日本取代中國(guó)成為美國(guó)比較大債權(quán)國(guó)

China has ceded its status as America’s largest creditor nation to Japan after spending a large portion of its foreign exchange reserves to defend the renminbi.

在耗費(fèi)很大一部分外匯儲(chǔ)備保衛(wèi)人民幣匯率之后，中國(guó)把美國(guó)最大債權(quán)國(guó)的地位讓給了日本。

Beijing’s ownership of US Treasuries fell by $41.3bn to $1.12tn in October, according to data from the US Treasury released on Thursday — the sixth straight month of decline. Japan’s holdings fell by $4.5bn to $1.13tn for the same period.

根據(jù)美國(guó)財(cái)政部周四發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，截止10月底中國(guó)持有的美國(guó)國(guó)債減少了413億美元，減至1.12萬(wàn)億美元，為連續(xù)第6個(gè)月減少。同期，日本持有的美國(guó)國(guó)債減少了45億美元，減至1.13萬(wàn)億美元。

Thomas Simons, a money market economist with Jefferies who characterised the Chinese selling as “stunning”, noted that data suggested Beijing’s holdings actually fell by an even larger $67.1bn if Belgian sales were included in the numbers. “This is significant because it is widely speculated that China executes trades with Treasuries held in custody in Belgium,” he said.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)貨幣市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家托馬斯•西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)把中國(guó)減持美債形容為“驚人之舉”。他指出，如果把通過(guò)比利時(shí)減持的部分計(jì)算在內(nèi)，中國(guó)減持美國(guó)國(guó)債的實(shí)際幅度更大，為671億美元。“此事意義重大，因?yàn)橥饨鐝V泛推測(cè)，中國(guó)已開(kāi)始交易托管于比利時(shí)的美國(guó)國(guó)債，”他說(shuō)。

China’s foreign exchange holdings, much of which are invested in US Treasuries, have fallen about a quarter since early 2014 to just over $3tn. The decline has been driven partly by central bank selling of dollars to support the renminbi, which has fallen more than 15 per cent against the US currency over the same period.

自2014年初以來(lái)，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備——大部分被投資于美國(guó)國(guó)債——已減少了約四分之一，目前略高于3萬(wàn)億美元。部分原因在于中國(guó)央行賣(mài)出美元以支撐人民幣。同期，人民幣兌美元貶值幅度已高于15%。

The fall in Treasuries holdings is part of a larger campaign by Beijing to stem capital outflows. China has also recently introduced curbs on Chinese companies’ overseas acquisitions and dividend remittances by foreign investors.

減持美國(guó)國(guó)債，是北京方面發(fā)起的一項(xiàng)抑制資本外流的更大行動(dòng)的一部分。近來(lái)，中國(guó)也對(duì)企業(yè)的海外收購(gòu)和外國(guó)投資者的股息匯款進(jìn)行了限制。

The holdings data predate the US presidential election result and subsequent sell-off in Treasury markets as investors braced for faster US growth under president-elect Donald Trump. His surprise victory has sent the US dollar soaring, adding to the challenges faced by emerging market economies.

上述美國(guó)國(guó)債持有數(shù)據(jù)反映的是美國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉結(jié)果出來(lái)之前的情況，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)并未因?yàn)闇?zhǔn)備迎接當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)治下的美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)提速而發(fā)生拋售。他出人意外的獲勝，推動(dòng)了美元匯率走高，加劇了新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的挑戰(zhàn)。

The data also do not capture overseas trading activity by Chinese state-owned financial institutions. But the reversal — China overtook Japan as the biggest holder of US Treasuries in 2008 — is likely to continue as pressure mounts on the renminbi after this week’s interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve.

該數(shù)據(jù)也沒(méi)有包括中國(guó)國(guó)有金融機(jī)構(gòu)的海外交易行動(dòng)。但這一逆轉(zhuǎn)趨勢(shì)——中國(guó)于2008年超過(guò)日本成為持有美國(guó)國(guó)債最多的國(guó)家——可能繼續(xù)下去，因?yàn)楸局苊缆?lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)加息之后人民幣遭受更大壓力。

“This pattern is unlikely to be reversed in the near future, especially with US and Chinese economic fortunes and monetary policy stances continuing to diverge,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University and former IMF director for China. “The days of China providing abundant and cheap financing for US budget and current account deficits through the purchases of Treasury securities may have come to an end.”

“在不久的將來(lái)，當(dāng)前趨勢(shì)不大可能會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn)，尤其是在美國(guó)和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)勢(shì)和貨幣政策立場(chǎng)繼續(xù)分化的情況下，”美國(guó)康奈爾大學(xué)(Cornell University)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授、前IMF中國(guó)部負(fù)責(zé)人埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說(shuō)。“中國(guó)購(gòu)買(mǎi)美國(guó)國(guó)債，為美國(guó)預(yù)算和經(jīng)常賬戶赤字提供充足的、廉價(jià)的融資的那種日子，也許已走到了盡頭。”