分析：中國可能試探特朗普底線

Donald Trump is likely to face an early test of will from China, according to Asian security experts, with the region desperate to know how the president-elect of the only superpower will react.

一些亞洲安全專家稱，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)很可能在任期的較早階段面臨來自中國的意志考驗(yàn)。目前亞太地區(qū)迫切想知道唯一超級(jí)大國的當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)將如何反應(yīng)。

US allies and adversaries alike are wondering which is the real Mr Trump: the isolationist who says Japan and South Korea should develop nuclear weapons and pay for their security, or the Republican who is surrounding himself with hawkish advisers on China.

美國的盟友和對(duì)手都在揣測(cè)哪一個(gè)才是真正的特朗普：提出日本和韓國應(yīng)該發(fā)展核武器并且為自己的安全買單的那個(gè)孤立主義者，還是那個(gè)身邊都是對(duì)華鷹派顧問的共和黨人?

What that early test reveals is likely to determine how far the next president will reshape diplomacy in Asia, and whether traditional allies such as Taiwan continue to rely on US protection.

早期考驗(yàn)的結(jié)果，很可能決定下一屆總統(tǒng)將在重塑亞洲的外交格局方面走多遠(yuǎn)，以及臺(tái)灣這樣的傳統(tǒng)盟友能否繼續(xù)依靠美國的保護(hù)。

“China will probably keep adding pressure on the Trump government to test their limits,” said Ni Lexiong, a professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law. “Trump’s election can either make peace in the east Asia region or create mass chaos.”

“中國很可能會(huì)不斷地對(duì)特朗普政府施壓，以試探其底線，”上海政法學(xué)院教授倪樂雄表示。“特朗普的當(dāng)選可能給東亞地區(qū)帶來和平，也可能造成大規(guī)?；靵y。”

In 2001 the Hainan island incident, when a Chinese fighter collided with a US intelligence-gathering aircraft, applied heavy pressure early on in the presidency of George W Bush.

2001年發(fā)生的海南島事件(一架中國戰(zhàn)斗機(jī)與一架美軍偵察機(jī)相撞)，在喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)總統(tǒng)任期的早期施加了巨大壓力。

Mr Trump has sought to reassure allies in Asia, speaking by telephone with Shinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, and Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s president. Mr Abe plans to meet the president-elect in New York next week. “His approach to Mr Trump should be very thoughtful,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Ritsumeikan University.

特朗普已尋求讓亞洲盟友放心，他與日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)和韓國總統(tǒng)樸槿惠(Park Geun-hye)都通了電話。安倍計(jì)劃下周在紐約會(huì)晤當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)。“他對(duì)待特朗普的方式應(yīng)該非常深思熟慮，”京都立命館大學(xué)(Ritsumeikan University)客座教授宮家邦彥(Kunihiko Miyake)表示。

Mr Trump’s early actions suggest a traditional Republican approach. “The Chinese think they know businessmen,” said Yanmei Xie, China policy analyst for Gavekal Dragonomics. “They know how to massage the ego of a powerful dictatorial strongman, so they think they can handle him. But now his advisers are emerging and they hold very strong anti-Chinese views.”

特朗普的初步作為似乎帶有共和黨傳統(tǒng)做法的意味。“中方認(rèn)為自己看得懂商人，”龍洲經(jīng)訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的中國政策分析師謝艷梅(音)表示。“他們明白如何把握一個(gè)實(shí)權(quán)在握的獨(dú)裁強(qiáng)人的自我，所以他們認(rèn)為自己能夠?qū)Ω端?。但現(xiàn)在他的顧問正在一個(gè)接一個(gè)浮出水面，而這些人都抱有非常強(qiáng)烈的反華觀點(diǎn)。”

Those advisers include: Alexander Gray, who worked for Randy Forbes, a Republican congressman and critic of Beijing; Mike Pillsbury, author of The Hundred-Year Marathon, which argues that China is gearing up for world domination; and Peter Navarro, an academic who directed and produced the film Death By China: Confronting the Dragon.

這些顧問包括：亞歷山大•格雷(Alexander Gray)，曾為批評(píng)北京方面的共和黨眾議員蘭迪•福布斯(Randy Forbes)工作;白邦瑞(Mike Pillsbury)，《百年馬拉松》(The Hundred-Year Marathon)的作者，認(rèn)為中國正準(zhǔn)備主宰世界;以及學(xué)者彼得•納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)，他曾經(jīng)導(dǎo)演和制作電影《致命中國：與龍對(duì)抗》(Death By China: Confronting the Dragon)。

If Mr Trump responds robustly to any Chinese test, US allies will be relieved and could even adjust security budgets.

如果特朗普對(duì)中國的任何考驗(yàn)做出強(qiáng)有力的回應(yīng)，美國的盟友將會(huì)放心，甚至可能調(diào)整安全預(yù)算。

“Maybe we have to do a little bit more about our own defence,” said Yoshiji Nogami, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs. “I think Mr Abe is aware of that, although whether it’s acceptable to a majority of people here in Japan I don’t know.”

“也許我們不得不為自己的國防多出一點(diǎn)力，”日本國際問題研究所(Japan Institute of International Affairs)所長野上義二(Yoshiji Nogami)表示。“我認(rèn)為安倍君知道這一點(diǎn)，至于這是不是大多數(shù)日本人都能接受的事情，我就不知道了。”

Until Mr Trump demonstrates his commitment to Asia, however, the region’s anxiety level will remain high. “If Trump doesn’t think it is worth it to clash with Russia over Nato, I shudder to consider how he might feel about a clash with China over Taiwan,” said Nathan Batto at Academia Sinica, a research body in Taipei.

然而，在特朗普展現(xiàn)出對(duì)亞洲的承諾之前，該地區(qū)的焦慮程度將保持在高位。“如果特朗普認(rèn)為不值得為了北約(Nato)與俄羅斯發(fā)生沖突，我簡直不敢想象他對(duì)于為了臺(tái)灣與中國發(fā)生沖突會(huì)有多少意愿，”臺(tái)北中央研究院(Academia Sinica)的內(nèi)森•巴托(Nathan Batto)表示。

The big changes in Asia will come if Mr Trump pursues isolationism. “Given the stresses the US-South Korean alliance seems to be facing, Beijing is going to look for every way to insert itself,” said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul.

如果特朗普一心追求孤立主義，亞洲將會(huì)發(fā)生巨大變化。“鑒于美韓同盟似乎面臨的壓力，北京方面將尋找各種方式插一腳，”首爾延世大學(xué)(Yonsei University)教授魯樂漢(John Delury)表示。

It would do so, he added, by playing its “strong cards” — such as telling South Koreans not to install the Thaad US missile system — but also by softer means, such as saying: “Look, you can rely on us and you can’t rely on the Americans.”

他補(bǔ)充說，在這方面，中國將會(huì)雙管齊下，一方面打出“強(qiáng)硬牌”，例如告訴韓方不要讓美國部署末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)(THAAD)，另一方面使出比較柔軟的手段，比如對(duì)韓方說：“瞧，你們可以依靠我們，你們依靠不了美國人。”

If that created a power vacuum, said Ms Xie, “it could create opportunities for China”. Weaker countries could become more accommodating of Beijing, while stronger ones boosted their defence capability. “It could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Asia.”

龍洲經(jīng)訊的謝艷梅表示，如果這造成了實(shí)力真空，“那就可能給中國創(chuàng)造機(jī)會(huì)”。較弱的國家可能變得對(duì)北京方面更加逆來順受，而較強(qiáng)的國家可能提高其國防能力。“這可能從根本上改變亞洲的實(shí)力平衡。”