美俄達(dá)成“重大協(xié)議”前景變得遙遠(yuǎn)

What looked like a coup for Russia in interfering in the US election is backfiring. Moscow’s electoral hacking may have helped its favoured candidate reach the White House — even if Donald Trump is not quite the “Siberian candidate” it expected. But Michael Flynn’s resignation as national security adviser after his ill-advised and potentially illegal dealings with Russia’s US ambassador to the US, make any reset or “grand bargain” with President Vladimir Putin less likely.

俄羅斯干預(yù)美國大選看起來干得漂亮，如今卻在產(chǎn)生反效果。莫斯科方面實(shí)施的黑客攻擊可能幫助其青睞的候選人成功入主了白宮——即使唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不太像其所期待的“來自西伯利亞的候選人”。但白宮國家安全顧問邁克爾•弗林(Michael Flynn)因與俄羅斯駐美大使進(jìn)行不明智且可能違法的談話而辭職，已經(jīng)降低了美俄關(guān)系“重置”、特朗普與俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)達(dá)成“重大協(xié)議”的可能性。

That is not just because Mr Flynn had been a leading proponent of such a deal, and may well now be replaced by someone with very different views. For Mr Trump, pursuing a rapprochement with Russia or making any concession on sanctions would be an even riskier gamble.

這不光是因?yàn)楦チ质谴祟悈f(xié)議的主要支持者，接替他的人可能觀點(diǎn)迥異。而且，對特朗普而言，如今尋求與俄羅斯緩和關(guān)系或者在制裁俄羅斯方面做出任何讓步都將是一場更冒險(xiǎn)的賭博。

It is long past time for Republican leaders to launch a full congressional investigation into Mr Trump’s Russian ties. Such an investigation could be highly damaging. Recent leaks suggesting co-ordination between Mr Trump’s campaign team and Russian intelligence officials should not be brushed aside. US national interests are at stake.

共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層早該針對特朗普與俄羅斯的聯(lián)系發(fā)起全面的國會(huì)調(diào)查。這樣的調(diào)查可能會(huì)帶來極大的破壞。最近的爆料表明，特朗普選舉團(tuán)隊(duì)與俄羅斯情報(bào)官員之間的協(xié)調(diào)不應(yīng)被忽視，這關(guān)系到美國的國家利益。

This week’s extraordinary developments already appear to have prompted a change of tone on Russia, even though foreign policy flip-flops have become a feature of the Trump White House.

本周離奇的事態(tài)發(fā)展似已促使特朗普政府改變了在俄羅斯事務(wù)上的論調(diào)，雖說在外交政策上出爾反爾已經(jīng)成為特朗普政府的一個(gè)特征。

Comments by the president and his spokesman since Tuesday that Russia “took” Crimea and should return it to Ukraine are a striking volte-face from Mr Trump’s campaign hints that he might recognise Russia’s claim to the Black Sea peninsula.

特朗普總統(tǒng)和他的發(fā)言人自周二以來表達(dá)了這樣的意思：俄羅斯應(yīng)該向?yàn)蹩颂m歸還其“拿走”的克里米亞。這是一個(gè)引人注目的反轉(zhuǎn)，因?yàn)樵诟傔x中他暗示過可能會(huì)承認(rèn)俄羅斯對這個(gè)黑海半島的主權(quán)主張。

In response, the mood in Moscow seems to be shifting from initial jubilation over Mr Trump’s election victory and its implications for ties with the US, to consternation. Russia’s foreign ministry responded testily to the White House’s Crimea comments that “we don’t give back our own territory”.

面對這種轉(zhuǎn)變，莫斯科的情緒似乎正從對特朗普勝選及其將給美俄關(guān)系帶來的影響感到歡欣鼓舞轉(zhuǎn)為震驚。對白宮關(guān)于克里米亞的言論，俄羅斯外長做出惱怒的回應(yīng)，表示“我們不會(huì)交還我們本國的領(lǐng)土”。

It is to be welcomed that US institutions are reinforcing the checks and balances on the Trump administration — even if leaking by security services of conversations of senior US officials is a somewhat dubious device. There are also important lessons here for Russia at a time when it might be attempting to meddle in forthcoming French and German elections, as it did in the US campaign.

美國各機(jī)構(gòu)正在加強(qiáng)對特朗普政府的制衡，這一點(diǎn)是可喜的——雖說安全部門泄露本國高級官員的談話內(nèi)容這種手段不太光彩。俄羅斯也可以從這件事中吸取重要教訓(xùn)，它或許正試圖像干預(yù)美國大選那樣，插手即將到來的法國和德國大選。

Moscow should be careful what it wishes for. It may seem attractive to have its favoured candidates in positions of power. Backing extremist and Eurosceptic candidates may also support the Kremlin’s broad foreign policy aims of weakening the EU and fracturing European unity on sanctions against Russia.

對于自己想要的是什么，莫斯科應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎。讓青睞的候選人坐上權(quán)力寶座似乎很有吸引力。支持立場極端、持歐洲懷疑論的候選人或許也符合克里姆林宮的外交政策目標(biāo)：削弱歐盟(EU)和破壞歐洲在制裁俄羅斯問題上的一致立場。

Yet a candidate might not behave as Russia hopes once he or she reaches office. Indeed, popular perceptions that a political leader has been helped into power by Moscow — especially a nationalist supposedly committed to strengthening their state’s political sovereignty — can be counterproductive. They could encourage new leaders to keep their distance from the Kremlin. Russian interference in foreign elections can create chaos but not necessarily influence.

然而，這個(gè)候選人上臺(tái)后或許不會(huì)如俄羅斯期望的那樣行動(dòng)。事實(shí)上，如果民眾認(rèn)為一個(gè)政治領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是被莫斯科扶植上位的——特別是如果此人是個(gè)民族主義者，理應(yīng)致力于加強(qiáng)本國的政治主權(quán)——那么莫斯科的做法可能適得其反。民眾的看法可能促使新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人與克里姆林宮保持距離。俄羅斯干涉外國大選或許會(huì)制造混亂，但不一定會(huì)從中獲得影響力。

Mr Putin is unlikely to give up the adventurism, however. With a grand bargain with the US looking a more distant prospect, the opportunistic Russian leader may still opt to up the ante militarily in Ukraine or elsewhere. However, if he really wants to see sanctions against Russia lifted, and strengthen Moscow’s recovery from recession, he would do far better to address the real reasons for those sanctions. That means complying with the Minsk peace accord and restoring the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

不過普京不太可能放棄冒險(xiǎn)主義。隨著與美國達(dá)成“重大協(xié)議”的前景看起來變得更加遙遠(yuǎn)，機(jī)會(huì)主義的俄羅斯領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能依然選擇在烏克蘭或者其他地方加大軍事賭注。然而，如果普京真的希望俄羅斯能被解除制裁，并且更有力地從經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中復(fù)蘇，那么，著手解決招致制裁的真正原因，效果會(huì)好得多。那意味著要遵守明斯克和平協(xié)定，還烏克蘭領(lǐng)土完整。