新聞人物：善于蠱惑民心的杜特爾特

Rodrigo Duterte has barely been in power a hundred days, but he has already made more news in that time than some leaders do in their entire terms of office. The Philippine president has launched a bloody war on drugs, threatened the country’s linchpin alliance with the US and hit the headlines with stinging remarks about targets ranging from Barack Obama to the UN. He has been compared to Donald Trump and has likened himself to Adolf Hitler.

羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)上臺執(zhí)政還不到100天，但他已經(jīng)制造了比一些領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人整個(gè)任期還多的新聞。這位菲律賓總統(tǒng)發(fā)起了一場血腥的反毒品戰(zhàn)爭，威脅要終結(jié)與美國的關(guān)鍵聯(lián)盟，并因?qū)Π屠?bull;奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和聯(lián)合國(UN)等對象出言不遜而屢登新聞?lì)^條。他被外界比作唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)，卻自比阿道夫•希特勒(Adolf Hitler)。

The outrage caused by Mr Duterte’s apparently uncontrollable furies has masked the canny manoeuvring of a veteran politician who swept to a surprise landslide election victory in May. His sales pitch mixes populism of the socially progressive left and the authoritarian right with a stand-up comedian’s urge to entertain — not to mention a blitheness about causing offence.

杜特爾特在5月總統(tǒng)大選中出人意料地獲得了壓倒性勝利，但他看似控制不住的怒火引發(fā)的義憤，掩蓋了他作為一名老練政客的狡猾操弄。他的政治宣傳將左翼社會(huì)層面進(jìn)步的民粹主義、威權(quán)主義右翼與單口相聲演員嘩眾取寵的強(qiáng)烈欲望混雜在一起——且不提對于冒犯別人滿不在乎。

“The Philippines audience appreciates the overall effect, whereas the international observers focus on the most insane comments,” says Richard Javad Heydarian, a Philippine political analyst, who identifies what he calls the “three Dutertes”: showman, punisher and power-playing Machiavelli. “That’s why he remains popular, but the world is revolted by him.”

菲律賓政治分析人士理查德•賈瓦德•海達(dá)里恩(Richard Javad Heydarian)稱：“菲律賓民眾看重整體效果，但國際觀察家們關(guān)注的是那些最瘋狂的言論。”他總結(jié)出了“三面杜特爾特”：表演者、懲罰者、玩弄權(quán)術(shù)的馬基雅維利(Machiavelli)。“這就是他仍然很受歡迎的原因，但世界對他感到惡心。”

The 71-year-old Mr Duterte’s combative performance over the past week or so could serve as a microcosm of his presidency so far. On Sunday, he was saying sorry for the Hitler remarks, in which he said he would be glad to kill millions of drug addicts. By Tuesday, he was telling Mr Obama to “go to hell” and predicting that Manila would swap its military bearhug with the US for arms deals with Beijing and Moscow, potentially offering a chance for a territory-hungry China to dominate the sea of Southeast Asia. On Thursday, an independent opinion poll suggested more than three-quarters of Filipinos were satisfied with their shoot-from-the-hip leader’s performance so far.

71歲的杜特爾特過去一周左右的好斗表現(xiàn)是他總統(tǒng)任期迄今的一個(gè)縮影。周日，他對自比希特勒——表示樂意殺死數(shù)百萬吸毒者——作出道歉。周二，他罵奧巴馬“下地獄吧”，并表示馬尼拉將用與北京和莫斯科的軍火交易取代與美國的密切軍事合作——可能為渴求領(lǐng)土的中國主導(dǎo)東南亞海洋提供契機(jī)。周四，一項(xiàng)獨(dú)立的民意調(diào)查顯示，超過四分之三的菲律賓人對這位行事魯莽的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的表現(xiàn)感到滿意。

Important clues to understanding Mr Duterte are to be found in his upbringing on the conflict-racked southern island of Mindanao. He is the son of a fortune-seeking politician, Vicente Duterte, who served as governor of the province of Davao between 1959 and 1965. Walden Bello, an academic and former Philippine legislator, says Mr Duterte is a product of the “rough-and-tumble world of frontier politics” in an area where there have been long-running Islamist and communist insurgencies.

理解杜特爾特的重要線索，可以從他在菲律賓南部飽受沖突的棉蘭老島成長的經(jīng)歷找到。他的父親是投機(jī)鉆營的政客維森特•杜特爾特(Vicente Duterte)，曾在1959年至1965年擔(dān)任達(dá)沃省(Davao)省長。菲律賓前議員、學(xué)者瓦爾登•貝洛(Walden Bello)表示，杜特爾特是長期受伊斯蘭主義和共產(chǎn)黨叛亂影響地區(qū)的“邊疆政治混亂世界”的產(chǎn)物。

The future president, an unmarried father of four children from previous relationships, first became mayor of Davao city in 1988, going on to serve in the post for more than 20 years. His ruthless crackdown on crime earned him popular support and the nickname “Duterte Harry”. When human rights groups claimed that death squads he supported were responsible for the deaths of 700 people, Mr Duterte retorted without shame that the number was more like 1,700.

離異的杜特爾特是四個(gè)孩子的父親，這位未來的總統(tǒng)自1988年開始擔(dān)任達(dá)沃市市長，并在這一職位上任職20多年。對犯罪的重拳出擊為他贏得了廣泛支持以及“杜特爾特哈里”這個(gè)綽號。當(dāng)人權(quán)組織宣稱他支持的行刑隊(duì)要對700人的死亡負(fù)責(zé)時(shí)，杜特爾特毫無羞恥地反駁稱，這一數(shù)字更接近1700人。

He has now taken the unapologetically tough-sheriff act to the presidential palace. This has had a dramatic impact on foreign policy, where Mr Duterte has softened the previous administration’s hardline opposition to China’s maritime claims and has bridled against western criticism of his human rights record.

如今，他將這種張揚(yáng)的酷吏作法帶到了總統(tǒng)府。這對菲律賓的外交政策產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響，杜特爾特軟化了上屆政府反對中國海權(quán)主張的強(qiáng)硬立場，并且不客氣地駁斥西方對他的人權(quán)記錄的批評。

“He’s the kind of guy who identifies his persona with the state, and sees criticism of himself and his policies as undermining Philippine sovereignty,” Mr Bello says. “I think that’s what attracts him to China — the way the Chinese reject any criticism of their human rights record as an attack on Chinese sovereignty.”

“他是把自身的人格形象等同于國家的一類人，把針對他本人及其政策的批評視為削弱菲律賓的主權(quán)，”貝洛說。“我認(rèn)為，這正是中國吸引他的地方——中國拒絕接受任何對其人權(quán)記錄的批評，并視之為對國家主權(quán)的攻擊。”

Another significant piece in the Duterte puzzle is his training as a lawyer and his cultivation of friendships and alliances with figures on the political left, some of whom have become ministers in his government. He has shown a common touch in promising measures to improve the everyday lives of ordinary Filipinos by restarting delayed rail projects and easing Manila’s notorious traffic gridlock.

理解杜特爾特的另一個(gè)重要部分是他作為律師接受的訓(xùn)練，以及他與左翼政治人物培養(yǎng)的友誼和聯(lián)盟，其中一些人在杜特爾特政府中擔(dān)任部長職務(wù)。通過重啟延期的鐵路項(xiàng)目、緩解馬尼拉嚴(yán)重的交通擁堵，他在承諾采取措施改善菲律賓的民生方面表現(xiàn)出了接地氣的一面。

Mr Duterte has also made the long and apparently intractable Mindanao peace process a priority and is trying to exploit his relationships with insurgency leaders. He has claimed Muslim heritage and even chanted “Allahu akbar” — God is great — while campaigning for the presidency. Mr Heydarian recalls asking only half-jokingly at a conference: “What if he gets nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize?”

與此同時(shí)，杜特爾特已將曠日持久且看似極為棘手的棉蘭老島和平進(jìn)程列為工作重點(diǎn)，而且正在設(shè)法利用自己與叛亂領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的關(guān)系。他曾吹噓自己有穆斯林血統(tǒng)，甚至在競選總統(tǒng)時(shí)高呼“真主至大”。海達(dá)里恩回憶曾在一次會(huì)議上半開玩笑地問道：“如果他被提名諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)會(huì)怎樣?”

The president’s most striking policy so far is a drug crackdown that has led to the deaths of more than 3,000 people, an estimated half of them killed extrajudicially. He has struck a popular chord because the country’s narcotics problem is undeniably huge and previous efforts to deal with it have failed, often falling prey to corruption. The tendency of otherwise decent human beings in dire straits to excuse brutal behaviour towards others has done the rest.

到目前為止，杜特爾特最引人注目的政策是向毒品開戰(zhàn)，這一行動(dòng)已導(dǎo)致逾3000人死亡，其中約一半人系遭到法外處決。他這樣做引發(fā)了公眾的共鳴，因?yàn)榉坡少e的毒品問題無疑非常嚴(yán)重，而且此前的反毒努力都失敗了，常常淪為腐敗的犧牲品。于是總體正派的人們在絕望之下為針對別人的暴力行為尋找借口。

“I know it’s not right,” said one Filipina, who asked not to be named, of a drugs war in which she described the deaths of innocents as necessary “sacrifices”. “But we have to do something. And we have to be tough.”

“我知道這樣不對，”一位不愿透露姓名的菲律賓女士說，她將禁毒戰(zhàn)爭中無辜者的死亡稱為必要的“犧牲”。“但我們不得不有所行動(dòng)。而且我們必須強(qiáng)硬。”

As long such views prevail, Mr Duterte may continue to ride high. The risk for him is that his brazenness, geopolitical gambles and the dark side of his character will overwhelm him. He is still enjoying a political honeymoon and setting his course. There is plenty of time for public disillusionment with this most volatile of leaders to set in.

只要這種觀點(diǎn)占據(jù)上風(fēng)，杜特爾特就可能繼續(xù)春風(fēng)得意。他面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是，他的魄性、地緣政治賭博以及性格中的陰暗面會(huì)將他壓垮。他仍在享受政治蜜月期，可以設(shè)置自己的議程。來日方長，公眾有大把時(shí)間對這名極不穩(wěn)定的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人幻想破滅。