普京進(jìn)軍烏克蘭試探西方底線

普京進(jìn)軍烏克蘭試探西方底線

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin has left little doubt he intends to cripple Ukraine’s new government, forcing it to make concessions or face the de facto partition of areas populated predominantly by ethnic Russians, from the Crimea to Odessa to the industrial heartland in the east.

莫斯科——俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)最近的舉動(dòng)，幾乎讓人們毫不懷疑他打算瓦解烏克蘭的新政府，迫使后者要么做出讓步，要么接受主要由俄羅斯族聚居的區(qū)域被實(shí)際分割出去的后果，這些地區(qū)有克里米亞、敖德薩，甚至包括東部的工業(yè)中心。

That strategy has been pursued aggressively by subterfuge, propaganda and bald military threat, taking aim as much at the United States and its allies in Europe as Ukraine itself. The pivotal question now for Kiev and Western capitals, is how boldly Mr. Putin continues to push his agenda, risking a more heated military and diplomatic conflict.

俄羅斯正通過詭辯、宣傳，以及強(qiáng)橫的軍事威脅極力推行這一目的，其目標(biāo)既有美國(guó)，也有美國(guó)在歐洲的盟國(guó)，以及烏克蘭。對(duì)基輔和西方國(guó)家的政府而言，現(xiàn)在的關(guān)鍵問題在于，普京會(huì)以多么強(qiáng)橫的姿態(tài)繼續(xù)推行自己的目標(biāo)——這可能會(huì)引發(fā)一場(chǎng)更為激烈地軍事和外交沖突。

So far, the Kremlin has shown no sign of yielding to international pressure — but it also has not taken the most provocative step yet, openly ordering Russian troops to reinforce those already in Crimea and expand its incursion into southern or eastern Ukraine.

到目前為止，克里姆林宮還沒有表現(xiàn)出會(huì)屈服于國(guó)際壓力的跡象，不過它也還沒做出挑釁性最強(qiáng)的舉動(dòng)——公開命令俄國(guó)軍隊(duì)增援已經(jīng)進(jìn)入克里米亞的軍隊(duì)，并將進(jìn)犯的范圍延伸到烏克蘭南部或東部。

Asked on Sunday about President Obama’s suspension of preparations to attend the Group of 8 summit scheduled for June in Sochi — along with Canada, France and Britain — Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, replied cuttingly and dismissively. “It’s not a minus for Russia,” he said. “It will be a minus for the G-8.”

“八國(guó)集團(tuán)”(G8)峰會(huì)定于6月在俄羅斯索契舉行，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)中止了參會(huì)的準(zhǔn)備工作，加拿大、法國(guó)和英國(guó)也做出了同樣的姿態(tài)。周日在被問及此事時(shí)，普京的發(fā)言人德米特里·S·佩斯科夫(Dmitri S. Peskov)不以為意地干脆做答，“這不是俄羅斯的損失，是G8的損失。”

Mr. Putin has yet to make public remarks on the crisis in Ukraine, leaving his ultimate goals uncertain and unpredictable. Yet with a strategy aimed at blunting the impact of a popular uprising that sought to push the country away from Russia and deepen ties with Europe, Mr. Putin has already left the fledgling government disorganized, discredited and forced to compromise on terms that would keep the country firmly within Russia’s sphere of influence, especially regarding the Crimea peninsula.

普京還沒有就烏克蘭的危機(jī)公開發(fā)表評(píng)論，這讓他的最終目標(biāo)顯得不確定又難以預(yù)測(cè)。然而面對(duì)著旨在推動(dòng)烏克蘭遠(yuǎn)離俄羅斯，加深與歐洲聯(lián)系的大規(guī)模示威，普京的策略是挫傷示威的影響。在這種策略之下，普京已經(jīng)讓羽翼未豐的新政府陷入了組織失靈、無法取信與人的境地，迫使它做出妥協(xié)，讓烏克蘭完完全全地保留在俄羅斯的勢(shì)力范圍內(nèi)，尤其是對(duì)于克里米亞半島。

The Kremlin’s pledge to protect compatriots in Ukraine from suppression of a Western-minded majority mirrors Russia’s role in other disputed territories of the former Soviet republics over the years, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Those two breakaway regions of Georgia survived in a diplomatic limbo after the collapse of the Soviet Union with overt and covert Kremlin pressure until war erupted in 2008 and Russia routed ill-prepared Georgian troops.

克里姆林宮宣誓要保護(hù)位于烏克蘭的同胞免于受到心向西方的多數(shù)派壓制，這種表態(tài)與俄羅斯在其他前蘇聯(lián)加盟共和國(guó)的領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)議中扮演的角色極為相似，如阿布哈茲和南奧塞梯。這兩個(gè)從格魯吉亞分裂出來的區(qū)域在蘇聯(lián)解體后，外交地位一直尷尬，也一直受到克里姆林宮或明或暗的壓力，直到2008年爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，俄羅斯擊潰了準(zhǔn)備不周的格魯吉亞軍隊(duì)。

Russia brushed aside strong warnings from the United States and others at the time and recognized them as independent countries — and paid little price for it in the long run. Mr. Putin appears to be calculating again that Russia is too important for other countries to respond more forcefully, despite warnings like those by Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday that the United States would consider an array of sanctions that could include freezing assets and travel of senior officials here.

當(dāng)時(shí)，俄羅斯對(duì)美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家發(fā)表的強(qiáng)烈警告置之不理，承認(rèn)這兩個(gè)地區(qū)是獨(dú)立國(guó)家，而且從長(zhǎng)期來看，幾乎沒有為其所作所為付出代價(jià)。盡管受到了一些警告，但普京似乎又在盤算著，由于俄羅斯十分重要，別國(guó)不會(huì)做出更有力的反應(yīng)。美國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)卿約翰·克里(John Kerry)周日警告說，美國(guó)會(huì)考慮采取一系列制裁措施，可能包括凍結(jié)資產(chǎn)和禁止俄羅斯高級(jí)官員前往美國(guó)。

Any escalation of Russia’s military intervention, especially if it meets resistance and bloodshed, will almost certainly rattle investors and plunge Russia’s unsteady economy into free fall. With the value of the ruble already falling, there was quick speculation of a rocky start when the stock market opens on Monday.

一旦俄羅斯的軍事干預(yù)升級(jí)，尤其是如果遭遇抵抗、發(fā)生流血的話，幾乎可以肯定會(huì)驚擾投資者，致使俄羅斯原本就不穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)受到重創(chuàng)。鑒于盧布匯率已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)貶值，人們很快就揣測(cè)，周一股市開盤時(shí)會(huì)出現(xiàn)振蕩。

For now, such calculations appear to be secondary to the fury that the toppling of Mr. Yanukovych’s government has caused inside the Kremlin. Ukraine has deep historical, social and religious connections to Russia that are often underestimated in the United States, especially. More significantly, Mr. Putin and the close circle of aides he relies on most, view the overthrow of Mr. Yanukovych as a coup orchestrated by the West to undercut Russia’s vital interests.

亞努科維奇政府被推翻在克里姆林宮內(nèi)部引發(fā)了強(qiáng)烈的憤怒，目前來看在這種盛怒之下，經(jīng)濟(jì)的得失只是次要的。烏克蘭與俄羅斯之間有著深厚的歷史、社會(huì)、宗教聯(lián)系，這一點(diǎn)常常被人低估，尤其是被美國(guó)低估。更重要的是，普京和他身邊那些最受信賴的助手，認(rèn)為亞努科維奇被推翻是西方為了削弱俄羅斯的關(guān)鍵利益而一手策劃的政變。

Sergei Utkin, the head of the Department of Strategic Assessment, part of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that the relentless anti-Americanism on state media was in the past dismissed as crude propaganda that served a transparent political purpose but appeared now to reflect the actual worldview of the Kremlin. “It’s a catastrophe for Ukraine and for Russia,” he said. “The problem is that quite a few people in Russia don’t understand the consequences. They believe the country is strong and can do whatever it wants to do.”

俄羅斯科學(xué)院(Russian Academy of Sciences)下屬的戰(zhàn)略評(píng)估部(Department of Strategic Assessment)負(fù)責(zé)人謝爾蓋·烏特金(Sergei Utkin)說，過去官方媒體上鋪天蓋地的反美論調(diào)都被當(dāng)做拙劣的宣傳，顯然是服務(wù)于政治目的，但現(xiàn)在，似乎的確反映了克里姆林宮的世界觀。“這對(duì)烏克蘭和俄羅斯都是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難，”他說。“問題是在俄羅斯，有相當(dāng)一部分人不理解它的后果。他們認(rèn)為國(guó)家很強(qiáng)大，想做什么就可以做什么。”

How Mr. Putin perceives these events remains central to what happens next, experts said. Does he believe he has already succeeded by making clear that Russia has the will and the means to force its agenda in Ukraine? Or does he feel the job is only half done and that having stoked Russian nationalism, he has no choice but to plow ahead?

專家表示，普京對(duì)這些事件持何種看法，仍然對(duì)事態(tài)下一步的發(fā)展具有重要的影響。他是不是相信，通過展示俄羅斯有意愿也有能力在烏克蘭推行自己的目的，他已經(jīng)取得了成功?又或者他認(rèn)為任務(wù)只是完成了一半，而且既然已經(jīng)鼓動(dòng)起了俄羅斯民族主義情緒，他只能向前推進(jìn)?

The deployment of Russian troops across Crimea — which Mr. Peskov refused to acknowledge — has already effectively severed Crimea from Ukrainian control, even as it provoked tense confrontation with Ukrainian troops at some bases. It allowed a new regional leader to plead for Russia’s protection and gave the Kremlin the pretense to oblige.

在克里米亞全境部署的俄羅斯部隊(duì)，實(shí)際上已經(jīng)切斷了烏克蘭對(duì)克里米亞的控制。盡管俄軍的部署已經(jīng)在某些基地激起了與烏克蘭部隊(duì)的緊張對(duì)峙，但佩斯科夫仍然拒絕承認(rèn)俄軍在克里米亞的行動(dòng)。俄軍的舉動(dòng)促使一位新任地區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人要求俄羅斯給予保護(hù)，并且向克里姆林宮提供了介入的口實(shí)。

Ethnic Russian supporters — abetted by Russia’s secret services, according to Ukrainian and foreign officials — are now mounting demonstrations in other cities, including Kharkiv and Donetsk, that could lead to similar calls for Russian intervention.

烏克蘭及外國(guó)官員表示，俄羅斯族支持者在俄羅斯秘密機(jī)關(guān)的唆使下，現(xiàn)在正在其他城市舉行示威，包括哈爾科夫和頓涅茨克，這些示威也可能會(huì)引起呼吁俄羅斯干預(yù)的類似呼聲。

The unanimous vote by Russia’s upper house of Parliament on Saturday night to authorize an intervention, after a debate that vilified the United States in ways reminiscent of the darkest periods of the Cold War, took place after the first Russian reinforcements had already begun arriving, according to Ukrainian and other Western officials. The vote nevertheless gave Mr. Putin a strong hand to play, threatening a much larger conventional military operation to protect “citizens and compatriots” in Ukraine, as Mr. Putin said in telephone conversations with Mr. Obama and the United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, according to the Kremlin.

周六夜間俄羅斯議會(huì)上議院一致同意授權(quán)采取干預(yù)，表決前的辯論中詆毀美國(guó)的語氣讓人想起了冷戰(zhàn)中最黑暗的時(shí)期。烏克蘭及其他西方國(guó)家官員表示，表決前俄羅斯的第一批增援部隊(duì)已經(jīng)開始抵達(dá)。不過，表決還是向普京賦予了更有力的資源，使他可以發(fā)起更大規(guī)模的常規(guī)軍事行動(dòng)，從而在烏克蘭保衛(wèi)“公民和同胞”?？死锬妨謱m稱，普京在與奧巴馬和聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書長(zhǎng)通電話時(shí)用過這樣的說法。

Mr. Peskov said that Mr. Putin had not yet ordered the operation but now had “the full array of options available to him” if the crisis worsened. He emphasized that Russia supported a unified Ukraine, but also argued that the country’s new leaders had violated the agreement brokered by the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Poland to establish a unity government that would leave Mr. Yanukovych in place as president until new elections in December.

佩斯科夫說，普京并沒有下令采取行動(dòng)，不過一旦現(xiàn)在危機(jī)惡化，“他手邊所有的選項(xiàng)都可以使用”。他強(qiáng)調(diào)，俄羅斯支持統(tǒng)一的烏克蘭，但也表示該國(guó)新領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人違反了在德國(guó)、法國(guó)、波蘭外長(zhǎng)斡旋下達(dá)成的協(xié)議，即建立一個(gè)聯(lián)合政府，由亞努科維奇擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)，直至12月舉行新的選舉。

He suggested a diplomatic resolution would begin with a return to the terms of those agreements. That would mean the dismissal of the new interim government that the United States and others have already endorsed and the return of Mr. Yanukovych, who appeared on Friday at a surreal news conference in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don after dropping out of sight for a week. “He may be the last man to present himself for the presidency,” Mr. Peskov said, reflecting the greatly diminished reputation of Mr. Yanukovych in Moscow now, “but he is the legitimate one.”

他提到，回歸那些協(xié)議的條款之后，才可以通過外交方式解決。但那就意味著解散美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家已經(jīng)表示過支持的新臨時(shí)政府，并且讓亞努科維奇重新?lián)慰偨y(tǒng)。上周五，亞努科維奇在去向不明一周之后，在俄羅斯城市頓河畔羅斯托夫舉行了一場(chǎng)離奇的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)。佩斯科夫說，“他可能是最不適合角逐總統(tǒng)職位的人，”這反映出亞努科維奇在莫斯科的聲望已經(jīng)大大受損。“但他才是合法的那一個(gè)。”