金融動(dòng)蕩 不安情緒籠罩達(dá)沃斯

DAVOS, Switzerland — Fear is back in the valley ofthe privileged.

瑞士達(dá)沃斯——在這座權(quán)貴云集的山谷里，擔(dān)憂的情緒又回來(lái)了。

Financial instability is again a prime source ofanxiety for participants at the World EconomicForum after receding last year. Russia and Ukraine,cheap oil, volatile currency markets, deflation,terrorism and even Switzerland are unsettling theglobal economy and sowing nervousness amongthe people attending the forum, many of thembankers or investors.

在今年的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)上，金融動(dòng)蕩再次成為令與會(huì)者心焦的一個(gè)主要原因，而去年的時(shí)候，這種擔(dān)憂一度消散。俄烏關(guān)系、低油價(jià)、動(dòng)蕩的貨幣市場(chǎng)、通貨緊縮、恐怖主義乃至瑞士都在擾亂全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，并在出席本次論壇的人們心中植入了不安。與會(huì)者中，有不少是銀行業(yè)高管或投資人。

 

 

The sense of being blindsided by events was summed up by David M. Rubenstein, co-chiefexecutive of the private equity firm Carlyle Group. He told the audience at a panel onWednesday that they should take everything he said with a grain of salt because his predictionslast year were way off.

私募公司凱雷投資集團(tuán)(Carlyle Group)的聯(lián)席首席執(zhí)行官戴維·D·魯賓斯坦(David M. Rubenstein)對(duì)這種猝不及防的感覺進(jìn)行了總結(jié)。在周三的一場(chǎng)討論會(huì)上，他告訴觀眾，自己講的話不可全信，因?yàn)樗ツ甑念A(yù)測(cè)就錯(cuò)得離譜。

“I wouldn’t have predicted oil prices would go down,” Mr. Rubenstein said. “I wouldn’t havepredicted U.S. growth would be as strong as it has been, I wouldn’t have predicted theslowdown in some of the emerging markets, I certainly wouldn’t have predicted deflation inEurope.”

“我沒有料到油價(jià)會(huì)下行，”魯賓斯坦說。“我沒有料到美國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)如此強(qiáng)勁，我沒有料到一些新興市場(chǎng)增速放緩，我也絕沒有料到歐洲會(huì)出現(xiàn)通縮。”

The sense of nervousness has been heightened by the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier thismonth. Security at the World Economic Forum, which every year turns the town into a virtualmilitary protectorate, was tightened even further. In a new practice, the Swiss police shinedflashlights into the shuttle vans that bring participants to hotels and events, requiringpassengers to show their credentials.

本月早些時(shí)候巴黎爆發(fā)的恐怖襲擊令這種惴惴不安的感覺進(jìn)一步加深。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇每年都會(huì)讓這座小城變得形同軍事堡壘，而這次的安保工作又更上一層樓。瑞士警察采取了一種新措施，會(huì)向運(yùn)送與會(huì)者在酒店和活動(dòng)場(chǎng)館之間穿梭的巴士閃燈，提示乘客展示自己的證件。

“It’s that fear factor,” Anne Richards, chief investment officer of Aberdeen Asset Management,said in an interview. “What is going to hit now?”

“就是這種擔(dān)憂因素，”安本資產(chǎn)管理(Aberdeen Asset Management)的首席投資官安妮·理查茲(AnneRichards)接受采訪時(shí)說。“現(xiàn)在又會(huì)出現(xiàn)哪種沖擊呢?”

Even recent economic events that are mostly positive create instability, panelists said. Theplunge in oil prices is great for consumers, but has undercut the Russian economy, withrepercussions for Europe. Mr. Rubenstein said that Russian companies had borrowed $650billion from Western countries, mostly European banks.

參會(huì)者表示，就連看來(lái)最正面的一些近期經(jīng)濟(jì)事件也帶來(lái)了動(dòng)蕩。油價(jià)暴跌對(duì)消費(fèi)者來(lái)說是件好事，但它削弱了俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)，從而間接影響到歐洲。魯賓斯坦稱，俄羅斯企業(yè)從歐洲國(guó)家借走了6500億美元(約合4萬(wàn)億元人民幣)，而主要的出借方是歐洲的銀行。

“If the Russian companies, because of their economies, can’t service that debt, that’s going tobe a problem,” he said.

“假如俄羅斯的公司，因?yàn)樗麄儑?guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)困難而沒有能力償債，那么就會(huì)構(gòu)成問題，”他說。

Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC Holdings, noted that when regulators tested the resiliency ofbanks this year, none considered situations in which oil was $50 a barrel. “The last several yearshave taught us to expect the unexpected and to prepare for the worst,” Mr. Flint said at adifferent panel discussion.

匯豐控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings)的董事長(zhǎng)范智廉(Douglas Flint)指出，當(dāng)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)上次對(duì)各大銀行進(jìn)行壓力測(cè)試時(shí)，沒有任何人考慮到油價(jià)為每桶50美元的情景。“這幾年給我們的教訓(xùn)是，準(zhǔn)備迎接意外，做最壞的打算，”范智廉在另一場(chǎng)討論會(huì)上表示。

The discussions came a day before the European Central Bank was expected to announce thatit would begin broad-based bond purchases to try to stimulate the European economy. Butthere was pessimism that central banks could continue to rescue global economies.

周三的這些討論發(fā)生在歐洲央行(European Central Bank)展開行動(dòng)的頭一天。外界估計(jì)，該行會(huì)宣布啟動(dòng)一項(xiàng)覆蓋面甚廣的債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃，嘗試以此刺激歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)。然而，對(duì)于各大央行能否持續(xù)拯救全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，會(huì)上存在悲觀情緒。

“We are looking forward to the E.C.B. announcement tomorrow,” said Min Zhu, deputymanaging director of the International Monetary Fund.

“我們?cè)谄诖龤W洲央行明天的聲明，”國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)副總裁朱民稱。

But he said that the eurozone economy required policies to stimulate demand, like spending onpublic infrastructure or changes in laws that restrict hiring and firing. “Interest rates are zeroalready. What do they do?” Mr. Zhu said of central banks. “We need supply-side policies.”

不過，他表示歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)還需要刺激需求的政策，比如增加公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面的開支，或是改革限制雇傭與解聘的法規(guī)。“利率已經(jīng)是零了。我們還能做什么?”談到各大央行時(shí)，朱民問道。“我們需要供給經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方面的政策。”

Even a month ago, no one would have predicted that Switzerland, one of the wealthiest andmost stable countries in the world, would become a subject of concern. But the country facesan economic crisis after the Swiss National Bank last week abandoned attempts to check therise of the Swiss franc against the euro. The franc has risen 20 percent against the euro sincethen, an increase that made the stay in Davos even more costly than usual and, moreimportant, threatened the competitiveness of Swiss industry.

就在一個(gè)月前，還無(wú)人能料到，身處世界上最富裕、最穩(wěn)定國(guó)家之列的瑞士會(huì)成為大家擔(dān)憂的對(duì)象?？墒巧现?，瑞士國(guó)家銀行(Swiss National Bank)放棄了控制瑞士法郎兌歐元匯率的做法，一場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)隨即擺在了該國(guó)面前。自那以后，瑞郎對(duì)歐元升值了20%。這樣的漲幅讓奔赴達(dá)沃斯參會(huì)的花銷更勝以往，但更重要的是，它威脅到了瑞士各大行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

Axel Weber, chairman of the Swiss bank UBS, said the Swiss central bank “did the right thing”in acknowledging that it could no longer keep a cap on the franc. He predicted that the Swisscurrency would retreat from current levels.

瑞銀(UBS)董事長(zhǎng)?？巳麪?middot;韋伯(Axel Weber)認(rèn)為，瑞士央行承認(rèn)已無(wú)力承擔(dān)對(duì)瑞郎設(shè)限“是正確之舉”。他預(yù)測(cè)，瑞郎將會(huì)從當(dāng)前的水平上貶值。

“There are challenges and pressures, but I think they are manageable,” said Mr. Weber, theformer president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank.

“當(dāng)前存在一些挑戰(zhàn)和壓力，但我認(rèn)為是可控的，”韋伯說。他曾擔(dān)任德國(guó)央行德國(guó)聯(lián)邦銀行(Bundesbank)的行長(zhǎng)。

But he was pessimistic about Europe. Noting that he had appeared at a panel called, “IsEurope Back?” last year at the forum, he said this time around, “Europe’s not back,” adding, “The problems are back.”

不過，他對(duì)歐洲持總體悲觀的態(tài)度。韋伯指出，他去年曾在達(dá)沃斯出席一場(chǎng)名為《歐洲是否已經(jīng)回歸?》的討論會(huì)，而到了今年，“歐洲并沒有回歸，問題卻回歸了。”

A hint of geopolitical tension, in the otherwise convivial atmosphere at the gathering, emergedat a panel sponsored by The Wall Street Journal that examined why economies and financialmarkets have become more volatile. Arkady Dvorkovich, deputy prime minister of Russia, wascritical of the United States.

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇通常氛圍輕松，但在《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(The Wall Street Journal)資助的一場(chǎng)討論會(huì)上，地緣政治沖突初現(xiàn)端倪。會(huì)議關(guān)注的是各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體與金融市場(chǎng)為何變得更為動(dòng)蕩。俄羅斯副總理阿爾卡季·德沃爾科維奇(Arkady Dvorkovich)對(duì)美國(guó)展開了批評(píng)。

“The problem with American growth, it is more at the expense of other countries sometimes,”said Mr. Dvorkovich, who also called sanctions imposed on Russia in retaliation for its behaviorin Ukraine “stupid.”

“美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的問題在于，有時(shí)候更多地以別國(guó)為代價(jià)，”德沃爾科維奇說。對(duì)于為了報(bào)復(fù)俄羅斯在烏克蘭所作所為而施加的制裁，他也直呼“愚蠢”。

Still, some experts said the gloom was overdone. “The rest of the world will recover over time,”Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University, said on the same panel. “Thesethings don’t last forever.”

雖說如此，還是有專家認(rèn)為目前的陰郁情緒過了頭。“隨著時(shí)間的推移，世界其他地方也會(huì)復(fù)蘇，”哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授肯尼斯·羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)在同一場(chǎng)討論會(huì)上說。“這些事情不會(huì)沒完沒了。”