化石燃料逐漸讓位于可再生能源

These are strange days in the energy business. Startling headlines are emerging from the sector that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago.

如今是能源行業(yè)的奇特歲月。該行業(yè)正在涌現(xiàn)一些令人吃驚的頭條新聞，這些新聞在短短幾年前似乎是不可能的事情。

The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority said in May it had received bids to develop solar power projects that would deliver electricity costing less than three cents per kilowatt hour. This established a new worldwide low for the contracted cost of delivering solar power to the grid — and is priced well below the benchmark of what the emirate and other countries typically pay for electricity from coal-fired stations.

5月，迪拜水電局(Dubai Electricity and Water Authority)表示，其已收到幾份開(kāi)發(fā)太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃，完工后的電力批發(fā)價(jià)格將低于每千瓦時(shí)3美分。這創(chuàng)下了全球向電網(wǎng)輸送太陽(yáng)能電力的合同價(jià)新低，且遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于這個(gè)酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)和其他國(guó)家通常向燃煤電廠購(gòu)買(mǎi)電力的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格。

In the UK, renowned for its miserable overcast weather, solar panels contributed more power to the grid than coal plants for the month of May.

在以悲催的陰天聞名的英國(guó)，今年5月太陽(yáng)能電池板向電網(wǎng)輸送的電力高于燃煤電廠。

In energy-hungry Los Angeles, the electricity company AES is installing the world’s largest battery, with capacity to power hundreds of thousands of homes at times of high demand, replacing gas-fired plants which are often used at short notice to increase supply to the grid.

在能源需求極大的洛杉磯，美國(guó)愛(ài)依斯電力(AES)正在安裝世界上最大的電池，其可在需求高峰為數(shù)十萬(wàn)家庭供電，取代那些隨時(shí)待命對(duì)電網(wǎng)增加供電的燃?xì)怆姀S。

Trina Solar, the Chinese company that is the world’s largest solar panel manufacturer, said it had started selling in 20 new markets last year, from Poland to Mauritius and Nepal to Uruguay.

世界上最大太陽(yáng)能電池板生產(chǎn)企業(yè)、中國(guó)的天合光能(Trina Solar)表示，去年開(kāi)始向20個(gè)新市場(chǎng)銷售產(chǎn)品，從波蘭到毛里求斯，從尼泊爾到烏拉圭。

It is not only renewable energy that is throwing out such remarkable news. Production costs in the US shale oilfields have been cut by up to 40 per cent in the past two years, according to Wood Mackenzie, the research company. Cargoes of liquefied natural gas have been heading from the US to the Gulf, making the surplus in North America available to the markets of Dubai and Kuwait even though they sit within the world’s largest oil and gas producing region.

拋出這等非凡新聞的并非只有可再生能源。咨詢公司W(wǎng)ood Mackenzie表示，過(guò)去兩年里，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油田的生產(chǎn)成本已削減40%之多。近期，裝載液化天然氣的貨船從美國(guó)駛往海灣，將北美的過(guò)剩產(chǎn)量供應(yīng)給迪拜和科威特市場(chǎng)，盡管這兩者地處世界最大油氣產(chǎn)區(qū)之內(nèi)。

The implication of those stories is to suggest there are momentous changes under way in the global energy system, undermining received wisdom in the sector. It is clear that the world is shifting toward renewables and — as a proportion of total consumption — away from oil, gas and coal.

這些故事的意義在于暗示，全球能源體系正在發(fā)生翻天覆地的變化，行業(yè)內(nèi)的公認(rèn)智慧正受到挑戰(zhàn)。顯然，世界正轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，同時(shí)——從占消費(fèi)總量的比例看——減輕對(duì)石油、天然氣和煤炭的依賴。

Within the markets for fossil fuels, some sources such as gas are becoming favoured over others such as coal. The question for policymakers and industry experts is how far and how fast these changes can go.

在化石燃料市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部，有些燃料(比如天然氣)正變得比其他燃料(比如煤炭)更受歡迎。政策制定者和行業(yè)專家心里的疑問(wèn)在于，這些變化可能走得多遠(yuǎn)?發(fā)生速度有多快?

Down the decades, an attitude of cynicism in the face of the latest trends has generally been the smart position to take on energy. Assets such as oilfields and power plants are big investments that have operational lives lasting for many decades, and so the fuel mix and fleet of power-generating assets turns over slowly.

幾十年來(lái)，對(duì)能源領(lǐng)域的最新趨勢(shì)抱懷疑態(tài)度總體上是明智的。油田和電廠等資產(chǎn)是大筆投資，其運(yùn)行壽命可以持續(xù)好幾十年，所以燃料結(jié)構(gòu)和發(fā)電資產(chǎn)的改變是緩慢的。

Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP, published a fascinating chart in June showing the rate of adoption of existing energy sources and technologies, which makes clear that it is often a lengthy process. For example, in 1899 gas provided just 1 per cent of the world’s primary energy needs. Five decades later, that figure had grown to 8 per cent.

6月，BP首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯賓塞•戴爾(Spencer Dale)發(fā)表了一張很有意思的圖表，顯示現(xiàn)有能源和技術(shù)的普及速度，清楚表明這往往是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程。例如，在1899年，天然氣僅僅滿足了1%的世界一次能源需求。50年后，這個(gè)比例上升至8%。

While renewable energy has been growing fast, it is coming from a very low base. “Modern renewables” — mostly biofuels, wind and solar, but not hydro or traditional biomass — provided just 2.5 per cent of the world’s primary energy last year, according to BP.

盡管可再生能源近年增長(zhǎng)迅速，但其基數(shù)非常低。BP數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年，“現(xiàn)代可再生能源”——主要是生物燃料、風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能，但不包括水力或傳統(tǒng)的生物質(zhì)——僅僅滿足了2.5%的世界一次能源需求。

That said, there are examples from history of when energy systems have changed rapidly after reaching tipping points. Oil consumption had been growing steadily through the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but really took off during and after the first world war, as warships switched from coal to fuel oil and armies became mechanised with petrol- and diesel-engine vehicles.

話雖如此，歷史上也不乏能源體系在達(dá)到拐點(diǎn)后發(fā)生迅速變化的例子。19世紀(jì)末至20世紀(jì)初，石油消費(fèi)量一直穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)，但在一戰(zhàn)期間和之后才真正起飛，因?yàn)閼?zhàn)艦從煤炭轉(zhuǎn)向燃油，而陸軍借助汽油和柴油發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)車輛實(shí)現(xiàn)了機(jī)械化。

Nuclear power had a similar surge between the Arab oil embargo against the US and other countries in 1973 and the Chernobyl accident of 1986.

1973年阿拉伯世界對(duì)美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家實(shí)施石油禁運(yùn)，以及1986年切爾諾貝利核電站事故發(fā)生后，核電出現(xiàn)了相似的飛躍。

Government policies to address the threat of climate change are today’s equivalent.

如今，政府為應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化威脅而出臺(tái)的政策，成了推動(dòng)能源體系發(fā)生變化的因素。

The commitments to take action to combat climate change made by 195 countries at the Paris talks at the end of last year are a sign that, however contentious the issue may be politically in the US, on a global scale the pressure is unlikely to dissipate any time soon.

在去年底的巴黎氣候談判中，195個(gè)國(guó)家做出了采取措施應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的承諾。這表明，無(wú)論這個(gè)問(wèn)題在美國(guó)可能引起多么大的政治爭(zhēng)議，全球范圍的壓力不太可能很快消失。

This special report includes examples of innovative technologies that could bring further change to parts of the energy industry. Small modular nuclear reactors, for example, intended to avoid the staggering cost of their larger rivals, are being proposed for use in the US or the UK by 2025.

這個(gè)特別報(bào)道系列介紹了幾種創(chuàng)新技術(shù)，它們有望給能源行業(yè)部分領(lǐng)域帶來(lái)進(jìn)一步變化。例如，有人提議到2025年就可在美國(guó)或英國(guó)投入運(yùn)行的小型模組化核反應(yīng)堆，它們有助于避免大型反應(yīng)堆的巨大成本。

At the same time, fossil fuel companies are making strides in their efforts to remain competitive. This is not easy. Not only have oil and gas prices plunged over the past two years, but in the long term weaker demand and more abundant supply are expected. Valuations of companies in this sector have been badly dented.

與此同時(shí)，化石燃料公司在維持自身競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力方面也在取得進(jìn)步。這并非易事。不僅石油和天然氣價(jià)格在過(guò)去兩年里大跌，而且從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看，需求預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)變?nèi)?，而供?yīng)會(huì)更加充足。該行業(yè)公司的估值已受到嚴(yán)重?cái)D壓。

Some new energy technologies, meanwhile, are not making much progress, such as the development of power plants that capture and store the carbon dioxide they produce. It is commonly assumed among policymakers that carbon capture has become essential if humankind is to enjoy the benefits of fossil fuels while avoiding their polluting effects.

另一方面，有些新能源技術(shù)并未取得太大進(jìn)展，比如能夠捕捉并存儲(chǔ)自己所排放二氧化碳的發(fā)電廠。政策制定者們普遍認(rèn)為，如果人類打算繼續(xù)享受化石燃料的好處、同時(shí)避免其污染效果的話，碳捕捉已變得必不可少。

It is clear, too, that the growth of renewables and other low-carbon energy sources will not follow a straight line. Investment in “clean” energy has been faltering this year after hitting a record in 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. For the first half of 2016, it is down 23 per cent from the equivalent period last year.

另外，可再生能源和其他低碳能源的發(fā)展軌跡顯然將不會(huì)是一條直線。彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自2015年創(chuàng)下最高紀(jì)錄以來(lái)，對(duì)“清潔”能源的投資今年已失去勢(shì)頭。2016年上半年，清潔能源投資同比下降23%。

Even so, the elements are being put in place for what could be a quite sudden and far-reaching energy transition, which could be triggered by an unexpected and sustained surge in oil prices. If China or India were to make large-scale policy commitments to electric vehicles, they would have a dramatic impact on the outlook for oil demand.

即便如此，一場(chǎng)相當(dāng)突然且影響深遠(yuǎn)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型的各項(xiàng)元素正在陸續(xù)到位，其觸發(fā)因素可能是出乎意料的油價(jià)持續(xù)大漲。如果中國(guó)或印度對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車做出大規(guī)模政策承諾，那將對(duì)石油需求前景產(chǎn)生戲劇性沖擊。

In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, a character says he went bankrupt “two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” There is a chance that a profound shift in our energy system could sneak up on us in the same way.

在歐內(nèi)斯特•海明威(Ernest Hemingway)的《旭日東升》(The Sun Also Rises)中，有個(gè)人物說(shuō)，他是以兩種方式破產(chǎn)的，“先是逐漸，接著突然。”在我們的能源體系中，一場(chǎng)深刻的轉(zhuǎn)型有可能以同樣方式悄悄向我們接近。