嬰兒潮一代將面臨另一個(gè)問題:嬰兒數(shù)量減少

嬰兒潮一代將面臨另一個(gè)問題:嬰兒數(shù)量減少

Maine has the oldest population in the USA, with a median age of 44.6 years, significantly older than the 38.1 median age for the country. According to Jeff Stein in The Washington Post, the state is being "hammered by two slow-moving demographic forces — the growth of the retirement population and a simultaneous decline in young workers."

緬因州是美國(guó)人口年齡最大的州，平均年齡為44.6歲，明顯高于全國(guó)38.1歲的平均年齡。據(jù)《華盛頓郵報(bào)》的杰夫·斯坦稱，該州正受到“兩股緩慢變化的人口力量的沖擊——退休人口的增長(zhǎng)和年輕工人數(shù)量的同時(shí)下降。”

With an aging population, who's going to pull in all the lobsters in Maine? (Photo: Christine Norton Photo/Shutterstock)

Maine recently became the first state to reach the "super-aged" threshold where 20 percent of the population is over 65; the whole country will reach that point in 2030. Health care is in crisis; finding in-home caregivers is almost impossible. Baby boomer kids are run off their feet taking care of their elderly parents. Nursing homes are closing due to lack of staff.

緬因州最近成為第一個(gè)達(dá)到“超高齡”門檻的州，超過65歲的人口占總?cè)丝诘?0%;到2030年，中國(guó)將達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)。醫(yī)療保健處于危機(jī)之中;找到家庭護(hù)理人員幾乎是不可能的。嬰兒潮一代的孩子照顧年邁的父母忙得不可開交。由于缺乏工作人員，養(yǎng)老院正在關(guān)閉。

No kidding. Bruce Chernof, who wrote a report about this for Congress, says "left unaddressed, this will be catastrophic. We as a country have not wrapped our heads around what it's going to take to pay for long-term care."

沒有開玩笑。布魯斯·切爾諾夫(Bruce Chernof)為國(guó)會(huì)撰寫了一份關(guān)于此事的報(bào)告。作為一個(gè)國(guó)家，我們還沒有考慮如何支付長(zhǎng)期醫(yī)療費(fèi)用。”

Here comes the Baby Bust

嬰兒數(shù)量減少時(shí)代來了

Those millennial kids aren't having any kids! (Photo: Pew Research Center)

The Economist notes that young people like to move to cities where the good jobs are (part of the problem in Maine) and where housing is very expensive and raising kids is very costly. Church attendance is also declining, and "churches tend to be in favour of children — more so than the other places where people hang out on the weekend, such as gyms and bars."

《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》指出，年輕人喜歡搬到有好工作的城市(緬因州問題的一部分)，那里的住房非常昂貴，撫養(yǎng)孩子非常昂貴。教堂的上座率也在下降，而且“教堂傾向于支持兒童——比人們周末去健身房和酒吧等其他地方更受歡迎。”

The baby bust is, in fact, a huge contributor to the problem of dealing with the baby boom; a shrinking population means a shrinking tax base, at a time when health care costs will be going through the roof. According to the Week, "American spending on health care is expected to rise from about $4 trillion a year to $6 trillion, or 19.4 percent of GDP, by 2027."

實(shí)際上，嬰兒數(shù)量減少是應(yīng)對(duì)嬰兒潮問題的一個(gè)重要因素;人口的減少意味著稅基的減少，而此時(shí)的醫(yī)療成本將會(huì)飛漲。據(jù)本周報(bào)道，“到2027年，美國(guó)在醫(yī)療保健上的支出預(yù)計(jì)將從每年4萬億美元增加到6萬億美元，占GDP的19.4%。”

My late mom and her caregiver at our house for a party. (Photo: Lloyd Alter)

This is a problem in developed countries all over the world, and countries are taking different approaches to the problem. Japan is developing robots to take care of older people; my late mom and all her rich friends in Toronto had flying squads of Filipino caregivers, thanks to a special focused immigration program set up by the Canadian government that lets the caregivers eventually get citizenship once they have worked for a number of years.

這在世界上的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家都是一個(gè)問題，各國(guó)對(duì)這個(gè)問題采取了不同的方法。日本正在開發(fā)機(jī)器人來照顧老年人;我已故的母親和她在多倫多所有富有的朋友都有菲律賓護(hù)理員的飛行隊(duì)，這要感謝加拿大政府設(shè)立的一個(gè)特別關(guān)注移民的項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目允許護(hù)理員在工作多年后最終獲得公民身份。

Bruce Chernof was right; nobody is wrapping their heads around this problem. We have the baby boomers getting older; we have a baby bust, so nobody will be around to take care of them or generate revenue to pay for their care. We have governments that hate raising taxes and admitting immigrants, when two things we're going to need are lots of money and people, not something anyone wants to talk about these days.

布魯斯·切諾夫是對(duì)的;沒有人在這個(gè)問題上絞盡腦汁。嬰兒潮時(shí)期出生的人變老了;我們有一個(gè)嬰兒潮，所以沒有人會(huì)照顧他們，或者產(chǎn)生收入來支付照顧他們的費(fèi)用。我們的政府討厭增稅和接納移民，而我們需要的兩樣?xùn)|西是大量的資金和人才，而不是現(xiàn)在任何人都想談?wù)摰臇|西。