中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備降至5年多低點(diǎn)

China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped more sharply than expected in October, falling to their lowest level in more than five years, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

中國(guó)央行(PBoC)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備下降大于預(yù)期，降至五年多來最低水平。

Reserves were $3.121tn, a level last reached in March 2011. The monthly decline amounted to $45.7bn, bigger than economists had forecast, with the scale of drop the largest since January when markets were thrown off course by concerns about China’s economy slowing down and a falling oil price.

中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備為3.121萬億美元，上次達(dá)到這一水平是在2011年3月。月度下降457億美元，大于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們此前的預(yù)測(cè)，為1月以來最大月度下降。1月時(shí)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩和油價(jià)暴跌引起擔(dān)憂，全球金融市場(chǎng)陷入震蕩。

Peter Kinsella, emerging markets FX strategist at Commerzbank, said the decline in FX reserves was consistent with the development of dollar-renminbi exchange rates during October.

德國(guó)商業(yè)銀行(Commerzbank)新興市場(chǎng)外匯策略師彼得•金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示，10月份中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備下降符合美元兌人民幣匯率的走勢(shì)。

“What’s interesting is that the decline coincided with an even larger decline in Chinese reserve assets. This, in my view, points to the possibility of capital outflows being larger than the decline in FX reserves suggests,” he said.

“有趣的是，與這一下降同時(shí)發(fā)生的是中國(guó)儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)甚至更大幅度的下降。在我看來，這指向了一種可能性，即資本外流高于外匯儲(chǔ)備下降所暗示的水平，”他說。

Analysts see the PBoC’s monthly reserves data as a proxy for currency intervention, and interpret the central bank’s need to intervene as a sign that it is worried the renminbi is weakening too far.

分析師們把中國(guó)央行的月度外匯儲(chǔ)備數(shù)據(jù)視為匯市干預(yù)的一個(gè)風(fēng)向標(biāo)，并把中國(guó)央行的干預(yù)需要視為一個(gè)跡象，表明其擔(dān)心人民幣過度走弱。

Jens Nordvig, chief executive of the analytics consultants Exante Data, said the scale of central bank FX intervention was a worrying development.

分析咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Exante Data的首席執(zhí)行官延斯•諾德維克(Jens Nordvig)表示，中國(guó)央行對(duì)匯市的干預(yù)程度是令人擔(dān)憂的。

“There are notable cracks emerging under the surface: the fairly orderly depreciation of the Chinese currency over the past few weeks has been achieved only in the face of an aggressive currency intervention by the Chinese central bank,” said Mr Nordvig.

“表面之下正出現(xiàn)明顯的裂縫：過去幾周人民幣相當(dāng)有序的貶值，只是在中國(guó)央行大舉干預(yù)匯市的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)的，”諾德維克說。

The renminbi weakened by a quarter of a per cent yesterday, although attention in the FX market is fixed on the US election. The dollar has been strengthening against most currencies as investor expectation of a Hillary Clinton victory strengthens, and the renminbi was not immune from that effect.

昨日，人民幣匯率下跌了0.25%，盡管美國(guó)大選才是外匯市場(chǎng)的關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。美元隨著投資者對(duì)于希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)勝選預(yù)期的升高而加強(qiáng)，人民幣并未免受這一局面的影響。

Dollar-renminbi currency options are at their lowest in more than a year, said Mr Nordvig, a sign that the market expected stable FX market conditions in China.

諾德維克表示，目前人民幣兌美元匯率期權(quán)處于一年多來低點(diǎn)，表明市場(chǎng)預(yù)期中國(guó)外匯市場(chǎng)狀況將保持穩(wěn)定。

However the US election poses problems for the PBoC, particularly if the dollar rallies further on the back of a Clinton victory and a likely tightening of Federal Reserve policy next month.

然而，美國(guó)大選給中國(guó)央行帶來不少麻煩，尤其是如果希拉里獲勝美元進(jìn)一步上揚(yáng)，以及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)下月可能收緊政策的話。