金融業(yè)應迎接科技革命

Over the past year, I have come across several caseswhere the forces of financial democratisation areredefining the outer edges of the financial serviceindustry. Enabled by disruptive technologies andpost-crisis mindsets, they also have the potential toimprove the broader intermediation process thatbrings together sources and uses of productivecapital. It is part of a broader phenomenon that hasdominated the technology sector and is playing outin media and elsewhere. It is one that requiresadjustments on the part of traditional institutionsand the authorities that regulate them.

過去一年中，我遇到過幾次這樣的情形：金融民主化的力量正在重新界定金融服務業(yè)的外部邊緣。在顛覆性技術和后危機思維模式的幫助下，這一力量也有潛力改善更廣泛的金融中介流程，將可產(chǎn)生效益的資本的提供者和使用者集合到一起。這是一種更廣泛現(xiàn)象的一部分，這一現(xiàn)象已經(jīng)主導了科技領域，而且正在媒體及其他領域展開。這一現(xiàn)象需要傳統(tǒng)機構以及監(jiān)管當局做出調整。

The democratisation of finance comes in many forms. A notable one is the use of “peer-to-peer” and direct lending platforms to bypass costly intermediaries. These link borrowers andlenders in cost efficient ways. and are among the changes that are reshaping interactions andempowering individuals. Driven by the digital revolution, the y encourage entrants withgreater cognitive diversity, including a tilt in favour of technological disruption.

金融民主化有多種形式。一種值得關注的形式，是使用個人對個人(peer-to-peer，簡稱P2P)和直接貸款平臺，繞開費用昂貴的中介機構。這些平臺以低成本的方式為借款人和貸款人牽線搭橋。這些變化正在重塑人們的互動方式，并增強個人賦權。在數(shù)字革命的推動下，它們使參與者的認知更具多樣性，包括支持技術性顛覆。

No wonder more tech entrepreneurs are taking an interest in the financial sector, which criesout for disruption given its slow adoption of technologies, its profitability, and the difficulties ithas had in enabling superior client outcomes. Outside forces also play a role. Banks still face atrust deficit. Regulators, prompted by consumer protection approaches, favour the delivery offinancial services that are better aligned with client success.

難怪越來越多的科技企業(yè)家對金融行業(yè)感興趣。鑒于金融業(yè)對技術的緩慢應用、盈利現(xiàn)狀以及在幫助優(yōu)質客戶實現(xiàn)目標上的困難，這一行業(yè)迫切需要顛覆。外部力量也發(fā)揮了作用。銀行仍然面臨信任赤字。監(jiān)管機構在消費者保護政策的推動下，偏愛那些更能助力客戶成功的金融服務活動。

The upside is considerable; and it is powerful when it comes to delivering better financialservices to vulnerable segments of the population. Lowering entry barriers widens thesources and uses of loanable funds; and by reducing costs, improves the terms offered tousers. The influx of greater cognitive diversity makes the industry more dynamic.Institutions that choose to align their products and services with their client’s success becomebetter positioned for commercial gain.

有利因素很可觀;在向人口中脆弱的人群提供更好的金融服務方面，這些因素的作用很強大。進入門檻的降低擴大了可貸資金的來源和用途;通過降低成本，可以改善提供給用戶的服務條款。人們的認知更具多樣性，使得這一行業(yè)更有活力。將自己的產(chǎn)品和服務與客戶的成功協(xié)調一致的機構更能獲得商業(yè)回報。

Through the incorporation of behavioural finance and data analytics, the disruptive forces alsohelp to wean the industry off its obsession with FICO scores in favour of analytical modelsmore calibrated with financial health. Though these models have yet to be tested through adownturn, more complete pictures of financial mindset and behaviour are emerging.

通過將行為金融學和數(shù)據(jù)分析結合起來，這股顛覆性力量也可以幫助金融業(yè)擺脫對FICO評分的依賴。FICO評分偏向于主要以財務狀況來校準的分析模型。盡管這些模型還沒有經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟衰退的檢驗，但關于金融思維模式和行為的更多全貌正在顯現(xiàn)。

The disruptions will be embraced by the more progressive institutions but opposed by manytraditional incumbents. They require regulatory catch-up. Finance will be following a pathalready trodden by technology and media. In both cases, technological change has madeactivities more accessible to broader segments of society. Like these predecessors, the key willbe the success that participants have in combining content with platforms.

這些顛覆力量將被更為進步的機構接受，但也會遭到許多傳統(tǒng)機構的反對。監(jiān)管必須趕上來。金融業(yè)將追隨科技和媒體業(yè)已經(jīng)開辟的道路。在這兩個行業(yè)，技術變革都使服務惠及更廣泛的社會階層。像科技和媒體業(yè)一樣，關鍵是參與者能成功將內容與平臺結合起來。

If finance breaks the content-platform code, the “win-win-win” of financial democratisation willaccrue to consumers, the innovative providers, and a system that can deliver better services.

如果金融業(yè)能破解內容-平臺的密碼，那么消費者、創(chuàng)新的服務提供者、以及可以提供更好服務的金融系統(tǒng)，將獲得金融民主化帶來的“三贏”。

If it fails to do so, the developments will be contained to the outer edges of an industry thatstruggles to regain its credibility and contributions to growth.

如果做不到這些，金融民主化的發(fā)展將被限定在金融業(yè)的外部邊緣，而金融業(yè)仍在為恢復信譽以及貢獻經(jīng)濟增長而苦苦掙扎。

The writer is chief economic adviser to Allianz. He recently took an equity stake in Payoff, a USpeer-to-peer lender.

本文作者是安聯(lián)集團(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟顧問。他最近獲得了美國P2P貸款機構Payoff的部分股權。