中國(guó)買房團(tuán)撤離澳洲轉(zhuǎn)戰(zhàn)英國(guó)

Zhang Biao, a 32-year-old Chinese entrepreneur, has already thought about where his eight-year old will go to university. “We thought a flat overseas would be a good investment, and our son could use it for sixth form or university in Australia or the UK,” he says.

32歲的中國(guó)企業(yè)家張標(biāo)(音譯)已經(jīng)考慮了自己8歲大的兒子要去哪兒念大學(xué)。他說(shuō)：“我們認(rèn)為在國(guó)外買套公寓將是一個(gè)很好的投資，而且等我們兒子在澳大利亞或英國(guó)念預(yù)科(sixth form)或大學(xué)時(shí)也能用得上。”

Mr Zhang and his wife put an offer down on a A$600,000 (US$460,000) flat in Melbourne in October, only to be told that they were no longer eligible for the 60 per cent loan-to-value mortgage they had applied for. Instead they decided to pay up front for a £120,000 flat in the English city of Liverpool.

去年10月，張標(biāo)夫婦對(duì)墨爾本一套價(jià)值60萬(wàn)澳元(合46萬(wàn)美元)的公寓給出報(bào)價(jià)，但被告知他們不再有資格獲得此前申請(qǐng)的按揭成數(shù)為60%的貸款。于是他們決定提前支付了英國(guó)利物浦的一套12萬(wàn)英鎊的公寓。

Mr Zhang is one of a growing number of Chinese property investors switching their focus from Australia to other markets as regulators — eager to moderate rapidly rising prices amid fears of a bubble — have increased pressure on banks to curb foreign lending.

越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)投資者將目光從澳大利亞轉(zhuǎn)向其他市場(chǎng)，張標(biāo)就是其中一員。在人們擔(dān)憂澳大利亞出現(xiàn)樓市泡沫之際，急于緩和快速上漲的房?jī)r(jià)的澳大利亞監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)加大了對(duì)銀行的施壓，要求銀行抑制對(duì)外國(guó)人放貸。

This month, the Reserve Bank of Australia warned that residential building activity had been 50 per cent higher than long-term averages for two years and there was a risk that “newly completed apartments fail to settle”.

本月，澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)警告說(shuō)，住宅建筑活動(dòng)已持續(xù)兩年比長(zhǎng)期平均水平高出50%，且存在“新建住宅無(wú)人入住”的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

A sharp correction in the property market could tip Australia into its first recession in a quarter of century, analysts warn. Gross domestic product contracted in the third quarter by 0.6 per cent, although most economists expect economic growth should resume in the fourth quarter.

分析師們警告稱，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的大幅調(diào)整可能會(huì)使澳大利亞陷入25年來(lái)首次衰退。澳大利亞去年第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)出現(xiàn)0.6%的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，不過(guò)大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)去年第四季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)應(yīng)該會(huì)恢復(fù)為正值。

“We believe the [property market] correction will start with settlement problems for low quality apartments,” said broker CLSA in a recent report. “Our worst-case scenario would result in dwelling prices falling in all areas, eventually leading to a recession.”

香港券商里昂證券(CLSA)在近期一份報(bào)告中表示：“我們認(rèn)為澳洲房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)整將從低檔公寓入住問(wèn)題開(kāi)始。最糟情況下，這將導(dǎo)致所有地區(qū)住宅價(jià)格下跌，最終導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。”

The boom in foreign property investment has helped the Australian economy to continue growing despite sharp falls in mining investment. In 2014-15 Chinese investors were granted approval to spend A$24.3bn on property, more than three times the value of purchases from the US, the second largest group of foreign investors.

外國(guó)人對(duì)澳大利亞房地產(chǎn)投資的激增，一直幫助這個(gè)國(guó)家在礦業(yè)投資急劇下降的情況下經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。2014-15年度，中國(guó)投資者獲得批準(zhǔn)的對(duì)澳房地產(chǎn)支出額達(dá)到243億澳元，是第二大外國(guó)投資者美國(guó)購(gòu)買額的三倍以上。

The inflow of foreign capital helped push prices up in Sydney and Melbourne, the two biggest cities, by 67 per cent and 47 per cent respectively, over the past four and a half years. Foreign buyers account for one in five apartment sales.

過(guò)去四年半時(shí)間里，外國(guó)資本的流入推動(dòng)澳大利亞兩個(gè)最大城市悉尼和墨爾本的房?jī)r(jià)分別上漲了67%和47%。外國(guó)買家占了住宅銷售的五分之一。

Now overseas demand is starting to weaken. Over the past two years the proportion of new property sales accounted for by foreign buyers in Australia has fallen from 16.8 per cent to 10.9 per cent.

現(xiàn)在海外需求開(kāi)始減弱。過(guò)去兩年中，外國(guó)買家在澳大利亞新房銷售中所占比例已從16.8%下降到10.9%。

This drop is particularly felt in the apartment market. Building approvals for apartments fell by a fifth in the year to end-December. Unit prices have begun to moderate in Melbourne and Brisbane, edging up by only 1.7 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively last year.

這一下降在公寓市場(chǎng)尤其明顯。截至去年12月底的一年里，公寓的興建批準(zhǔn)數(shù)量下降了五分之一。墨爾本和布里斯班的單價(jià)開(kāi)始平緩，去年分別僅增長(zhǎng)了1.7%和2.3%。

“Chinese buyers are increasingly nervous about Australia because of recent instability in regulation, tax and bank lending rules,” says Esther Yong, co-founder of ACproperty, a Chinese language property portal. “A lot of Chinese who bought apartments off-plan three years ago are now finding it difficult to find finance as Australian banks have blocked lending to foreign buyers.”

中文房地產(chǎn)門(mén)戶網(wǎng)站“澳洲家園網(wǎng)”(ACproperty)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人Esther Yong表示：“由于近期監(jiān)管、稅收和銀行貸款規(guī)則方面的不穩(wěn)定，中國(guó)買家對(duì)投資澳大利亞越來(lái)越緊張。隨著澳大利亞銀行阻止對(duì)外國(guó)買家放貸，許多在三年前買了期房的中國(guó)人發(fā)現(xiàn)他們現(xiàn)在很難找到貸款。”

The big four Australian banks — NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ and Westpac — have all stopped issuing loans to non-resident borrowers with no domestic income. “We have essentially shut down mortgages to non-resident buyers,” Shayne Elliott, ANZ’s chief executive, told the Financial Times.

澳大利亞四大銀行——澳大利亞國(guó)民銀行(NAB)、澳大利亞聯(lián)邦銀行(CBA)、澳新銀行(ANZ)和西太平洋銀行(Westpac)，均已停止向沒(méi)有澳大利亞國(guó)內(nèi)收入的非居民借款者發(fā)放貸款。澳新銀行首席執(zhí)行官謝恩•埃利奧特(Shayne Elliott)向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示：“我們基本已停止向非居民買家發(fā)放抵押貸款。”

He said the apartment market in Melbourne was “a little bit concerning” due to the proliferation in the city centre of small apartments, some under 50 square metres in size and with no bedroom windows.

他說(shuō)墨爾本的公寓市場(chǎng)“有點(diǎn)令人擔(dān)心”，因?yàn)槟珷柋臼兄行男」⒓ぴ?，其中部分公寓面積不足50平方米，臥室沒(méi)有窗戶。

The withdrawal of bank financing has forced some property developers to ramp up vendor financing, which can leave buyers exposed if prices then fall.

銀行停止放貸迫使一些房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商加大賣方融資，如果房?jī)r(jià)之后下跌，這可能讓買家面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder, offers buyers two-year loans, providing them with some breathing space to find alternative financing.

澳大利亞最大公寓建筑商Meriton為購(gòu)房者提供兩年期貸款，為買家們尋找別的融資提供了一些喘息空間。

“Our loan book has doubled over the last 12 months to about A$120m as the rule changes have left some foreign buyers in limbo,” said James Sialepis, sales director at Meriton, Australia’s biggest apartment builder. Other developers have begun offering discounts and rental guarantees on some properties.

Meriton銷售總監(jiān)詹姆斯•西亞萊皮什(James Sialepis)說(shuō)：“我們的放貸規(guī)模在過(guò)去12個(gè)月翻了一番，達(dá)到1.2億澳元左右——由于規(guī)則改變，一些外國(guó)買家陷入困境。”其他開(kāi)發(fā)商已開(kāi)始對(duì)部分房產(chǎn)提供折扣或租賃擔(dān)保。

Increasingly, Chinese buyers are looking elsewhere. ACproperty recently teamed up with property listing company Listglobally, to launch a Mandarin language housing site called Sodichan.com focused on other international markets.

越來(lái)越多的中國(guó)買家開(kāi)始將目光轉(zhuǎn)向其他市場(chǎng)。澳洲家園網(wǎng)最近與提供房地產(chǎn)掛牌出售服務(wù)的Listglobally合作，推出專注于其他海外市場(chǎng)的中文房產(chǎn)網(wǎng)站“搜地產(chǎn)”(Sodichan.com)。

“Our agents in China have been asking us to supply them with properties in other countries,” said Ms Yong. She said the UK had become popular after the Brexit vote because the fall in the value of sterling had made it cheaper for Chinese buyers.

Esther Yong說(shuō)：“我們?cè)谥袊?guó)的代理人一直要求我們向他們提供其他國(guó)家的房地產(chǎn)。”她說(shuō)英國(guó)在脫歐公投后開(kāi)始變火，因?yàn)橛㈡^貶值降低了中國(guó)買家的購(gòu)房成本。

But Beijing’s tough new capital controls are making it more difficult to move large amounts of cash out of China. Foreign property investments by Chinese companies plunged by 84 per cent last month, according to the Chinese Ministry for Commerce.

但北京方面新的嚴(yán)格資本管制，加大了大量現(xiàn)金流出中國(guó)的難度。根據(jù)中國(guó)商務(wù)部數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)企業(yè)海外房地產(chǎn)投資在上個(gè)月同比暴跌84%。

“For some Chinese buyers who have family connections in Australia, they will continue to buy there. But for others without these specific reasons, they will look at other opportunities,” said Ms Yong.

Esther Yong說(shuō)：“有些中國(guó)買家在澳大利亞有親戚，他們會(huì)繼續(xù)在那兒買房。但對(duì)于沒(méi)有這些特殊理由的其他人來(lái)說(shuō)，他們會(huì)物色其他機(jī)會(huì)。”