Lex專欄：特朗普豪賭只會損害美臺企業(yè)利益

Donald Trump reckons himself a master of the high-stakes gamble. Over the weekend, the US president-elect questioned whether his administration would respect the “One China” policy, by which the US acknowledges just one legitimate Chinese government. This prompted a robust response from Beijing. Any spat risks hurting Taiwan businesses — and US interests as badly.

唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)自認為是高風(fēng)險賭博方面的高手。上周末，這位美國當選總統(tǒng)質(zhì)疑，他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國政府是否還要繼續(xù)遵守“一個中國”政策，即美國只承認一個合法的中國政府。這激起了北京方面的強硬回應(yīng)。中美間的任何齟齬都可能嚴重傷害臺灣企業(yè)以及美國的利益。

Until Mr Trump’s victory in November, China’s government was accepted as the one that rules on the mainland. Earlier this month the president-elect broke with protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. On that occasion, China reacted with restraint, protesting directly to Washington. Like Mr Trump’s posturing, Beijing’s reaction has escalated. On Monday, China hit back, its foreign ministry denouncing Trump’s comments.

直至特朗普今年11月勝選，美方一直承認的是統(tǒng)治中國大陸的中國政府。本月早些時候，特朗普打破慣例，接聽了臺灣總統(tǒng)蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)打來的電話。那時，中方作出了克制的回應(yīng)，直接向華盛頓表示抗議。與特朗普的再次表態(tài)一樣，北京這一次的反應(yīng)也已經(jīng)升級。周一，中方進行了回擊，中國外交部譴責(zé)了特朗普的言論。

US dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing runs deep. Over the years, as technology companies such as Intel and Dell have invested less in production, they have outsourced to Taiwanese manufacturers. Nor does their dependence stop at Taiwan’s shores. As relations between China and its “renegade province” have thawed, Taiwanese companies’ mainland-based facilities have grown. As a result Apple, dependent on the semiconductor maker TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn (listed in Taiwan as Hon Hai), relies on mainland China too. At end of 2015 three quarters of Foxconn’s fixed assets were across the straits.

美國對臺灣制造業(yè)的依賴程度很深。多年來，由于英特爾(Intel)、戴爾(Dell)等科技公司在生產(chǎn)方面的投資減少，它們已將生產(chǎn)外包給臺灣制造商。然而，美國企業(yè)依賴的不止是臺灣。由于中國大陸與其“叛離省份”的關(guān)系已經(jīng)解凍，臺灣企業(yè)在中國大陸設(shè)立的工廠不斷增多。結(jié)果是，依賴半導(dǎo)體制造商臺積電(TSMC)和代工制造商富士康(Foxconn，在臺灣上市名稱為鴻海(Hon Hai))的蘋果公司(Apple)也要依靠中國大陸。截至2015年底，富士康四分之三的固定資產(chǎn)都位于中國大陸。

Disrupting these operations would not be hard for China. Failing that, its government is a past master at mobilising public opinion against foreign companies, for misdeeds real or perceived. It is an unwise man who provokes such mobilisation.

干擾這些企業(yè)對于中國大陸并不難。即使不走這條路，煽動輿論反對外資企業(yè)——無論這些企業(yè)是真的行為不端，還是被這么認為——也是中國大陸政府所擅長的。只有不明智的人才會刺激這種煽動行為。

Perhaps Mr Trump believes Taiwan is expendable in his get-tough stance on China. Alternatively, he may think disrupting companies such as Foxconn will bring manufacturing home. In this game of chicken between China and Mr Trump, it is US companies that risk being run over.

或許特朗普認為在他對中國的強硬立場中，臺灣是可以犧牲的。又或者，他可能認為干擾富士康等企業(yè)就可以將制造業(yè)帶回美國。在中國與特朗普之間這場懦夫博弈中，被坑的可能是美國企業(yè)。