美或敦促以外交方式解決南中國海問題

The ruling by a UN tribunal against China’s claims in the South China Sea presents an opportunity for the US to press for diplomatic solutions to the region’s territorial disputes but also raises the risk of a sharper confrontation with China.

一個國際仲裁庭針對中國在南中國海領(lǐng)土主張所作的裁決，給美國提供了一個敦促各方以外交方式解決該地區(qū)領(lǐng)土爭議的機會，但同時也有可能導(dǎo)致美中對峙升級。

In a verdict whose stinging criticism of China surprised legal analysts, the UN tribunal in The Hague said there was “no legal basis” for China’s claim to most of the South China Sea laid out on maps by the “nine-dash line”.

該裁決對中國的強烈抨擊令法律分析人士大吃一驚。海牙仲裁庭在裁決中稱，中國對南中國海大多數(shù)區(qū)域(在地圖上以“九段線”標(biāo)出)的領(lǐng)土主張“沒有法律依據(jù)”。

The Obama administration, which has presented the ruling as a test of China’s willingness to abide by international law, said the verdict was a “new opportunity” to resolve disputes in the South China Sea.

奧巴馬(Obama)政府表示該裁決將檢驗中國是否愿意遵守國際法，并稱該裁決為解決南中國海糾紛提供了一個“新機會”。

But the US will also be on alert for the danger that the Chinese leadership, which might see the ruling as a humiliating slap-down, will seek to take action to defend its claims and will react aggressively to any perceived US military escalation.

但是，美國也會提防中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層或試圖采取行動維護其領(lǐng)土主張、并對其眼中的任何美國軍事行動升級作出激烈反應(yīng)。中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層可能會視此次裁決為一記羞辱性的耳光。

“We ought to try to give China every opportunity to walk itself back from the ledge,” said Admiral Dennis Blair, former head of US Pacific Command. There were factions within China pushing for a less aggressive approach.

“我們應(yīng)該嘗試給中國一切機會讓它自己從懸崖邊退回來，”前美軍太平洋司令部總司令丹尼斯•布萊爾海軍上將(Admiral Dennis Blair)稱。中國內(nèi)部也有部分派別支持采取不那么咄咄逼人的路線。

“I might be kidding myself, but behind the truculent rhetoric, I detect a desire on the Chinese side to ease off,” he said. “The US should do nothing to stop this.”

“我可能是在自欺欺人，但在尖銳的措辭背后，我發(fā)現(xiàn)了中方對緩和事態(tài)的渴望，”他稱，“美國不應(yīng)該阻止這一點。”

Ahead of the ruling on a case initially brought by the Philippines, the US and China have been conducting a rhetorical battle about its importance. While Beijing has rejected the legitimacy of the tribunal in strident terms, US officials have warned China not to undermine international law. Ashton Carter, US defence secretary, said last month that China could “end up erecting a Great Wall of self-isolation”.

在海牙的仲裁庭對這起最初由菲律賓提起的訴訟作出裁決前，美國和中國一直在對該案的重要性進行輿論戰(zhàn)。北京方面以強硬的措辭拒絕承認仲裁的合法性，而美國官員警告中國不要試圖破壞國際法。美國國防部長阿什頓•卡特(Ashton Carter)上月表示，中國可能會“最終豎起自我孤立的長城”。

Behind the sparring lies a deeper geopolitical struggle between the two great powers over whose navy effectively controls the crucial waterway of the South China Sea, a contest with profound implications for how the Asia-Pacific region will be managed in the coming decades.

劍拔弩張的背后，是兩個大國在誰的海軍實際控制南中國海關(guān)鍵航道問題上、更深層次的地緣政治之爭，這場競賽對亞太地區(qū)未來數(shù)十年將如何管理有著深遠的影響。

“The Chinese effectively say that freedom of navigation is guaranteed [in the South China Sea] because we grant it. Our position is that freedom of navigation is not for you to grant,” says Kurt Campbell, former US assistant secretary of state for East Asia.

“中方實際上是說，(南中國海上的)航行自由得以保障是因為他們允許。我們的立場是航行自由不是由你們來允許的，”前美國東亞事務(wù)助理國務(wù)卿科特•坎貝爾(Kurt Campbell)稱。

Paul Reichler, the lead attorney for the Philippines in the case, said the ruling would create space for more diplomacy in the disputes in the South China Sea because it also affected other claimants, including Vietnam and Malaysia.

本案菲律賓方的首席律師保羅•賴克勒(Paul Reichler)稱，該裁決將為南中國海上的糾紛創(chuàng)造更多外交空間，因為它也影響到了包括越南和馬來西亞在內(nèi)的其他聲索國。

“All of those countries can now defend their rights from a stronger position,” he said.

“現(xiàn)在所有這些國家都可以站在更有力的立場上維護自己的利益了，”他稱。

“China is faced with a choice of alienating all of its neighbours for a long time or finding an accommodation that reflects the interests of both these states and of China.”

“中國現(xiàn)在面臨選擇，是長期疏遠所有鄰國，還是找到一個反映中國以及這些國家利益的和解方案。”

Greg Poling, an expert on the South China Sea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said that the Philippines and China could potentially reopen talks about fishing at Scarborough Shoal after the tribunal ruled China had been restricting access traditionally enjoyed by Filipino fisherman. “It opens up some room for accommodation,” he said.

華盛頓戰(zhàn)略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)南中國海問題專家格雷格•波林(Greg Poling)表示，在該仲裁庭裁定中國對菲律賓漁民傳統(tǒng)捕魚區(qū)一直限制進入后，菲律賓和中國可能會重新打開有關(guān)在斯卡伯勒淺灘(Scarborough Shoal，中國稱黃巖島)捕魚的對話。“它帶來了一些和解空間，”他稱。

However, there is also the potential that an isolated China will step up its efforts to develop military facilities in the South China Sea.

然而，孤立的中國也有可能會加緊在南中國海上發(fā)展軍事設(shè)施的努力。

Julie Xue, a Chinese academic at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, said that the ruling will play into the historical narrative stretching back to the 19th century of China constantly being humiliated by imperial powers.

位于倫敦的皇家國際事務(wù)研究所(Royal Institute of International Affairs)的中國學(xué)者薛桂芳表示，該裁決將讓人回想起19世紀(jì)的歷史，那時的中國不斷受到帝國主義列強的羞辱。

“China already sees this as a conspiracy, as a political game cloaked in the idea of international law,” she said. “This will only confirm that.”

“中國已經(jīng)將此視為一個陰謀，視為一場以國際法概念為幌子的政治游戲，”她稱，“裁決只會證實他們的看法。”

That leaves the Obama administration with difficult decisions about how to use military power to enforce the ruling.

這使奧巴馬政府面臨著如何利用軍事實力執(zhí)行該裁決的艱難決定。

The Pentagon will probably seek to deter any further exercises in land reclamation by China in disputed areas and the ruling gives it a clearer legal framework for where to conduct so-called “freedom of navigation operations” that challenge excessive claims. However, it will also be wary of being seen to provoke China.

美國國防部可能會試圖阻止中國在爭議海域進一步填海造島的行動。同時，該裁決給它提供了一個更清晰的法律框架，使它知道可以在哪里展開挑戰(zhàn)過度領(lǐng)土主張的所謂“航行自由行動”。但它也將小心避免被視為挑釁中國。