機器人將"占領"東亞制造業(yè)

Robots will replace a growing number of jobs inindustries including automotive and electronics in thenext few years, particularly in east Asia, according tonew research.

一項新研究顯示，未來幾年，機器人將取代自動化和電子產品等行業(yè)越來越多的工作崗位，尤其是在東亞地區(qū)。

Worldwide sales of industrial robots rose 23 per centlast year and are on course to double by 2018,driving radical change in many manufacturingsectors, Boston Consulting Group said.

波士頓咨詢集團(BCG)表示，全球工業(yè)機器人銷量去年增長23%，到2018年將翻一番，這將令很多制造業(yè)領域發(fā)生徹底變革。

 

 

Although robots have been used in industry for decades, recent advances in technology havecut their costs and increased their capabilities, as a new generation of reprogrammable,multipurpose machines comes into service.

盡管機器人在工業(yè)中的使用已有幾十年時間，但最近科技的進步降低了機器人成本并提升了其性能，此際新一代可再編程的多用途機器人正投入使用。

The prices of industrial robots have been falling steadily, dropping about 14 per cent in the pastfour years to $133,000 for a typical system, while capabilities have been expanding.

工業(yè)機器人的價格一直在穩(wěn)步下降，過去4年已累計下跌14%左右，至13.3萬美元，同時性能一直在提升。

Some robots are even cheaper: the Baxter robot from Rethink Robotics has a listed base priceof $25,000, making it accessible to smaller companies that might have found it difficult toinvest in earlier generations.

一些機器人的價格甚至更低： Rethink Robotics的Baxter機器人基礎定價為2.5萬美元，讓那些可能很難投資于之前幾代機器人的較小公司也能買得起。

Five countries — China, the US, Japan, Germany and South Korea — are expected to accountfor about 80 per cent of investment in industrial robots over the coming decade.

預計中國、美國、日本、德國和韓國5國將占到未來10年工業(yè)機器人投資的80%左右。

Advanced robots are set to cut costs and raise productivity, reducing employment inmanufacturing in developed countries, while raising the skill levels demanded of the staff thatremain.

先進的機器人旨在降低成本并提升生產率，從而減少發(fā)達國家制造業(yè)就業(yè)，同時提高現(xiàn)有員工所需的技能水準。

They are also likely to make labour costs a less significant factor for manufacturers makingdecisions about where to invest.

它們還可能會在制造商在做出投資目的地決定時，讓勞動力成本的因素不那么重要。

About 200,000 industrial robots were shipped last year, BCG estimates, up from 163,000 in2013, and in three years' time the number could rise to 400,000.

BCG估計，去年工業(yè)機器人銷量達到20萬臺左右，高于2013年的16.3萬臺，到2017年，這一數(shù)字可能會升至40萬臺。

In the manufacturing sectors that are the most readily automated, including cars and othertransport equipment, computers and electronics and electrical equipment, about 85 per cent oftasks can be performed by robots, according to BCG.

在最容易實現(xiàn)自動化的制造業(yè)(包括汽車和其他運輸設備、電腦、電子產品和電器設備)，約85%的工作可能會由機器人完成。

Those sectors are likely to use the most robots over the coming decade, but other areas suchas chemicals and metals are also likely to see increasing adoption of the newer, more flexiblemachines.

未來幾十年，這些行業(yè)使用的機器人可能會最多，但化工和金屬等其他行業(yè)使用這種更為新穎靈活的機器的做法可能也會越來越多。

The uptake of industrial robots will vary between countries as well as between industries,depending on factors including wage costs and labour regulations that could limit employers’ability to replace workers with robots. BCG expects the fastest adoption will come in SouthKorea, Taiwan and Thailand, which have heavy concentrations of the industries that are capableof high levels of automation, higher labour costs than some of their low-wage competitors, andlimited employment protections that would prevent job cuts.

工業(yè)機器人的使用情況將會因國家和行業(yè)的不同而不同，這取決于很多因素，包括薪資成本以及勞動力監(jiān)管規(guī)定——這些規(guī)定可能會限制雇主用機器人取代員工的能力。BCG預測，韓國、臺灣和泰國將是最快使用機器人的國家，這些國家擁有大量能夠實現(xiàn)高度自動化的行業(yè)，勞動力成本高于一些低薪資競爭國家，而且就業(yè)保護有限(就業(yè)保護將阻止裁員)。

Other relatively rapid adopters are expected to be China, Japan, the US, the UK and Canada.

預計其他使用工業(yè)機器人相對迅速的國家將是中國、日本、美國、英國和加拿大。

The countries likely to be slowest to embrace the new robots include more heavily regulatedeconomies of Europe including France, Italy and Spain, as well as Brazil and India, according toBCG.

BCG稱，最慢接納新一代機器人的國家可能是那些歐洲監(jiān)管較嚴的經濟體，包括法國、意大利和西班牙等，還有巴西和印度。