，相比之下奧巴馬當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)時(shí)有28個(gè)州長(zhǎng)是民主黨人;只有6個(gè)州民主黨控制著兩院且州長(zhǎng)為民主黨人，而在他上任時(shí)這樣的州有17個(gè)。

If that picture holds in 2020, Republicans will be able to gerrymander districts in their favour for another decade. It could enshrine Trumpism as the dominant force in US politics. It is a spectre that clearly haunts Mr Obama, who told voters that his legacy was on the ballot in November. It is still on the ballot.

如果這一情況持續(xù)到2020年，共和黨將可以擁有又一個(gè)十年時(shí)間將選區(qū)重新劃分得有利于該黨。這可能會(huì)使特朗普主義成為美國(guó)政壇的主導(dǎo)力量。這是明顯縈繞在奧巴馬心頭的恐懼，他曾在去年11月告訴選民，他的政治遺產(chǎn)取決于他們的投票。目前依然如此。

Even if Mr Obama resists such demands, Mr Trump will keep pulling him back into the arena. In the weeks before Mr Trump took office, Mr Obama bent over backwards to welcome his successor. In a fleeting moment of gratitude, Mr Trump said: “I don’t know if he’ll admit it, but he [Obama] likes me.” Mr Trump would have been closer to the truth if he had declared what is really gnawing at him. Mr Obama won twice with a clear majority, whereas Mr Trump lost the popular vote. He can never forgive him for that.

即使奧巴馬回絕了這些要求，特朗普也將繼續(xù)把他拖回到競(jìng)技場(chǎng)上。在特朗普上任前數(shù)周，奧巴馬竭盡所能地歡迎這位繼任者。在一個(gè)心懷感激的瞬間，特朗普曾說(shuō)：“我不知道他是否會(huì)承認(rèn)，但他(奧巴馬)喜歡我。”如果特朗普說(shuō)出實(shí)際上折磨著他的事，他就離真相更近了。奧巴馬曾兩度以明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)勝選，而特朗普輸?shù)袅似者x。因?yàn)檫@一點(diǎn)，他永遠(yuǎn)也沒(méi)法原諒?qiáng)W巴馬。