聯(lián)合國秘書長競選中的俄美博弈

After months of speculation, the race to become the next UN Secretary-General has reached the point at which support for the official contenders is being tested where it really counts. Two rounds of straw balloting, in which countries are invited to “encourage” or “discourage” the candidacy of each nominee, have already been held by the Security Council. Another is scheduled for next week. Perhaps surprisingly, at a time when the UN is under pressure to appoint its first woman head and recognise the principle of regional rotation by giving priority to candidates from eastern Europe, the apparent frontrunner is neither a woman nor from eastern Europe. He is Antonio Guterres, the former prime minister of Portugal who completed his second term as UN High Commissioner for Refugees last year.

在經(jīng)歷了數(shù)月的猜測之后，聯(lián)合國(UN)秘書長的競選已達(dá)到這樣一個節(jié)點：對正式競選者的支持正在關(guān)鍵地方受到考驗。聯(lián)合國安理會(UN Security Council)已主持過兩輪意向性投票，即邀請各國選擇“鼓勵”或“不鼓勵”每位被提名人競選。下周還會再安排一次意向性投票。目前，聯(lián)合國正面臨著任命首位女性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、以及認(rèn)可地區(qū)輪流原則的壓力，后者要求它優(yōu)先考慮東歐地區(qū)的候選人。然而一個也許令人驚異的事實是，目前看上去領(lǐng)先的被提名人卻既不是女性，也不是東歐人。他就是去年剛剛結(jié)束了聯(lián)合國難民事務(wù)高級專員(UN High Commissioner for Refugees)第二任期的葡萄牙前總理安東尼奧•古特雷斯(Antonio Guterres)。

In the first straw ballot on July 21, 12 of the Security Council’s 15 members registered their encouragement for Guterres’ candidacy, with none against. In the second round, two weeks later, 11 maintained their encouragement while two registered discouragement. In most elections, these figures would be enough to make Guterres the runaway favourite, especially since support for his nearest rival fell sharply on the second ballot. But this is not a normal election and there are good reasons for thinking that the job could eventually go to someone else. Straw ballots are a shortlisting device designed to filter out the weakest candidate and should not be confused with the election itself. Special account also must be taken of the Security Council’s five permanent members. It is the interplay between their competing preferences that will ultimately determine the outcome.

在7月21日的首次意向性投票中，安理會15個理事國有12個對古特雷斯投鼓勵票，沒有國家投不鼓勵票。在兩周后的第二次意向性投票中，11個理事國維持鼓勵票，2個理事國投不鼓勵票。在多數(shù)選舉中，這樣的數(shù)字足以令古特雷斯成為不可阻擋的獲勝者——尤其是考慮到其最接近的對手的支持率在第二輪投票中急劇下滑。然而，這并不是一般的選舉，有充分理由認(rèn)為這一職位最終可能落到其他人頭上。意向性投票是一種旨在剔除最弱候選人的終選名單機(jī)制，不要把它與選舉本身搞混了。還必須特別考慮安理會五個常任理事國的因素。最終決定結(jié)果的，將是它們相互沖突的偏好之間的博弈。

China is playing a low-key role having used its diplomatic muscle to insist on an Asian Secretary-General the last time there was a vacancy. France and the UK are unlikely to veto any candidate supported by the others. That leaves Russia and the US, two countries pursuing radically different visions of world order and locked in bitter rivalry over Syria and Ukraine. As during the Cold War, finding someone capable rising above the climate of mutual suspicion between Washington and Moscow is likely to be the UN’s biggest challenge.

秘書長一職上次出現(xiàn)空缺時，中國已動用外交力量堅持任命亞裔秘書長。出于這個原因，中國這一次十分低調(diào)。至于法國和英國，兩者不太可能否決其他國家支持的任何候選人。這樣，剩下的就只有俄羅斯和美國了。這兩個國家追求截然不同的世界秩序，還在敘利亞和烏克蘭問題上陷入激烈的對抗之中。和冷戰(zhàn)期間類似，找到能超脫于華盛頓和莫斯科間相互懷疑氛圍之上的人選，可能是聯(lián)合國的最大挑戰(zhàn)。

Russia is sticking to its position that the job should go to someone from eastern Europe, the only region never to have held it. Its preferred candidate is Vuk Jeremic, the former Serbian foreign minister who served as president of the UN General Assembly in 2012-13. He came second in the most recent straw ballot with eight countries voting to encourage his candidacy and four voting to discourage it. The main obstacle in his path is opposition from the US. Jeremic remains opposed to independence for Kosovo and is regarded as hostile to Nato. During his tenure at the General Assembly, the US denounced an event he organised on post-conflict reconciliation as “unbalanced and inflammatory” after he gave a speaking slot to the president of Serbia but denied one to the families of those killed at Srebrenica. The US is believed to have used its vote to discourage Jeremic’s candidacy in both straw ballots so far.

俄羅斯堅持該職位應(yīng)由東歐人擔(dān)任的立場，因為東歐是唯一未曾有人擔(dān)任該職位的地區(qū)。該國偏好的候選人是武克•耶雷米奇(Vuk Jeremic)，這位塞爾維亞前外交部長曾任2012-13年聯(lián)合國大會(UN General Assembly)主席。在最近一次意向性投票中，他以8個理事國投鼓勵票和4個理事國投不鼓勵票排名第二。他當(dāng)選的主要障礙是來自美國的反對。耶雷米奇依然反對科索沃獨立，并被認(rèn)為對北約(Nato)懷有敵意。在他任聯(lián)合國大會主席期間，美國曾譴責(zé)他組織的一次戰(zhàn)后調(diào)解活動“偏頗而令人憤慨”，原因是他為塞爾維亞總統(tǒng)安排了演說的時間段，卻拒絕為斯雷布雷尼察被害者的家屬安排時間。據(jù)信美國在迄今兩次意向性投票中都投下了對耶雷米奇的不鼓勵票。

The US candidate of choice is Susanna Malcorra, the current foreign minister of Argentina and former chief of staff to Ban Ki-moon. She rose to third place in the most recent straw ballot with eight encourages and six discourages. In part, US support is a personal endorsement of Malcorra who is well regarded by the Obama administration despite criticism elsewhere of her record as a senior UN administrator. It also reflects Washington’s strong preference for a woman to take the job for the first time. With the US presidential election falling shortly after the UN appointment is due to be made, it is understood that the White House is coordinating its position with Hilary Clinton. Assuming the polls are right, it is President Clinton who will have to work with whoever is chosen to take over at the UN, and her conviction that it should be a woman is known to be strong.

而美國青睞的候選人則是阿根廷現(xiàn)任外長、曾任潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)幕僚長的蘇珊娜•馬爾科拉(Susanna Malcorra)。她在最近一次意向性投票中，以8票鼓勵和6票不鼓勵升至第三名。美國對馬爾科拉的支持一部分是對她個人的認(rèn)可。奧巴馬政府對她贊賞有加，盡管其作為資深聯(lián)合國官員的履歷在其他國家遭遇了批評。此外，對她的支持還反映出華盛頓強烈希望看到女性首次擔(dān)任這一職位。美國總統(tǒng)選舉將在新聯(lián)合國秘書長任命之后不久落下帷幕，白宮現(xiàn)在與希拉里•克林頓(Hilary Clinton)協(xié)調(diào)立場是可以理解的。假定民調(diào)結(jié)果正確的話，將與新任聯(lián)合國秘書長合作的，會是希拉里•克林頓總統(tǒng)。眾所周知，希拉里強烈認(rèn)為聯(lián)合國秘書長應(yīng)由女性擔(dān)任。

This leaves each of the three leading contenders in a difficult position. While it is hard to see how Vuk Jeremic’s candidacy can avoid a US veto, Susanna Malcorra can only succeed if Russia is prepared to drop its insistence on an east European and back the US’s favourite. Guterres faces possibly the greatest difficulty of all. He needs Moscow to break ranks with the rest of eastern Europe and Washington to back down on its desire for a woman.

這使得3位主要競爭者的前景全都不容樂觀。盡管很難看出武克•耶雷米奇的候選人資格如何才能避免美國否決，但蘇珊娜•馬爾科拉只有在俄羅斯準(zhǔn)備不再堅持東歐候選人、反而支持美國青睞的候選人的情況下才能成功。古特雷斯面臨的困難可能最大。他需要莫斯科打破與其他東歐國家的一致，同時還得華盛頓放棄選擇一位女性秘書長的想法。

Unless something significant changes, the Security Council may need to find a compromise candidate. The most obvious solution would be to rally behind a woman from eastern Europe, of which there are only two left in the field following the withdrawal of Vesna Pusic, Croatian foreign minister.

除非出現(xiàn)重大變化，否則聯(lián)合國安理會可能需要找到一位折中的候選人。最明顯的解決辦法將是支持一位來自東歐的女性候選人——在克羅地亞前外長韋斯娜•普希奇(Vesna Pusic)退出競選之后，符合這種條件的只有兩位候選人了。

One is Natalia Gherman, foreign minister of Moldova, and the other is Irina Bokova, the current head of Unesco. With only three encourages and 10 discourages at the last time of asking, Gherman’s support base is probably too narrow. Bokova looks better placed with seven encourages and seven discourages. A former Nato fellow, educated both in Russia and in the US, she is known to have personal support within Hilary Clinton’s inner circle and constructive working relations with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister.

一位是摩爾多瓦前外交部長納塔利婭•蓋爾曼(Natalia Gherman)，另一位是聯(lián)合國教科文組織(Unesco)現(xiàn)任總干事伊琳娜•博科娃(Irina Bokova)。蓋爾曼在上一次的投票中獲得了3票鼓勵和10票不鼓勵，她的支持基礎(chǔ)可能過于狹窄。博科娃獲得了7票鼓勵和7票不鼓勵，形勢看起來更為有利。博科娃曾經(jīng)在北約訪學(xué)，并在俄羅斯和美國接受過教育，據(jù)悉她獲得了希拉里•克林頓核心圈子的個人支持，而且還與俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋•拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)有建設(shè)性的工作關(guān)系。

A lot has changed in the way that the UN chooses its Secretary-General. The process is more open and competitive than ever before. Yet it remains the case that the strongest candidate is often the one that engenders least opposition within the P5 rather than the greatest support among the UN membership as a whole. That may offend our understanding of how elections are supposed to work, but it was the basis on which the UN was founded. Better to bind the most powerful nations in by giving them the power of veto than risk going the way of the League of Nations. Tortuous and counter-intuitive as it sometimes seems, the process of electing a Secretary-General is intended to produce someone that all sides can work with. That is its strength as much as its weakness.

聯(lián)合國挑選秘書長的方式發(fā)生了巨大變化。這一過程比以往任何時候都更加開放和競爭激烈。然而，有一點沒有變：最有力的候選人往往是在5個常任理事國中引起最小反對的候選人，而不是在所有聯(lián)合國成員國中獲得最多支持的候選人。這可能與我們對選舉運作機(jī)制的理解相悖，但這是聯(lián)合國建立的基礎(chǔ)。與其冒險重蹈國際聯(lián)盟(League of Nations)的覆轍，不如通過給予實力最強的國家否決權(quán)而將它們綁在一起。雖然遴選秘書長的過程有時候看起來曲折且有違常理，但目的是找出一個各方都能與之共事的人。這既是它的不足，也是它的優(yōu)勢。