中國美債頭寸降至2010年來最低水平

China cut its holdings of US Treasuries by $66bn in November, reducing its position in the safe-haven debt to the lowest level since 2010 as the country battles to stabilise its currency.

2016年11月，中國將持有的美國國債削減了660億美元，從而在竭力穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率的同時，將這種避險債券的頭寸降至2010年以來的最低水平。

The acceleration in sales — the largest monthly decline since December 2011 — threatens a rise in US interest rates if it continues and follows an unwinding in October that saw China cede its position as the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries to Japan.

這是2011年12月份以來最大的月度降幅。拋售的加速一旦持續(xù)下去，可能會導致美國加息。而此前在10月份的一輪平倉，令中國將美國國債最大境外持有者的地位讓給了日本。

China has been selling its foreign exchange holdings in part to support the renminbi, which has fallen 4 per cent against the US dollar since the start of last year. The fall in Treasury holdings is part of a wider campaign by Beijing to stem capital outflows.

中國一直在拋售其外匯頭寸，這部分是為了支撐人民幣匯率。自去年初以來，人民幣兌美元匯率已下跌4%。降低所持有的美國國債頭寸，是中國政府遏制資金外流的更大運動的一部分。

The selling is likely to have amplified the volatility in Treasuries after the US election, when yields on the benchmark 10-year notes climbed as high as 2.64 per cent, the highest level since 2014. Investors fear continued selling, coupled with a more hawkish Federal Reserve, could shock yields even higher.

這輪拋售可能放大了大選后美國國債的波動性。當時，基準的美國十年期國債的收益率攀升至高達2.64%的水平，是自2014年以來的最高水平。投資者擔心，持續(xù)的拋售再加上美聯(lián)儲(Fed)更趨鷹派，可能會進一步推高美國國債收益率。

“It’s a big deal,” said John Herrmann, a rates strategist at MUFG. “It is an alarmingly large drawdown and will have to be monitored closely. The question going forward is if we get another bout of selling then the current level of 10-year yields is not appropriate and will have to go higher.”

三菱日聯(lián)金融集團(MUFG)利率策略師約翰•赫爾曼(John Herrmann)表示：“這事情影響很大。這是一輪令人警惕的大規(guī)模資金調(diào)動，它必將受到密切關(guān)注。眼下的問題是，如果再出現(xiàn)一輪拋售，十年期國債當前收益率水平將不再適當，從而會再次升高。”

Mr Herrmann said that further declines, taking China’s holdings below $1tn, would be cause for concern as markets would struggle to digest the selling activity, pushing rates higher. The country’s overall foreign exchange reserves fell by $41bn in December to $3.01tn.

赫爾曼表示，如果中國持有的美國國債進一步下滑至1萬億美元以下，可能會引發(fā)擔憂情緒，因為市場會很難消化拋售活動——從而推高利率。2016年12月，中國總的外匯儲備減少了410億美元，跌至3.01萬億美元。

“China wants to be very careful in how they wind down their Treasury holdings,” said Jerry Lucas, a strategist with UBS Wealth Management. “Overall reserves are approaching the $3tn mark [and] they will not want it to go that much further, which is why they are getting much stricter on their capital controls.”

瑞銀財富管理(UBS Wealth Management)策略師杰瑞•盧卡斯(Jerry Lucas)表示：“中國希望以極其謹慎的方式降低其美國國債頭寸。該國總外匯儲備正接近3萬億美元的關(guān)口，他們不希望外匯儲備降那么多，這正是他們大大收緊資金管控的原因。”

Holdings in Belgium, often scrutinised as a proxy for China ownership, declined by $3bn in November, far less than the near $26bn drop a month prior.

比利時持有的美國國債頭寸經(jīng)常被當做衡量中國所持美國國債頭寸的標準。2016年11月，該國美債頭寸減少30億美元，減少的規(guī)模大大低于此前一個月260億美元的跌幅。

Treasury holdings among primary dealers, responsible for underwriting the US government’s debt, rose markedly in November amid China’s selling. Trading volumes also rose, hitting levels last seen in August 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US credit rating.

由于中國的拋售行為，2016年11月負責承銷美國國債的初級市場交易商手中持有的美國國債顯著增多。成交量也攀升至2011年8月才有的水平。而在2011年8月，標普(S&P)曾下調(diào)過美國的信用評級。

Bill Gross, the famed “bond king”, warned earlier this month that if yields were to rise above 2.6 per cent then the Treasury market risked moving into a secular bear market.

著名“債王”比爾•格羅斯(Bill Gross)曾在本月早些時候警告稱，如果收益率升至2.6%以上，美國國債市場有轉(zhuǎn)入長期熊市的風險。

US Treasury yields marched higher on Wednesday after Janet Yellen, Fed chair, warned of a “nasty surprise” if the central bank holds off raising interest rates for too long.

周三，美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)警告稱，如果美聯(lián)儲將加息耽擱太久，或出現(xiàn)“令人不快的意外”。在耶倫表態(tài)之后，美國國債收益率出現(xiàn)了攀升。

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves inversely to price, rose 9 basis points to 2.42 per cent, with the sell-off accelerating after Ms Yellen’s comments. She added that she expects the Fed to raise interest rates a few times a year until 2019.

由于耶倫表態(tài)之后拋售行為加劇，基準的十年期美國國債收益率攀升了9個基點至2.42%——收益率走向與價格走向是相反的。耶倫還表示，她預計美聯(lián)儲會每年數(shù)次加息，直至2019年。

The news helped reverse the path of Treasury yields, which have been sinking in recent weeks, as investor optimism that Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal expansion and tax cuts will bring renewed growth and higher inflation has started to wane. The rise in Treasury yields came alongside strong US inflation data earlier in the day.

這一消息幫助逆轉(zhuǎn)了幾周來一直在下滑的美國國債收益率走向。原因是投資者樂觀地認為，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的財政擴張和減稅計劃將帶來新一輪增長，高通脹勢頭也已開始減弱。而與美國國債收益率攀升同時出現(xiàn)的，還有當天早些時候強勁的美國通脹數(shù)據(jù)。

“All of a sudden she started speaking and the front end has really started to steepen,” said Mr Herrmann. “We had no idea she was going to be this hawkish. She is normally very cautious and gradual.”

赫爾曼表示：“突然之間她就開始提到加息，收益率曲線的走勢真的開始急劇攀升了。我們沒想到她會如此鷹派。通常，她都是十分謹慎而漸進的。”

The comments also offered respite for financial stocks which on Tuesday saw their worst trading day since the Brexit vote. The S&P 500 financial sector rose 0.8 per cent on Wednesday, leading the index.

耶倫的言論還讓金融股暫時松了口氣。金融股曾在周二遭遇英國退歐公投以來最糟糕的一個交易日。周三，標普500(S&P 500)金融板塊以0.8%的漲幅領(lǐng)漲股指。