科學(xué)家警告稱，全球肉類消費(fèi)將達(dá)到“峰值”

科學(xué)家警告稱，全球肉類消費(fèi)將達(dá)到“峰值”

When it comes to meat, the world's plate is more than half full. In fact, scientists say it's fast approaching a tipping point.

說到肉，全世界的盤子里有一半多都是肉。事實(shí)上，科學(xué)家說它正迅速接近一個(gè)臨界點(diǎn)。

In a letter published in the The Lancet Planetary Health Journal, 50 international scientists and environmental experts warn that the world will reach "peak meat" by 2030.

50位國際科學(xué)家和環(huán)境專家在《柳葉刀》雜志上發(fā)表的一封信中警告說，到2030年，全球肉類消費(fèi)將達(dá)到“峰值”。

All but the poorest countries need to dramatically restructure their agricultural industries, the scientists note. (Photo: Aumsama/Shutterstock)

If the livestock industry doesn't stop growing by then, we literally risk eating ourselves out of house and home.

如果畜牧業(yè)到那時(shí)還沒有停止增長，我們將面臨在戶外和家中吞食自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

The scientists note that the world needs to keep global temperatures within a "safe" limit of between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To get there, an estimated 720 billion tonnes of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere.

科學(xué)家們指出，世界需要將全球溫度保持在“安全”范圍內(nèi)，即比工業(yè)化前的水平高出1.5至2攝氏度。要達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo)，估計(jì)需要從大氣中清除7200億噸二氧化碳。

And livestock production — a major source of emissions — will have to adopt a crash diet.

而作為主要排放來源的畜牧業(yè)，將不得不采取速成飲食。

"If the livestock sector were to continue with business as usual, this sector alone would account for 49 percent of the emissions budget for 1·5°C by 2030, requiring other sectors to reduce emissions beyond a realistic or planned level."

“如果畜牧業(yè)一如既往地發(fā)展下去，到2030年，僅畜牧業(yè)就將占1·5°C排放預(yù)算的49%，這就要求其他行業(yè)削減超出實(shí)際或計(jì)劃水平的排放。”

While it's long been known that meat consumption isn't sustainable — at least not when there are 7 billion mouths to feed on this planet — the world's appetite continues to grow. And meat's environmental footprint is growing along with it.

雖然人們早就知道肉類消費(fèi)是不可持續(xù)的——至少在地球上有70億張嘴要吃的時(shí)候是這樣——但世界的胃口還在繼續(xù)增長。肉類的環(huán)境足跡也隨之增長。

That means increasing amounts of land are being taken up by livestock, removing natural carbon sinks like forests and vegetation along the way. Those carbon sinks play a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

這意味著越來越多的土地被牲畜占用，自然碳匯也隨之消失，比如沿途的森林和植被。這些碳匯在吸收大氣中的二氧化碳方面起著至關(guān)重要的作用。

In the letter, scientists say all but the poorest counties need to curb their meat enthusiasm, and set a time frame to halt the industry's growth. Specifically, governments need to restructure their meat industries, zeroing in on the biggest producers of emissions and occupiers of land.

在信中，科學(xué)家們表示，除了最貧困的縣外，其他所有縣都需要抑制對肉類的熱情，并設(shè)定一個(gè)時(shí)間框架來阻止該行業(yè)的增長。具體來說，政府需要重組他們的肉類產(chǎn)業(yè)，瞄準(zhǔn)最大的排放者和土地占用者。

Those producers would need hard targets in place for reducing growth. Change doesn't have to be so painful for those producers, but only if they begin diversifying their food production.

這些生產(chǎn)商需要制定降低增長的硬性目標(biāo)。對這些生產(chǎn)商來說，改變不一定是那么痛苦，但前提是他們開始實(shí)現(xiàn)食品生產(chǎn)的多樣化。

Livestock, they note, could be gradually replaced with "foods that simultaneously minimise environmental burdens and maximise public health benefits."

他們指出，家畜可以逐漸被“同時(shí)最小化環(huán)境負(fù)擔(dān)和最大化公共健康效益的食物”所取代。

In other words, crops like pulses, grains, fruits and vegetables. Even nuts, which require intensive amounts of water to grow, take less of a toll on the planet than red meat production.

換句話說，像豆類、谷物、水果和蔬菜這樣的農(nóng)作物。即使是生長需要大量水的堅(jiān)果，對地球造成的危害也不及紅肉生產(chǎn)。

"We're suggesting agriculture transitions to optimal systems, and that's plant-based," Helen Harwatt, an environmental social scientist at Harvard Law School and lead author of the letter, tells CNN.

“我們建議農(nóng)業(yè)向最優(yōu)系統(tǒng)過渡，這是基于植物的，”哈佛法學(xué)院環(huán)境社會(huì)科學(xué)家、這封信的主要作者海倫·哈瓦特告訴CNN。

The production of dairy products is responsible for about 3.6 percent of planet-warming emissions each year. (Photo: Africa Studio/Shutterstock)

It wouldn't be the first time scientists have called on rich and middle-income countries to slow down meat production for the sake of the planet. In fact, earlier this year, a United Nations panel on climate change warned of "irreversible impacts on some ecosystems."

這并不是科學(xué)家們第一次呼吁富裕國家和中等收入國家為了保護(hù)地球而減少肉類生產(chǎn)。事實(shí)上，今年早些時(shí)候，一個(gè)聯(lián)合國氣候變化專門小組就“對某些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)不可逆轉(zhuǎn)的影響”發(fā)出了警告。

Meat producers, however, aren't so sure.

然而，肉類生產(chǎn)商就不那么肯定了。

"To say that cutting livestock numbers everywhere is the most efficient way of reducing emissions massively overgeneralises a situation that differs significantly across the world, and can hinder the countries that are practicing sustainable farming methods and have an ambition to do more," Stuart Roberts of the National Farmers' Union of England and Wales, explains to CNN in a statement.

“說在世界各地減少牲畜數(shù)量是減少排放的最有效的方法，這一情況在世界各地有很大的不同，而且可能阻礙一些國家正在采取可持續(xù)的耕作方法，并有更多的雄心。“英格蘭和威爾士全國農(nóng)民聯(lián)盟的斯圖爾特·羅伯茨在一份聲明中向CNN解釋道。

Not surprisingly, Roberts paints a much rosier picture of the livestock industry's impact on climate change.

毫不奇怪，羅伯茨對畜牧業(yè)對氣候變化的影響描繪了一幅更加樂觀的圖景。

"Grazing cattle is the most sustainable way to use land for food production which is unsuitable for growing any other crop," he notes. "By using our grasslands in this way we can sequester carbon at the same time as turning inedible grass into a highly nutritious protein which our growing population can enjoy."

他指出:“在不適合種植其他作物的土地上放牧是最可持續(xù)的糧食生產(chǎn)方式。”“通過這種方式利用我們的草地，我們可以在將不可食用的草轉(zhuǎn)化為我們不斷增長的人口可以享用的高營養(yǎng)蛋白質(zhì)的同時(shí)，吸收碳。”