英國脫歐有意義嗎 In trade geography matters more than you think
當(dāng)你能夠從美國下載軟件或從澳大利亞下載你最喜歡的歌曲時，不奇怪的是，精通科技者和那些希望英國離開歐盟(EU)的人都斷言，地域上的鄰近從未像現(xiàn)在這樣不重要。這是支持英國脫歐的歐洲議會(EuropeanParliament)成員、英國保守黨人丹尼爾•漢南(Daniel Hannan)最喜歡說的一句話。但它恰恰是錯誤的。
Take two countries, one with historic ties to Britain and which shares the same language, theother is merely in the middle of the European continent. New Zealand and the Czech Republicwere both $200bn economies in 2014, measured at prevailing exchange rates, and Britaintrades significantly more with one than the other. Imports and exports of goods and services in2014 were 3.9 times higher with our European not-so-near neighbour than with our distantformer colony.
以兩個國家為例，一個與英國有著歷史淵源，使用同一種語言，另一個只不過地理位置居于歐洲大陸中部。根據(jù)當(dāng)前匯率計(jì)算，新西蘭和捷克2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模都是2000億美元，英國與其中一國的貿(mào)易明顯多于它與另一國的貿(mào)易。2014年，英國與相距并不算太近的捷克之間的商品和服務(wù)進(jìn)出口規(guī)模，是它與相距遙遠(yuǎn)的前殖民地澳大利亞的3.9倍。
This is not cherry-picking countries. Britain might not play a lot of cricket with Spain but ittrades 3.3 times more with its former enemy than it does with Australia. Both Spain andAustralia are $1.4tn economies, but British people are more willing to travel short haul forsunshine and sangria than for the lifestyle of Neighbours, the long-running Australian televisionsoap opera.
這并非孤證。英國或許不怎么跟西班牙在一起打板球，但英國與這個歷史上的死敵的貿(mào)易額是英國與澳大利亞貿(mào)易額的3.3倍。西班牙和澳大利亞的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模都是1.4萬億美元，但英國人更愿意去鄰近的西班牙享受陽光和桑格里亞酒，而不是千里迢迢去澳大利亞感受《家有芳鄰》(Neighbours)中的生活——《家有芳鄰》是澳大利亞一部播了許多年的電視劇。
Geography still matters in trade, but distance is not the only determinant. Size of market isalso important. As China’s weight in the world economy has grown rapidly, so naturally has theamount of trade with Beijing.
在貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域，地理位置仍然重要，但距離并非唯一的決定因素——市場規(guī)模也很重要。隨著中國占全球經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的比重迅速增長，英國與中國的貿(mào)易規(guī)模自然而然也擴(kuò)大了。
China is a growing share of Britain’s trade, for sure, but let’swe should not exaggerate itsimportance. Compared with the Chinese gross domestic product was $10.4tn in 2014 but tradewith Britain’s trade accounted for 0.9 per cent of itthe Chinese economy, much smaller than theEU’s trade with Britainthe UK, which accounted for 5.5 per cent of the EU economy in 2014.
中國在英國對外貿(mào)易中所占比重肯定正日益上升，但我們不應(yīng)夸大中國的重要性。中國2014年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)為10.4萬億美元，中英貿(mào)易僅占中國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的0.9%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于歐盟與英國貿(mào)易規(guī)模占前者經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的比例，這一比例在2014年為5.5%。
Not only is Britain’s trade with the EU much larger relative to the size of the market, geographyalso appears to be becoming more, not less, important. Ten years earlier, in 2004, Beijing’strade with the UK accounted for 1.4 per cent of China’s economy, a larger slice, but the tradeintensity with the EU has remained essentially the same.
不僅是英國與歐盟的貿(mào)易以市場規(guī)模衡量比它與中國的貿(mào)易密切得多，地理位置的重要性似乎也在上升，或者也可以理解為在下降。2004年，中國與英國的貿(mào)易占中國經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的1.4%，比例高于今日，但與歐盟的貿(mào)易強(qiáng)度則一直保持基本不變。
So-called gravity models, which are economic analyses that try to explain trade patterns bygeography and size of markets, find that Britain trades more than might be expected withEurope largely because that market is much more integrated than a free-trade zone.
所謂的貿(mào)易引力模型(gravity model)發(fā)現(xiàn)，英國與歐洲的貿(mào)易密切程度可能超過了模型的預(yù)計(jì)，這在很大程度上是因?yàn)檫@個市場的一體化程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過自由貿(mào)易區(qū)。貿(mào)易引力模型是一種經(jīng)濟(jì)分析，試圖通過地理位置因素和市場規(guī)模解釋貿(mào)易模式。
Although the economic theory of trade started with David Ricardo’s stories about exchangingPortuguese wine for British cloth, most modern trade occurs among similar goods and servicesin similar markets. It and brings benefits from increased forces of competition, raisingproductivity through improved processes and management and eliminating theinefficientproducers.
盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中關(guān)于貿(mào)易的理論始于大衛(wèi)?李嘉圖(David Ricardo)用葡萄牙紅酒交換英國布料的故事，但多數(shù)現(xiàn)代貿(mào)易表現(xiàn)為相似市場之間交換相似的商品和服務(wù)。這種交換是有好處的，因?yàn)樗哟罅耸袌龈偁?，而競爭能夠促使生產(chǎn)者改進(jìn)流程和管理、淘汰生產(chǎn)效率低下的產(chǎn)品，從而提高生產(chǎn)率。
Reducing tariffs and removing quotas boost trade and bring gains but deeper integration,harmonisation of regulation, recognition of other countries standards, prohibition ofartificial state aid and eliminating non-tariff barriers are more powerful. For Britain, the onlybig and close market in which it can achieve these benefits is the European single market. Allother large markets are too far away.
降低關(guān)稅和取消配額會擴(kuò)大貿(mào)易并帶來好處，但加深一體化、統(tǒng)一監(jiān)管制度、承認(rèn)別國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、禁止人為政府援助和消除非關(guān)稅壁壘是更有力的辦法。英國唯一能夠享受到這些好處的大型封閉市場就是歐洲單一市場。所有其他大型市場都距離太遠(yuǎn)。
Countries and companies often find deep integration uncomfortable because the weak go tothe wall complaining bitterly. But that is as it should be. Complete in goods, the single marketstill needs to develop further in services.
國家和企業(yè)通常往往不愿意推進(jìn)深層次的一體化，因?yàn)槿跽邥舐暠г?。但就?yīng)該這樣做。歐洲單一市場在商品自由流動方面已經(jīng)發(fā)展完備，但仍需繼續(xù)破除阻礙服務(wù)自由流動的障礙。
Britain would therefore be deluded to leave the single market even if it were to vote to leavethe EU. That, of course, would mean the country would have to pay an entry fee, accept freemovement of people, regulation set in Brussels and pooled sovereignty. In which case, it islegitimate to ask, what is the point of Brexit?
因此，即便英國投票離開歐盟，英國離開單一市場將是愚蠢的。當(dāng)然，留在單一市場則意味著，英國將不得不支付市場準(zhǔn)入費(fèi)，接受人員的自由流動、由布魯塞爾制定的監(jiān)管規(guī)定以及主權(quán)共享。那樣的話，我們有理由問：英國脫歐還有何意義?
