調(diào)查：中國(guó)債券開(kāi)始吸引境外投資者

Foreign fund managers plan to double their investments in renminbi-denominated bonds in the next year, according to a survey that suggests appetite for China’s vast debt market is rising in spite of fears about the country’s financial stability.

一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，外國(guó)基金經(jīng)理打算在未來(lái)一年將其對(duì)人民幣計(jì)價(jià)債券的投資增加一倍，這似乎表明，盡管人們擔(dān)心中國(guó)金融穩(wěn)定，但投資者對(duì)中國(guó)巨大債務(wù)市場(chǎng)的胃口正在變大。

Investors polled by Deutsche Bank said they planned to double their allocation in the next year to about 13 per cent of their local currency portfolios, following moves by China this year to open its bond markets — the world’s third-largest behind the US and Japan.

接受德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)調(diào)查的投資者表示，他們計(jì)劃在未來(lái)一年把各自對(duì)人民幣債券的配置增加一倍，至外匯投資組合的大約13%。此前中國(guó)在今年采取行動(dòng)開(kāi)放在岸債券市場(chǎng);中國(guó)債市的規(guī)模在世界上排名第三，僅次于美國(guó)和日本。

Outstanding onshore bonds are worth about $7.5tn, roughly the same as the rest of the entire emerging market debt universe, analysts have calculated. The US bond markets are worth $35tn and Japan’s $11tn.

據(jù)分析師們計(jì)算，未償還的中國(guó)在岸債券總值約7.5萬(wàn)億美元，大致相當(dāng)于整個(gè)新興市場(chǎng)債市其余部分的規(guī)模。美國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模為35萬(wàn)億美元，日本為11萬(wàn)億美元。

China’s opening of its debt market in May allows international investors to buy onshore bonds under the auspices of a so-called agent bank appointed by the government rather than having to seek approval for an investment quota under a set of rules known as QFII.

中國(guó)在今年5月開(kāi)放國(guó)內(nèi)債券市場(chǎng)，允許國(guó)際投資者通過(guò)政府任命的所謂代理銀行買(mǎi)入在岸債券，而不必按照合格境外機(jī)構(gòu)投資者(QFII)制度申請(qǐng)投資額度。

The changes represented a streamlining of the investment process for foreigners, and a willingness by Beijing to ease tight controls by delegating approval. About 20 banks are agents including HSBC, Standard Chartered and Deutsche Bank.

這些變化代表著境外投資者的投資流程得到精簡(jiǎn)，北京方面愿意通過(guò)下放審批權(quán)來(lái)放松嚴(yán)密控制。約20家銀行是代理銀行，包括匯豐(HSBC)、渣打(Standard Chartered)和德意志銀行。

“Now that access has opened up substantially for offshore investors, we expect foreign participation in China’s domestic bond market to accelerate and for onshore renminbi bonds to be an increasingly important component of major global fixed income investors’ portfolios,” said Michael Ormaechea, head of Deutsche Bank’s global markets unit in the region.

“既然準(zhǔn)入已對(duì)境外投資者大幅度放開(kāi)，我們預(yù)計(jì)外資參與中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)債券市場(chǎng)將會(huì)加速，在岸人民幣債券將在全球各大固定收益投資者的投資組合中成為越來(lái)越重要的組成部分，”德意志銀行全球市場(chǎng)部的亞洲區(qū)負(fù)責(zé)人邁克爾•奧瑪查亞(Michael Ormaechea)表示。

More than a quarter of survey respondents had already filed for registration or were selecting an agent, while a further 40 per cent were looking at the opportunities.

四分之一以上的受訪(fǎng)者已經(jīng)申請(qǐng)注冊(cè)或選定了一個(gè)代理，還有另外40%正在尋找機(jī)會(huì)。

Bankers have reported rising interest from fund managers in the relatively high yields in China. Ten-year Chinese government bonds, for example, yield about 2.7 per cent, compared with 1.6 per cent for equivalent US sovereign debt. Japanese and German government bonds offer negative yields.

據(jù)銀行家們近來(lái)報(bào)告，基金經(jīng)理們對(duì)中國(guó)相對(duì)較高的收益率越來(lái)越感興趣。例如，10年期中國(guó)國(guó)債的收益率達(dá)到約2.7%，而對(duì)應(yīng)的美國(guó)主權(quán)債務(wù)收益率為1.6%。日本和德國(guó)國(guó)債則提供負(fù)收益率。

One catalyst for faster investment by foreign investors would be the inclusion of China in international bond indices, which would force index tracking funds to buy onshore debt. Four-fifths of those surveyed by Deutsche Bank expect that to happen in the next two years.

境外投資者加快投資的催化劑之一將是中國(guó)被納入國(guó)際債券指數(shù)，這將迫使指數(shù)追蹤基金購(gòu)買(mǎi)中國(guó)的在岸債務(wù)。在德意志銀行調(diào)查的受訪(fǎng)者中，五分之四的投資者預(yù)計(jì)這將在未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)發(fā)生。

However, earlier this year onshore equities were turned down for inclusion in MSCI’s benchmark global equities indices partly because foreign buyers were concerned about their ability to repatriate investments on demand. It is a worry also raised by bond investors.

然而，今年早些時(shí)候中國(guó)在岸股票被MSCI明晟拒絕納入其基準(zhǔn)全球股票指數(shù)，部分原因是因?yàn)榫惩赓I(mǎi)家擔(dān)心他們按需匯回投資的能力。債券投資者也已提出這方面的擔(dān)心。

The survey highlighted longstanding concerns over the risks of investing in China. Just over 40 per cent of those polled said they were uncomfortable with the stability of the financial system.

這項(xiàng)調(diào)查突顯了外界長(zhǎng)期擔(dān)憂(yōu)的在中國(guó)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。略高于40%的受訪(fǎng)者表示，他們對(duì)中國(guó)金融體系的穩(wěn)定感到不安。

However, less than a third were worried about the risk of a sharp depreciation in the renminbi — fear of which sent global markets into a tailspin in January.

然而，只有不到三分之一的人擔(dān)心人民幣大幅貶值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);這方面的恐懼曾在今年1月導(dǎo)致全球市場(chǎng)陷入混亂。