耶倫：特朗普帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性
珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)周二警告稱，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)和財(cái)政政策在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下面對(duì)著一條不確定的路徑，她宣告“貨幣政策沒有運(yùn)行在預(yù)設(shè)軌道上”，而加息太慢將是“不明智的”。
Testifying before Congress, the Federal Reserve chair painted a picture of an economy with accelerating growth, higher inflation and a robust labour market that has generated some 16m jobs since its post-crisis trough in early 2010.
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)主席在國會(huì)作證時(shí)描述了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的景象：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長加速，通脹上揚(yáng)，勞動(dòng)力市場強(qiáng)勁，自2010年初金融危機(jī)過后的低谷以來已經(jīng)創(chuàng)造了1600萬就業(yè)崗位。
That improving picture, she said, justified the December move by the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates for only the second time in the past decade and expectations that it would have to continue to increase its target rate gradually in the months to come.
耶倫說，這一不斷好轉(zhuǎn)的局面證明聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)(FOMC)去年12月份的加息舉措——過去十年的第二次加息——是正確的，而且預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個(gè)月需要繼續(xù)逐步提高目標(biāo)利率。
“As I noted on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise,” she said.
耶倫說：“正如我在以前的場合所指出的，遲遲不撤銷寬松政策將是不明智的。”
Responding to questions later she declined to say whether the next rate increase would come at the Fed’s policy meetings in March or June. “I can’t tell you which meeting it would be. I can tell you that each meeting is live,” she said, adding: “It’s our expectation that rate increases this year will be appropriate.”
在后來回答時(shí)，她拒絕說明下一次加息會(huì)發(fā)生在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)3月還是6月的政策會(huì)議上。她說：“我不能告訴你是哪次會(huì)議。我可以告訴你的是每一次會(huì)議都有可能。我們預(yù)期今年的加息將是適當(dāng)?shù)摹?rdquo;
The US dollar rose as traders focused on Ms Yellen’s remarks about a continued tightening of monetary policy. The greenback added 0.4 per cent against a basket of six major global currencies, reversing a loss of as much as 0.3 per cent earlier in the day.
耶倫關(guān)于持續(xù)收緊貨幣政策的言論引起交易員關(guān)注，美元隨之走高。美元對(duì)一籃子六種主要貨幣上漲0.4%，扭轉(zhuǎn)了當(dāng)日早些時(shí)候一度高達(dá)0.3%的跌幅。
But Ms Yellen also struck a note of caution about the new administration and expectations that its plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending would lead to looser fiscal policy and more rapid growth.
但是耶倫也對(duì)新政府以及減稅和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出計(jì)劃會(huì)導(dǎo)致更寬松財(cái)政政策和更快速增長的預(yù)期表示警惕。
“Considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook,” she said, pointing to “possible changes in US fiscal and other policies” as one of the main sources of that.
“經(jīng)濟(jì)前景將面臨顯著的不確定性，”她說，并指向“美國的財(cái)政及其他政策可能出現(xiàn)的變化”為不確定性的主要來源之一。
Fed policymakers reiterated this month that they expected “the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate”, Ms Yellen pointed out.
耶倫指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)政策制定者本月重申，他們預(yù)計(jì)“美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)展使得繼續(xù)逐步提升聯(lián)邦基金利率變得必要”。
Future moves, she said, would depend on continuing progress in US employment and inflation, which at 1.6 per cent remains below the Fed’s 2 per cent target rate. But uncertainty over the shape and economic impact of Mr Trump and the Republican Congress’ fiscal plans was shadowing the Fed’s decisions, she indicated.
她說，未來的舉措將取決于美國在就業(yè)和通脹方面的持續(xù)進(jìn)展，目前1.6%的通脹水平仍低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。但她表示，圍繞特朗普以及共和黨主導(dǎo)的國會(huì)的財(cái)政計(jì)劃的輪廓及經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的不確定性，正在影響美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的決定。
“The economic outlook is uncertain, and monetary policy is not on a preset course,” she told the Senate banking committee.
“經(jīng)濟(jì)前景并不確定，而貨幣政策沒有運(yùn)行在預(yù)設(shè)軌道上，”她對(duì)參議院銀行委員會(huì)表示。
"We recognise that there may be significant economic policy changes and that those changes could affect the outlook," Ms Yellen said later in response to questions. But “we don’t want to base current policy on speculation about what may come down the line".
“我們意識(shí)到，可能會(huì)出臺(tái)重大經(jīng)濟(jì)政策變化，而那些變化可能影響經(jīng)濟(jì)前景，”耶倫后來在回答問題時(shí)說。但是“我們不想把當(dāng)前政策建立在對(duì)未來的猜測之上”。
