安倍選舉大勝在即，政策仍未明朗

安倍選舉大勝在即，政策仍未明朗

TOKYO — Despite low voter turnout, the governing party of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was heading toward a landslide victory in parliamentary elections on Sunday that would give Mr. Abe a chance to remain Japan’s leader for several more years.

東京——盡管投票率較低，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的執(zhí)政黨在周日舉行的議會(huì)選舉中可能會(huì)獲得壓倒性的勝利，讓安倍有機(jī)會(huì)在未來(lái)幾年繼續(xù)擔(dān)任日本首相。

The question, political analysts say, is what Mr. Abe will do with his renewed mandate.

政治分析人士表示，問(wèn)題是安倍晉三贏得連任后，會(huì)做些什么。

When the prime minister called the snap elections last month, he proclaimed them a referendum on his economic-revival policies, known as Abenomics. The policies have appeared to be losing steam recently after initially lifting the long-stagnant economy when Mr. Abe took office two years ago.

上個(gè)月要求提前選舉時(shí)，安倍晉三宣布就其經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇政策——所謂“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”——進(jìn)行公投。安倍晉三兩年前開(kāi)始執(zhí)政時(shí)，此類(lèi)政策提振了長(zhǎng)期停滯不前的經(jīng)濟(jì)，但這種政策最近似乎失去了動(dòng)力。

During the elections, however, he remained vague on what he would do to breathe new life into Abenomics — policies that have so far amounted to little more than pressing the central bank to flood the economy with cash.

但在選舉期間，安倍晉三對(duì)他將采取什么舉措賦予安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)生機(jī)依然含混其詞，到目前為止，除了迫使央行向市場(chǎng)注入大量現(xiàn)金，沒(méi)有什么別的舉措。

Economists have called on Mr. Abe to follow through with promised changes to open Japan’s still-protected markets to greater competition — such as by making it easier for young Japanese to create start-ups — and to more trade and foreign investment.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾呼吁安倍晉三遵守承諾，進(jìn)行改革，開(kāi)放仍然受到保護(hù)的市場(chǎng)，增加競(jìng)爭(zhēng)——比如方便日本年輕人創(chuàng)業(yè)，促進(jìn)貿(mào)易及外國(guó)投資。

The promised changes, however, will require Mr. Abe to challenge many of the vested interest groups that supported him during this elections, like the powerful national farming cooperatives.

但要想兌現(xiàn)改革承諾，安倍晉三需要挑戰(zhàn)很多在此次選舉中支持他的既得利益集團(tuán)，比如權(quán)勢(shì)強(qiáng)大的全國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)協(xié)同組合聯(lián)合會(huì)。

At the same time, political analysts have also been speculating on what the conservative Mr. Abe may attempt outside the economic realm, something about which he said even less during the elections. With his governing party now under no foreseeable legal obligation to call elections for another four years, analysts said, Mr. Abe may use that time to try to pass less-popular changes, such as expanding the role of his nation’s military or promoting more positive portrayals of Japan’s World War II-era history.

與此同時(shí)，政治分析家還在推測(cè)，作為保守派的安倍晉三在經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域外會(huì)采取什么舉措，他在選舉期間對(duì)此談得更少。分析人士表示，由于安倍晉三領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的執(zhí)政黨目前沒(méi)有法律義務(wù)，要求進(jìn)行下一任期的選舉，安倍晉三可能會(huì)利用這段時(shí)間，設(shè)法通過(guò)不太受歡迎的改革，比如擴(kuò)大該國(guó)軍隊(duì)的作用，或?qū)θ毡驹诙?zhàn)時(shí)期的歷史進(jìn)行更加正面的描繪。

“Now that he was won such a big victory, Prime Minister Abe has given no clear message on what will he try to accomplish with it," said Naoto Nonaka, a political expert at Gakushuin University in Tokyo. “Despite the rhetoric about Abenomics, his main goal seemed to be securing his own political position.”

“安倍晉三已經(jīng)大獲全勝，但他沒(méi)有明確表示獲勝后會(huì)努力達(dá)到什么目標(biāo)，”東京學(xué)習(xí)院大學(xué)(Gakushuin University)政治專家野中尚人(Naoto Nonaka)說(shuō)。“盡管安倍晉三放出豪言壯語(yǔ)，推行安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，但他的主要目標(biāo)好像是確保自己的政治地位。”

If so, Mr. Abe appears to have succeeded. While votes are still being counted, the prime minister’s Liberal Democratic Party has won 290 of the 475 seats up for grabs in the powerful Lower House, with two seats still undecided, according to Japan’s public broadcaster NHK. The governing party appears to be on course to win slightly fewer than its pre-election total of 295 seats, but it will still hold a sizable majority in the chamber.

如果是這樣的話，安倍晉三似乎已經(jīng)成功。據(jù)日本公共電視廣播公司NHK透露，雖然投票結(jié)果仍在統(tǒng)計(jì)當(dāng)中，安倍晉三領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)已經(jīng)贏得了475個(gè)席位中的290個(gè)，即將掌管眾議院(Lower House)，但還有兩個(gè)席位的情況尚不明朗。執(zhí)政黨的成績(jī)看起來(lái)會(huì)略低于選前所擁有的295個(gè)席位，但仍將在眾議院保持相當(dāng)大的多數(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

After the size of the victory became apparent, a smiling Mr. Abe appeared before television cameras at the Tokyo headquarters of his party to affix red roses to the names of victorious Liberal Democratic candidates. He said the victory was a call from voters to continue with his Abenomics policies to revitalize Japan, the world’s third-largest economy after the United States and China.

在大幅勝出的跡象變得明顯之后，安倍晉三面帶微笑地出現(xiàn)在電視攝像機(jī)前，在該黨位于東京的總部給獲勝的自民黨候選人的名字上點(diǎn)綴上紅玫瑰。他表示，此次勝利表明選民希望能繼續(xù)通過(guò)實(shí)施他的安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)來(lái)振興日本。日本是僅次于美國(guó)和中國(guó)的第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

He also seemed to recognize that there was growing discontent with his policies, which have bolstered the stock market but have yet to increase the real incomes of working Japanese.

他似乎也意識(shí)到，人們對(duì)他的政策越來(lái)越不滿。他的政策雖然提振了股市，但還沒(méi)有提高日本工作者的實(shí)際收入。

“Abenomics is still unfinished,” Mr. Abe said on live television. “We have ended the dark stagnation of two or three years ago, but there are still many people who haven’t felt the benefits yet. We need to make sure that the benefits reach them.”

“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)尚未完成，”安倍晉三在電視直播中表示。“我們已經(jīng)結(jié)束了兩三年前黑暗的停滯局面，但是仍然有很多人還沒(méi)有感受到好處。我們需要確保他們也能享受到這些好處。“

Indeed, despite the size of the apparent victory on Sunday, analysts like Mr. Nonaka said the results did not represent an enthusiastic embrace of Mr. Abe and his party by voters. Rather, they said, the biggest reason for the victory may have been the fact that opposition parties remain in disarray after their last crushing defeat at the polls, two years ago.

的確，野中尚人等分析人士表示，盡管他們周日的大勝無(wú)可置疑，但這些結(jié)果并不代表選民十分擁護(hù)安倍晉三和他的政黨。分析人士表示，相反，他們獲勝的最大原因可能是，反對(duì)黨上次在兩年前的民意調(diào)查中一敗涂地之后，目前仍然處于混亂狀態(tài)。

In street interviews, Japanese voters said that with the opposition offering no appealing alternatives, they felt no choice but to support the Liberal Democrats. In Chofu, a suburb of Tokyo, voters said that they had not felt any benefits from Abenomics, but said that they were still better than the policies of the opposition Democratic Party, which was widely seen here as mismanaging the country during a stint in power a few years ago.

日本選民在街頭采訪中表示，由于反對(duì)派沒(méi)有提供任何具有吸引力的替代方案，他們覺(jué)得別無(wú)選擇，只能支持自民黨。在東京市郊的調(diào)布，選民稱他們還沒(méi)有感受到安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)帶來(lái)的任何好處，但是表示，這些政策仍然比反對(duì)黨民主黨(Democratic Party)的政策好，這里的人廣泛認(rèn)為，幾年前曾執(zhí)政的民主黨對(duì)日本管理不善。

“Abenomics is not a key issue for me, but there are no other parties who deserve my vote,” said Masashi Shibata, 38, a public employee who said he had voted for the Liberal Democrats. “The Liberal Democratic Party is still better than the Democratic Party.”

“對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)并不是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題，但是沒(méi)有其他政黨值得獲得我的投票，”38歲的公職人員柴田雅吏(Masashi Shibata，音譯)說(shuō)。他說(shuō)自己把票投給了自民黨。“自民黨仍然比民主黨好。”

“I did not have any alternatives,” said Yuko Tanino, a 45-year-old shop worker. “The Liberal Democratic Party was the only option.”

“我沒(méi)有任何其他選擇，”45歲的店員谷野優(yōu)子(Yuko Tanino，音譯)說(shuō)。“自民黨是唯一的選擇。”

In fact, many Japanese appeared to decide not to vote at all. Early tallies showed that 52.7 percent of eligible Japanese cast votes on Sunday, the lowest turnout in postwar Japanese history.

事實(shí)上，許多日本人似乎都決定不參與投票。早期的計(jì)算顯示，周日只有52.7%有投票資格的日本人參與了投票，為日本戰(zhàn)后歷史上投票率最低的一次。