再見(jiàn)，山姆大叔

All over the world there are countries that rely on the protection and leadership of the US. But dependable old Uncle Sam seems to have gone on a long vacation — and his malicious twin, Uncle Donald, has taken up residence in the White House. The result is confusion and soul-searching among some of America’s closest allies.

依賴美國(guó)保護(hù)和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的國(guó)家遍布世界各地。但可靠的山姆大叔(Uncle Sam)似乎度長(zhǎng)假去了——而他邪惡的孿生兄弟“唐納德大叔”(Uncle Donald)已在白宮住了下來(lái)。結(jié)果是，一些與美國(guó)關(guān)系最緊密的盟友產(chǎn)生了困惑、開(kāi)始了反思。

Three countries — Britain, Australia and Japan — exemplify the problem. All three pride themselves on their close relationships with the US. All three are currently led by centre-right governments that would normally expect good relations with a Republican president.

三個(gè)國(guó)家——英國(guó)、澳大利亞和日本——最能說(shuō)明這一問(wèn)題。三國(guó)都為本國(guó)與美國(guó)的緊密關(guān)系感到自豪。三國(guó)目前都由通常與共和黨美國(guó)總統(tǒng)相處融洽的中右翼政府領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。

And yet all three have seen their prime ministers humiliated or put in excruciatingly awkward situations by Mr Trump. The most recent example came with the president’s retweeting of anti-Muslim videos from a far-right group in Britain. The result has been an unseemly, unprecedented and wholly unnecessary row between the US president and the British prime minister. Mr Trump’s much-deferred “state visit” to Britain is now disappearing into the dim-and-distant future.

然而，三國(guó)的首相或總理都受到了唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的羞辱或是被他置于極為尷尬的境地。最近的事例是，特朗普在Twitter上轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)了英國(guó)一個(gè)極右組織發(fā)布的反穆斯林視頻。結(jié)果在美國(guó)總統(tǒng)與英國(guó)首相之間引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)不顧體面、前所未有且完全沒(méi)有必要的口水仗。特朗普推遲已久的對(duì)英“國(guó)事訪問(wèn)”如今變得遙遙無(wú)期。

Theresa May is simply going through the kind of bruising encounter, already experienced by Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian prime minister. His first phone call with Mr Trump degenerated into a row after Mr Turnbull asked the president to uphold a US-Australian agreement on resettling refugees.

特里薩•梅(Theresa May)只是在經(jīng)歷澳大利亞總理馬爾科姆•特恩布爾(Malcolm Turnbull)早已經(jīng)歷過(guò)的那種痛苦遭遇。特恩布爾與特朗普的第一次通話，在他要求特朗普維持一份幫助難民定居的美澳協(xié)議之后，也演變成了一場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)吵。

Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, has skilfully avoided embarrassing showdowns with Mr Trump. But no amount of bonhomie on the golf course can disguise the fact that Mr Trump’s election led to a calamity for the Abe government. On his very first day in office, the new US president repudiated the Trans-Pacific Partnership — a multi-nation trade deal that Mr Abe had made the centrepiece of his economic and security policies.

日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)巧妙地避免了與特朗普撕破臉的尷尬場(chǎng)面。但高爾夫球場(chǎng)上再多的友情也無(wú)法掩飾特朗普當(dāng)選為安倍政府帶來(lái)災(zāi)難的事實(shí)。上任首日，特朗普就宣布退出《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡(jiǎn)稱TPP)——一項(xiàng)被安倍置于他經(jīng)濟(jì)和安全政策核心的多國(guó)貿(mào)易協(xié)議。

Despite these humiliating rebuffs, the British, Australian and Japanese governments have all gritted their teeth — and attempted to humour Uncle Donald. All three countries face challenges that make them more anxious than ever to cling to the US. The rise of China has made both Japan and Australia determined to bolster the American presence in the Pacific. Britain is struggling with Brexit and dreams of a new trade deal with the US.

盡管遭遇侮辱性冷遇，英澳日三國(guó)政府都還是打掉門牙往肚子里咽——并嘗試遷就“唐納德大叔”。三國(guó)面臨的種種挑戰(zhàn)使它們比以往任何時(shí)候都更急于抱住美國(guó)。中國(guó)的崛起使得日澳兩國(guó)都決心支持美國(guó)在太平洋地區(qū)的存在。英國(guó)正艱難地應(yīng)對(duì)退歐事宜，且渴望與美國(guó)達(dá)成新的貿(mào)易協(xié)議。

Dependence on the US is also deeply embedded in the foreign and security policies of the three nations. So they are all holding on to the hope that Uncle Donald’s advisers will keep America roughly on course, until reliable old Uncle Sam reappears once again.

對(duì)美國(guó)的依賴也深深植根于這三國(guó)的外交和安全政策之中。因此，它們都繼續(xù)寄望于“唐納德大叔”的顧問(wèn)們能讓美國(guó)大致保持不偏航，直至可靠的老山姆大叔再次出現(xiàn)。

The pliant attitudes of Britain, Japan and Australia might lead Mr Trump to conclude that dishing out the occasional humiliation to close allies is a cost-free exercise. But that would be excessively complacent. For while official policy remains unaltered, Britain, Japan and Australia are all now having public debates about their relationship with the US that highlight the possibility of radical changes in the future.

英日澳三國(guó)逆來(lái)順受的態(tài)度可能會(huì)讓特朗普認(rèn)定，讓親密盟友偶爾蒙受羞辱是一種無(wú)成本行為。但這樣想就太自我感覺(jué)良好了。因?yàn)殡m然官方政策未變，但英日澳國(guó)內(nèi)如今都出現(xiàn)了圍繞與美國(guó)的關(guān)系的公開(kāi)辯論，突顯出未來(lái)發(fā)生激進(jìn)變化的可能性。

The Turnbull government has just issued a white paper which asserts that “Australia will continue strongly to support US global leadership”. But some prominent Australians argue that basing their nation’s foreign policy on an alliance with the US is not a sustainable long-term option. Hugh White, a former senior official who is now an academic, has long argued that China will displace America as the dominant power in the Pacific. Mr White believes that the election of Mr Trump is a “massive additional blow” to Australia’s traditional reliance on the US.

特恩布爾政府剛剛發(fā)布一份白皮書，宣稱“澳大利亞將繼續(xù)大力支持美國(guó)的全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”。但一些澳大利亞知名人士認(rèn)為，基于美澳聯(lián)盟制定本國(guó)的外交政策并非一項(xiàng)可持續(xù)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)選擇。澳大利亞學(xué)者、前高級(jí)官員休•懷特(Hugh White)一直稱，中國(guó)將取代美國(guó)成為太平洋地區(qū)的主導(dǎo)力量。懷特認(rèn)為，特朗普當(dāng)選讓澳大利亞對(duì)美國(guó)的傳統(tǒng)依賴遭受了“又一次沉重打擊”。

The crisis over North Korea could bring Australian doubts about Mr Trump to a head. Mr Turnbull has said that Australia would join a war on the Korean peninsula “if there is an attack on the US”. But Australian officials warn that the situation would be very different if a Korean war is initiated by a US pre-emptive strike. In that case, Australia would not fight alongside America — breaking with the precedent established in two world wars, Korea, Vietnam and Iraq.

朝鮮危機(jī)可能會(huì)讓澳大利亞民眾對(duì)特朗普的疑慮達(dá)到頂點(diǎn)。特恩布爾曾表示，“如果美國(guó)遭到攻擊”，澳大利亞將加入朝鮮半島的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。但澳大利亞官員警告稱，如果是美國(guó)先發(fā)制人的打擊導(dǎo)致朝鮮半島爆發(fā)戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，形勢(shì)將截然不同。在這種情況下，澳大利亞不會(huì)與美國(guó)并肩作戰(zhàn)——打破在兩次世界大戰(zhàn)、朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中形成的慣例。

The Korean crisis and the erratic nature of the Trump administration are also causing soul-searching in Japan. Mr Abe remains determined to hug the Americans close. But only 24 per cent of Japanese say they trust Mr Trump to “do the right thing” in world affairs — compared with 78 per cent who trusted former president Barack Obama. These plummeting levels of faith in US leadership mean that hitherto taboo ideas are entering the public debate in Japan — with the left pushing for a rapprochement with China, and the right advocating much faster rearmament.

朝鮮危機(jī)和無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)的特朗普政府也促使日本開(kāi)始反思。安倍仍然堅(jiān)定地?fù)肀绹?guó)。但只有24%的日本民眾表示，相信特朗普會(huì)在世界事務(wù)中“做正確的事”——相比之下，信任美國(guó)前總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的這個(gè)比例為78%。對(duì)美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層信心的急劇下降，意味著迄今一直為禁忌的一些想法正進(jìn)入日本的公眾辯論——左派試圖推動(dòng)與中國(guó)修好，右翼則主張更快速地重新武裝起來(lái)。

Britain’s options seem even narrower than Japan’s, because the UK is locked into longstanding relationships with the US over intelligence and nuclear weapons. But Brexit has demonstrated that the British public is willing to consider policy shifts that seem inconceivable to the establishment. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour party, has a long record of anti-Americanism — and may now find the British public much more in tune with his own deep suspicion of Washington.

英國(guó)的選擇似乎比日本還少，因?yàn)榕c美國(guó)在情報(bào)和核武器領(lǐng)域形成的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系束縛著它。但英國(guó)退歐表明，英國(guó)公眾愿意考慮在建制派看來(lái)難以想象的政策轉(zhuǎn)變。反對(duì)黨工黨(Labour party)領(lǐng)袖杰里米•科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)的反美主義由來(lái)已久，如今他或許會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，英國(guó)公眾越來(lái)越像他一樣對(duì)華盛頓抱以深刻的懷疑。

Given his disdain for US allies, Mr Trump probably does not worry too much about the views of the UK, Japan and Australia. But America’s network of alliances — such as the US-Japan security treaty, Nato and the Anzus treaty — are bedrocks of US power. If those alliances are allowed to crumble, America’s global power would crumble with them.

鑒于對(duì)美國(guó)盟友的輕蔑，特朗普大概不會(huì)太擔(dān)心英日澳三國(guó)的看法。但是，美國(guó)的聯(lián)盟網(wǎng)絡(luò)——如美日安保條約、北約(Nato)和澳新美安全條約(Anzus)——是美國(guó)實(shí)力的基石。如果任由這些聯(lián)盟解體，美國(guó)的全球?qū)嵙㈦S之崩塌。

[email protected] 譯者/申凱