美聯(lián)儲可能超預(yù)期加息

Many officials of the US Federal Reserve said the central bank could be forced to lift rates higher than expected if Congress passed conomy-boosting tax cuts next year, according to minutes of the Fed’s final policy meeting of 2016.

根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(Fed) 2016年最后一次政策會議的紀要，許多美聯(lián)儲官員表示，如果明年國會通過提振經(jīng)濟的減稅方案，這家央行可能被迫把利息升高至超出預(yù)期的程度。

Almost all Fed officials meeting on December 13-14 said the risks of growth surpassing their forecasts had grown because of the possibility of more “expansionary” fiscal policy under president-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress.

幾乎所有參加12月13日至14日會議的美聯(lián)儲官員表示，增長超過預(yù)期的風險有所加大，因為當選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和共和黨控制的國會可能推出更具“擴張性”的財政政策。

However policymakers also stressed that it was too soon to jump to firm conclusions about what fiscal policy would actually look like. “Participants agreed that it was too early to know what changes in these policies would be implemented and how such changes might affect the economic outlook,” the minutes to the meeting said.

然而，這些政策制定者們還強調(diào)，至于未來財政政策究竟會是什么樣子，要得出明確結(jié)論還為時過早。會議紀要稱， “與會者一致認為，要了解何種政策變化將得到實施，以及這些變化可能如何影響經(jīng)濟前景，還為時過早。”

The Fed on December 14 raised short-term rates for only the second time in a decade and predicted a quicker speed of tightening this year compared with the one-a-year pace in 2015 and 2016. Speaking after the meeting, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, said the Fed was existing in a “cloud of uncertainty” as it weighs the possibility of tax and spending changes under the new Congress and administration.

去年12月14日，美聯(lián)儲上調(diào)短期利率，這是10年來美聯(lián)儲第二次加息。同時，與2015年和2016年每年加息一次的速度相比，預(yù)計今年的加息速度將加快。美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)在會后表示，美聯(lián)儲在權(quán)衡新一屆國會和新一屆行政當局領(lǐng)導下稅收和支出變化的可能性，它目前正被“不確定性陰云”籠罩。

Minutes of the meeting revealed on Wednesday show just how unclear the path of monetary policy is given Fed officials do not know what details will emerge from negotiations in Congress over the coming months. The possibility of a further surge in the dollar also re-emerged as an important risk factor.

周三公布的會議紀要顯示，在美聯(lián)儲官員不知道未來數(shù)月國會談判將得出什么具體結(jié)果的情況下，貨幣政策的路徑是多么不清晰。美元進一步飆漲的可能性也再次成為一個重要的風險因素。