經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，免除學(xué)生債務(wù)將提振經(jīng)濟(jì)

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，免除學(xué)生債務(wù)將提振經(jīng)濟(jì)

Presidential hopefuls Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders want to tear up your student loans and set you financially free. That's popular among voters – especially those struggling to pay off this debt.

總統(tǒng)候選人伊麗莎白·沃倫和伯尼·桑德斯希望取消你的學(xué)生貸款，讓你在經(jīng)濟(jì)上自由。這在選民中很受歡迎，尤其是那些努力償還債務(wù)的人。

Other Democratic candidates have more modest plans. But economists say the dramatic proposals from Sanders and Warren to free millions of Americans from the burden of student debt could boost the economy in significant ways and help combat income inequality.

其他民主黨候選人的計(jì)劃則更為溫和。但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，桑德斯和沃倫提出的讓數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人擺脫學(xué)生債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的引人注目的提議，可能在很大程度上提振經(jīng)濟(jì)，并有助于消除收入不平等。

Warren would forgive up to $50,000 for most people. Sanders would go further with total loan forgiveness. But with these plans having a price tag north of $1 trillion, such legislation would come with plenty of risks.

沃倫對(duì)大多數(shù)人的免除高達(dá)5萬(wàn)美元。桑德斯將進(jìn)一步全面免除貸款。但是由于這些計(jì)劃的花費(fèi)超過(guò)了1萬(wàn)億美元，這樣的立法會(huì)帶來(lái)很多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

The reason debt forgiveness could have a big impact on the overall economy is that a generation of Americans is making major life decisions differently because of student loans.

債務(wù)減免可能對(duì)整體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響的原因是，由于學(xué)生貸款，一代美國(guó)人正在以不同的方式做出人生重大決定。

Greenwood works for the state education agency. She's 30 years old and makes $63,000 a year. "I make probably a better salary than a lot of my peers."

格林伍德在州教育機(jī)構(gòu)工作。她今年30歲，年收入6.3萬(wàn)美元。“我的薪水可能比很多同事都高。”

But after paying for college and grad school, Greenwood owes $96,000 in student loans. And she says that's got her and her partner feeling frozen. "Yeah. It's always, we're interested in having kids, but just cost of living and all our other bills and then the student loans." She says it makes starting a family feel impossible.

但在支付了大學(xué)和研究生院學(xué)費(fèi)之后，格林伍德還欠著9.6萬(wàn)美元的學(xué)生貸款。她說(shuō)，這讓她和她的伴侶感覺(jué)很僵。“是的。我們總是想要孩子，但是生活成本和其他賬單，還有學(xué)生貸款。”她說(shuō)這讓她覺(jué)得成家是不可能的。

So if people like Greenwood suddenly had this millstone of debt lifted from their necks, it stands to reason that would unleash pent-up desires and spending that would be good for the economy. A lot more people would have kids, or start businesses, or buy houses.

因此，如果像格林伍德這樣的人突然擺脫了沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，釋放出被壓抑的欲望和支出，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)是有好處的，這是合乎情理的。更多的人會(huì)有孩子，或創(chuàng)業(yè)，或買房。

"In the short term, it would be very positive for the housing market," says Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist. He says his group's surveys show that student debt has people delaying homeownership by five to seven years.

全美房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人協(xié)會(huì)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家勞倫斯•云表示:“短期而言，這將對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)非常有利。”他說(shuō)，他的小組的調(diào)查顯示，學(xué)生貸款使人們推遲了5到7年才有住房。

He's not endorsing any particular plan, but he estimates that broad loan forgiveness would push up the number of home sales quite a bit. "Home sales could be, say, 300,000 higher annually if people were not saddled with large student debt." Yun says that would be "a boost to the housing sector as well as the economy."

他并不支持任何具體的計(jì)劃，但他估計(jì)，廣泛的貸款減免將大大推高房屋銷量。“比如說(shuō)，如果人們沒(méi)有背上沉重的學(xué)生債務(wù)，房屋銷量每年可能會(huì)增加30萬(wàn)套。”他說(shuō)，這將“提振房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)”。

The effects would go beyond the housing market. William Foster is a vice president with Moody's, which just did a report on student debt forgiveness. "There've been some estimates that U.S. real GDP could be boosted on average by $86 billion to $108 billion per year," which is "quite a bit," he says. "That's if you had total loan forgiveness." Foster says it wouldn't have to be total forgiveness to see significant results. And he says it could also help address rising income inequality.

其影響將超出房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。威廉·福斯特是穆迪公司的副總裁，該公司剛剛發(fā)布了一份關(guān)于學(xué)生債務(wù)減免的報(bào)告。他說(shuō):“有人估計(jì)，美國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值每年平均可以增加860億美元到1080億美元。”福斯特說(shuō)，不一定要完全原諒才能看到顯著的結(jié)果。他還說(shuō)，這也有助于解決收入不平等加劇的問(wèn)題。

And there are other issues. Many people would oppose a giveaway to, say, lawyers and doctors who stand to make a lot of money in the future but happen to have a lot of student loan debt. And you probably wouldn't want to tax the working class to pay for higher-income college graduates' loan forgiveness.

還有其他問(wèn)題。許多人會(huì)反對(duì)把錢送給律師和醫(yī)生之類的人，這些人將來(lái)可能賺很多錢，但碰巧背負(fù)著大量的學(xué)生貸款債務(wù)。你可能不想向工人階級(jí)征稅來(lái)支付高收入大學(xué)畢業(yè)生減免的貸款。

That's why presidential candidates are proposing to tax the wealthy to pay for it — which, by the way, Foster says would also create less drag on the economy from the taxes because wealthy people's spending patterns are less influenced by such changes than people in lower income brackets.

這就是為什么總統(tǒng)候選人提議向富人征稅來(lái)支付這筆費(fèi)用——順便說(shuō)一句，福斯特說(shuō)這也會(huì)減少稅收對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拖累，因?yàn)楦蝗说南M(fèi)模式受這些變化的影響比低收入階層的人要小。