退歐將永久損害英國經濟

A British exit from the EU would cause “permanentdamage” to the UK economy, cutting output by 6.2per cent and blowing a ￡36bn hole in the publicfinances, finance minister George Osborne claimedyesterday.

英國財政大臣喬治•奧斯本(George Osborne，見上圖)昨日宣稱，英國退出歐盟(EU)將給英國經濟帶來“永久損害”，使經濟產出縮水6.2%，給公共財政帶來360億英鎊的缺口。

In the most significant day so far of the campaignfor the June 23 referendum on EU membership, MrOsborne sought to destroy the economic arguments for Brexit in a 200-page Treasury analysisof the impact of a Leave vote.

在為6月23日就決定是否留在歐盟的全民公投所進行的宣傳活動中，奧斯本在迄今最重大的一天試圖用財政部一份分析英國退歐投票結果影響的200頁報告粉碎退歐的經濟論據(jù)。

With some polls showing the Remain and Leave camps running neck-and-neck, DavidCameron’s government hopes to shift votes with a relentless focus on the alleged threat togrowth and jobs of a British withdrawal.

鑒于一些民調結果顯示留歐陣營和退歐陣營勢均力敵，戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)領導的政府希望通過緊緊聚焦于其聲稱的英國退歐對增長和工作機會的威脅來拉票。

Mr Cameron is expected to receive further support for his campaign on Friday when BarackObama arrives in London; the US president is expected to back Britain staying in the EU.

卡梅倫的宣傳努力有望在巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)周五抵達倫敦后獲得進一步的支持;預計美國總統(tǒng)將支持英國留在歐盟。

The Treasury paper claimed that an exit would lead to falling trade and would put a ￡36bnannual dent in the public finances, equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax.

英國財政部的文件宣稱，英國退歐將導致貿易額下降，將使公共財政收入每年減少360億英鎊，相當于所得稅的基本稅率需要上調8個百分點。

Pro-Leave campaigners have accused the chancellor of scaremongering. But Mr Osborneinsisted the Treasury’s analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership was “serious andsober and conclusive”.

退歐陣營人士指責財相危言聳聽。但奧斯本堅稱，財政部對歐盟成員國身份的代價和收益分析是“嚴肅、冷靜和確鑿的”。

In the central scenario of a bilateral trade deal with the EU, similar to that negotiated withCanada, the economy would be 6.2 per cent smaller after 15 years than if Britain stayed in theEU, equating to ￡4,300 per household.

按照文件預測的核心情景，若英國和歐盟達成類似歐盟和加拿大談判的雙邊貿易協(xié)定，15年后英國經濟規(guī)模將比留歐情況下縮小6.2%，相當于每個家庭損失4300英鎊。

In a scenario where Britain falls back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation, thehit would be more severe with the economy up to 9.5 per cent smaller and households as muchas ￡6,600 poorer, the Treasury calculated.

根據(jù)英國財政部的計算，若英國只能依靠其世界貿易組織(WTO)成員國身份，其受到的沖擊將更為嚴重，經濟規(guī)模的縮水幅度將高達9.5%，每個家庭將蒙受高達6600英鎊的損失。

The idea of Britain negotiating a deal for full access to the European single market while notbeing an EU member was “complete fantasy”, Mr Osborne said. But Eurosceptics pointed outthat if the economic consequences of a Brexit were so disastrous, it was odd that the primeminister should have put the choice to the British public

奧斯本表示，英國能夠在不作為歐盟成員國的情況下談判獲得歐洲單一市場完全準入的想法是“徹頭徹尾的幻想”。但歐洲懷疑論者指出，如果英國退歐真的會帶來如此災難性的后果，首相把這個選擇權交給英國公眾豈不是很奇怪嗎?

Michael Gove, a pro-Brexit minister, will say today the Remain campaign “treats people likemere children, capable of being frightened into obedience”.

支持英國退歐的大臣邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove)今天將會說，留歐運動“把人民當做會因為害怕而服從的孩子”。