電動車仍需跨越三大“路障”

Earlier this year snakes of people camped outside Tesla stores to place orders for the Model 3 electric car, handing over $1,000 deposits even though they had not seen the vehicle’s full design or specification.

今年早些時候，人們在特斯拉(Tesla)門店外面露宿排隊，預定Model 3電動汽車，并交了1000美元訂金，即便他們還沒有見過這款車的完整設計或規(guī)格參數(shù)。

The company, the biggest carmaker never to use an internal combustion engine, has achieved a market value of $33bn when producing just 50,000 cars a year — compared with a valuation of $47bn for General Motors, which last year made more than 6m cars.

特斯拉是世界上最大的從不使用內燃機的汽車制造商，該公司在每年僅生產(chǎn)5萬輛汽車的時候，市值就已達到330億美元，相比之下，通用汽車(General Motors)的市值為470億美元，而去年該公司的產(chǎn)量超過600萬輛。

Yet despite Tesla’s sales success, take-up of electric vehicles among consumers remains tiny. Fully electric cars (those without a combustion engine) account for less than 1 per cent of new car sales in the UK — which only rises fractionally when hybrids are included.

然而，盡管特斯拉在銷售上取得成功，但接受電動汽車的消費者仍然很少。純電動汽車(那些沒有內燃機的汽車)在英國新車銷售中的比例不足1%——即便算上混合動力車，這個比例也只是略有提高。

Road transport accounts for more than 17 per cent of global CO2 emissions, according to figures from Transport & Environment, an environmental lobby group. Migrating car use to electric vehicles could make a big contribution to curbing man-made carbon emissions. Greg Archer, a director at the group, says: “Combined with the rapidly falling costs for batteries and renewable electricity, it is clear electro-mobility is becoming increasingly affordable and offers an unrivalled opportunity to decarbonise vehicles.”

環(huán)保游說組織“交通運輸與環(huán)境”(Transport & Environment)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球二氧化碳排放中有逾17%來自道路交通。轉向電動汽車可能對遏制人為的碳排放做出重大貢獻。該組織董事格雷格•阿切爾(Greg Archer)表示：“加上電池和可再生電力成本快速下降，電力交通顯然越來越容易承受，為汽車低碳化提供了無與倫比的機遇。”

Large carmakers such as Volkswagen and Fiat are developing either electric or hybrid technology, but this is partly based on attempts to meet stringent environmental emissions standards across their product ranges rather than necessarily satisfying public appetite.

大眾汽車(Volkswagen)和菲亞特(Fiat)等大型汽車制造商正在開發(fā)電動或者混合動力技術，但這在一定程度上只是為了讓它們的產(chǎn)品組合在總體上符合嚴格的環(huán)境排放標準，而不一定是為了滿足公眾胃口。

“You have to bear in mind that today for the majority of people, electric vehicles aren’t the right solution for them yet,” says Erik Fairbairn, chief executive at charging infrastructure group Pod Point. “We need to see a development of the tech before we see it becoming mainstream.”

充電基礎設施運營商Pod Point的首席執(zhí)行官埃里克•費爾貝恩(Erik Fairbairn)表示：“你必須注意，對絕大多數(shù)人來說，電動汽車還不是合適解決方案。我們需要看到這種技術的發(fā)展，然后才會看到它成為主流。”

Three barriers stand in the way of mass adoption of electric powered vehicles: price, range and ease of charging.

電動汽車的大規(guī)模普及面臨3個障礙：價格、續(xù)航里程和充電便利性。

The greatest contributor to the price is the battery, which can account for a significant portion of the cost of an electric car. The dominant force in battery powered cars is costly lithium ion technology, the same used in laptops and mobile phones.

影響價格的最大因素是電池，它可以占到電動汽車成本的顯著比例。影響電池動力車的主導因素是成本高昂的鋰電池技術，后者同樣應用于筆記本電腦和手機上。

A welter of other options are being pursued, from magnesium-based batteries to those that use silicon rather than carbon anodes. Solid state batteries, which promise much greater power and more flexible sizes, are also being investigated.

人們正在尋求其他諸多選擇，從鎂基電池，到那些使用硅而非碳陽極的電池。固態(tài)電池也在研制當中，這類電池有望提供更多電力，尺寸也更靈活。

Other alternatives to combustion engines include hydrogen fuel cells, which use the planet’s most abundant element to drive their motors.

替代內燃機的其他選擇包括氫燃料電池，后者使用地球上最充足的元素來驅動汽車。

Toyota, which led hybrid adoption with its Prius cars, has already launched a fully hydrogen-powered model. Once purchased, the cars are supposed to be virtually free to run, with the cost of an electric recharge being minimal.

率先在普銳斯(Prius)汽車上采用混合動力的豐田(Toyota)，已推出了完全由氫燃料提供動力的車型。一旦買下這款車，就有望近乎免費駕駛，充電成本非常低。

The second, and most significant, public concern about electric vehicles is the range. Recent models such as the Nissan Leaf and the BMW i3 are limited to go under 100 miles — though BMW offers a range extender in the form of a petrol-driven engine to recharge the battery as it drives.

公眾關于電動汽車的第二個、也是最重要的擔憂是續(xù)航里程。最近推出的日產(chǎn)聆風(Nissan Leaf)和寶馬(BMW) i3等車型的續(xù)航里程不到100英里，盡管寶馬電動汽車在行駛時可以用汽油發(fā)動機為電池充電，將其用作一種里程擴增器。

Tesla’s Model S and X cars, which claim to travel in excess of 250 miles on a charge, remain prohibitively expensive for many, costing between $70,000 and $120,000. Carmakers are pushing to hit a sweet spot on technology and price — a $35,000 car that can travel more than 200 miles.

特斯拉的Model S和Model X汽車售價在7萬美元至12萬美元之間，對許多人來說依然極為昂貴——這兩款汽車宣稱充電一次行駛里程超過250英里。汽車制造商正在努力在技術和價格上達到一個最佳平衡點，即一款售價3.5萬美元、續(xù)航里程超過200英里的汽車。

Tesla’s Model 3, still at least two years from the road, is one example of a vehicle capable of both, but rival models are well under way. The Chevy Bolt, an all-electric car from General Motors, will have roughly the same range and price, while mass-market manufacturer VW has pledged that a quarter of its sales will be electric cars by 2025.

特斯拉的Model 3就是一款能夠達到這兩項要求的汽車，但它至少還要兩年才會上路，而競爭對手的車型也在研制之中。通用制造的純電動汽車Chevy Bolt將會有幾乎同樣的續(xù)航里程和價格，同時大眾市場汽車制造商大眾承諾，到2025年其四分之一銷量將是電動汽車。

Once the technology and price reach the right point, adoption could rise to 7-10 per cent, predicts Pod Point’s Mr Fairbairn, “at which point Joe Public will see them everywhere”.

Pod Point的費爾貝恩預計，一旦技術和價格達到合適水平，普及率可能升至7%-10%。“在某個點上，電動汽車將隨處可見”。

The ease and speed of charging both at home and en route are the final hurdle. In the UK, there are about 25,000 installed charging points, of which around 3,000 are publicly available in car parks or on high streets. So-called “destination chargers” — at workplaces, hotels and leisure sites — are also increasingly common. But more are needed to make electric motoring a reliable option for many.

在家中和路上充電的便利性和速度是最后的障礙。英國目前有大約2.5萬個充電站，其中大約3000個在停車場或商業(yè)街，對公眾開放。所謂的“目的地充電站”——在工作場所、酒店和休閑場所——也越來越普遍。但還需要建設更多的充電站，從而讓電動汽車成為許多人的可靠選擇。

“Everywhere you park you need charging points,” says Mr Fairbairn. Unlike petrol stations, where motorists can fill up in a few minutes, electric charging takes much longer.

費爾貝恩表示：“你泊車的地方都需要有充電站。”與幾分鐘就能加滿油的加油站不同，電動汽車充電花費的時間要長得多。

Current technology allows batteries to deliver around 30 miles of range for every hour of charging. It would take the power output of 1,000 kettles to charge a car fully in two minutes, says Mr Fairbairn — and rapid charging is damaging to most batteries. “The nature of electricity doesn’t support the power transfers you need for two minute-charging, even a long way in the future,” he says.

當前技術意味著電池每充電1小時可行駛30英里。費爾貝恩表示，在兩分鐘內充滿電將需要1000個電水壺的電力輸出，而且快速充電會對大多數(shù)電池造成損害。他說：“電力本質上不支持兩分鐘充電所需要的那種電力轉換，即使在很遙遠的未來也是如此。”