FT社評：當(dāng)創(chuàng)新撞上投機(jī)，數(shù)字貨幣還有立身之地嗎？

Jamie Dimon says the cryptocurrency bitcoin is a “fraud,” and if any of his traders dealt in it they would be sacked for sheer stupidity. Given that he runs JPMorgan Chase, which makes its money from shuffling traditional currencies around, one might suspect Mr Dimon of talking his own book. Is he?

杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)將比特幣(bitcoin)稱為一場“騙局”，并宣稱如果他手下有哪個交易員買賣這種加密貨幣，就會被解雇，因為太蠢。鑒于他掌管著摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，而這家公司掙錢靠的就是讓傳統(tǒng)貨幣流轉(zhuǎn)，有人或許會懷疑戴蒙是在“為自己站臺”。是這樣嗎?

Financial authorities increasingly agree with him. China has banned companies from issuing their own token currencies, and is considering proscribing cryptocurrency exchanges. On Tuesday, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority issued a terse warning on initial coin offerings, which followed a similar comment from Hong Kong’s market regulator.

金融監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的觀點(diǎn)日益與他一致。中國已經(jīng)禁止企業(yè)發(fā)行代幣，也正在考慮禁止加密貨幣交易所。英國金融市場行為監(jiān)管局(Financial Conduct Authority)周二對“首次代幣發(fā)行”(initial coin offerings，簡稱ICO)發(fā)出簡短警告，更早之前，香港的市場監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也發(fā)表了類似言論。

Mr Dimon is clearly correct in one sense: there is an irrational speculative bubble in cryptocurrency prices. The value of the best-known digital currency, bitcoin, has risen eightfold in the past year. A lesser known currency, Ripple, saw its notional value increase from $500m at the start of the year to $35bn, before plunging to $19bn.

從某種意義上說，戴蒙顯然是正確的：加密貨幣的價格已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了非理性的投機(jī)泡沫。其中最著名的比特幣在過去一年漲了8倍。知名度稍遜的Ripple的名義價值從今年年初的5億美元上升到350億美元，隨后猛跌至190億美元。

Comparisons with Dutch tulip bulbs are obligatory wherever speculation takes hold. In the case of cryptocurrency, though, the parallels are eerie. Bitcoin started off as a coders’ hobby in 2008. The modern equivalent of the tulip trading “colleges” are online forums. The underlying logic of both is that a greater fool will always be ready to pay a higher price. As in any case where price is completely separate from intrinsic value, the supply of fools must eventually be exhausted.

只要投機(jī)大行其道，人們就會拿荷蘭郁金香球莖作比較。不過，就加密貨幣來說，這兩者的相似之處令人悚然。2008年比特幣剛問世時只是程序員圈子中的一種愛好?，F(xiàn)代的網(wǎng)絡(luò)論壇，就相當(dāng)于以前的郁金香交易“協(xié)會”(colldges)。兩者的基本邏輯都是：總有更傻的人準(zhǔn)備付更高的價格。每當(dāng)價格完全脫離內(nèi)在價值時，最終傻瓜必然就不夠了。

The speculation draws additional support from the new trend of ICOs. Start-ups are issuing “tokens” — a sort of substitute for a share in an initial public offering — in exchange for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The start-ups then exchange the bitcoins for money to fund operations. In some cases, the tokens are intended to increase in value along with the business. More than $1.8bn has been raised in ICOs.

ICO熱潮的出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步助長了投機(jī)。初創(chuàng)企業(yè)紛紛發(fā)行“代幣”——類似于股票的首次公開發(fā)行——交換比特幣之類的加密貨幣。隨后，這些初創(chuàng)企業(yè)將比特幣兌換成法幣，用于經(jīng)營。有時候，這些代幣會隨著企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展而增值。到目前為止，ICO募資金額已經(jīng)超過了18億美元。

Unlike traditional securities, which must face regulatory scrutiny and offer financial disclosures, any coder can write a “white paper” and start a new currency or issue a token. If a traditional company goes bust, investors and creditors are entitled to recoup what they can from the remaining assets. Its hard to tell if ICO tokens represent a real claim to anything at all. They scream out for abuse.

和必須接受監(jiān)管審查并披露公司財務(wù)信息的傳統(tǒng)證券不同，任何程序員都可以編寫“白皮書”，發(fā)起一種新的貨幣或發(fā)行一種代幣。如果一家傳統(tǒng)企業(yè)破產(chǎn)，投資者和債權(quán)人有權(quán)從剩余資產(chǎn)中獲得補(bǔ)償。而ICO所發(fā)行的代幣是否代表著真正的索賠權(quán)卻很難說，這就必然造成濫用。

The growing interest in these instruments may, in some part, reflect pressures in the larger financial world. Investors are starved for yield. There are fewer equity securities to buy (due to buybacks and private equity) and those that remain look expensive. Gambling on ICOs, in other words, may be a byproduct of years of low rates, ample provision of liquidity by central banks, and de-equitisation.

人們對代幣的興趣日漸增長，一定程度上或許反映了更廣泛金融領(lǐng)域中的壓力。投資者渴望獲利。能買的權(quán)益性證券越來越少(由于回購和私募)，剩下的又很貴。換句話說，ICO領(lǐng)域的賭博現(xiàn)象，或許是多年的低利率、市場上由央行提供的充裕流動性、以及“去股權(quán)化”趨勢共同催生的副產(chǎn)品。

Whether open-source digital currencies, in the absence of hysteria, could be a useful alternative to government-issued money is a hard question. But the underlying technology of distributed ledgers or blockchains has promise in non-monetary contexts. Last month, six of the world’s largest banks joined a project to use blockchain technology to speed up trade settlements, freeing up the capital that the old settlement system requires. Blockchain could also help tidy up discrepancies in shareholder registers, which have led to lawsuits.

在市場沒有狂熱的情況下，開源數(shù)字貨幣會不會成為政府發(fā)行貨幣的一種實用的替代品還很難斷言。但基礎(chǔ)的分布式總賬或區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)在非貨幣場景下卻很有潛力。上個月，全球六大銀行聯(lián)合發(fā)起了一個項目，將使用區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)加快交易結(jié)算，這將可釋放出舊的結(jié)算系統(tǒng)所要求存放的資金。區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)還有助于整理股東名冊上的不一致之處，這種差異引起過法律訴訟。

Mr Dimon is right: fools are gambling in cryptocurrencies, and more fools will be taken in by bad ICOs. That, however, leaves open the possibility that the underlying technology could prove useful, and could come within the global regulatory framework. In finance, innovation and speculative hysteria often appear side by side.

戴蒙是對的：傻瓜們正在加密貨幣上賭博，而且還會有更多的傻瓜被不良ICO蒙騙。然而，這也意味著存在這樣的可能性：基礎(chǔ)區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)可能被證明是有用的，并可能納入全球監(jiān)管框架。在金融領(lǐng)域，創(chuàng)新和投機(jī)性的狂熱往往一同出現(xiàn)。