日本取代中國成為美國比較大債權(quán)國

China has ceded its status as America’s largest creditor nation to Japan after spending a large portion of its foreign exchange reserves to defend the renminbi.

在耗費很大一部分外匯儲備保衛(wèi)人民幣匯率之后，中國把美國最大債權(quán)國的地位讓給了日本。

Beijing’s ownership of US Treasuries fell by $41.3bn to $1.12tn in October, according to data from the US Treasury released on Thursday — the sixth straight month of decline. Japan’s holdings fell by $4.5bn to $1.13tn for the same period.

根據(jù)美國財政部周四發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，截止10月底中國持有的美國國債減少了413億美元，減至1.12萬億美元，為連續(xù)第6個月減少。同期，日本持有的美國國債減少了45億美元，減至1.13萬億美元。

Thomas Simons, a money market economist with Jefferies who characterised the Chinese selling as “stunning”, noted that data suggested Beijing’s holdings actually fell by an even larger $67.1bn if Belgian sales were included in the numbers. “This is significant because it is widely speculated that China executes trades with Treasuries held in custody in Belgium,” he said.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)貨幣市場經(jīng)濟學家托馬斯•西蒙斯(Thomas Simons)把中國減持美債形容為“驚人之舉”。他指出，如果把通過比利時減持的部分計算在內(nèi)，中國減持美國國債的實際幅度更大，為671億美元。“此事意義重大，因為外界廣泛推測，中國已開始交易托管于比利時的美國國債，”他說。

China’s foreign exchange holdings, much of which are invested in US Treasuries, have fallen about a quarter since early 2014 to just over $3tn. The decline has been driven partly by central bank selling of dollars to support the renminbi, which has fallen more than 15 per cent against the US currency over the same period.

自2014年初以來，中國的外匯儲備——大部分被投資于美國國債——已減少了約四分之一，目前略高于3萬億美元。部分原因在于中國央行賣出美元以支撐人民幣。同期，人民幣兌美元貶值幅度已高于15%。

The fall in Treasuries holdings is part of a larger campaign by Beijing to stem capital outflows. China has also recently introduced curbs on Chinese companies’ overseas acquisitions and dividend remittances by foreign investors.

減持美國國債，是北京方面發(fā)起的一項抑制資本外流的更大行動的一部分。近來，中國也對企業(yè)的海外收購和外國投資者的股息匯款進行了限制。

The holdings data predate the US presidential election result and subsequent sell-off in Treasury markets as investors braced for faster US growth under president-elect Donald Trump. His surprise victory has sent the US dollar soaring, adding to the challenges faced by emerging market economies.

上述美國國債持有數(shù)據(jù)反映的是美國總統(tǒng)選舉結(jié)果出來之前的情況，當時美國國債市場并未因為準備迎接當選總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)治下的美國增長提速而發(fā)生拋售。他出人意外的獲勝，推動了美元匯率走高，加劇了新興市場經(jīng)濟體的挑戰(zhàn)。

The data also do not capture overseas trading activity by Chinese state-owned financial institutions. But the reversal — China overtook Japan as the biggest holder of US Treasuries in 2008 — is likely to continue as pressure mounts on the renminbi after this week’s interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve.

該數(shù)據(jù)也沒有包括中國國有金融機構(gòu)的海外交易行動。但這一逆轉(zhuǎn)趨勢——中國于2008年超過日本成為持有美國國債最多的國家——可能繼續(xù)下去，因為本周美聯(lián)儲(Fed)加息之后人民幣遭受更大壓力。

“This pattern is unlikely to be reversed in the near future, especially with US and Chinese economic fortunes and monetary policy stances continuing to diverge,” said Eswar Prasad, economics professor at Cornell University and former IMF director for China. “The days of China providing abundant and cheap financing for US budget and current account deficits through the purchases of Treasury securities may have come to an end.”

“在不久的將來，當前趨勢不大可能會逆轉(zhuǎn)，尤其是在美國和中國的經(jīng)濟運勢和貨幣政策立場繼續(xù)分化的情況下，”美國康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經(jīng)濟學教授、前IMF中國部負責人埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說。“中國購買美國國債，為美國預算和經(jīng)常賬戶赤字提供充足的、廉價的融資的那種日子，也許已走到了盡頭。”