電動車危及文萊“石油夢”

The energy-rich sultanate of Brunei in Southeast Asia hopes to double oil and gas production over the coming decades but faces hurdles that include falling commercial viability, maritime boundary disputes and Opec-imposed output limits.

擁有豐富能源資源的東南亞國家文萊希望石油和天然氣產量在今后幾十年翻倍，但面臨諸多障礙，包括商業(yè)可行性下降、海洋邊界糾紛以及歐佩克(OPEC)的限產決定。

Energy production in the tiny enclave on the island of Borneo has the potential to climb as high as 800,000 barrels of oil and gas equivalent a day as new geological surveys, extraction techniques and pipeline routes unleash growing reserves, a top official has said.

一位高官表示，隨著新的地質勘查、開采技術以及管線布局釋放越來越多的儲量，這個地處婆羅洲島(譯者注：即加里曼丹島)的小國的能源產量有潛力達到80萬桶油氣當量/日。

But the plunge in international crude prices has thrown Brunei’s plans into doubt, and highlighted how lower market rates threaten to leave some oil-dependent countries with “stranded assets” deemed uneconomic to exploit.

但國際原油價格暴跌讓文萊的增產計劃打上了問號，而且突顯出市場下行是如何對一些依賴石油的國家構成威脅，使它們有可能背負“擱淺資產”(開采這些資產在經濟上不劃算)的。

Mohammad Yasmin Umar, energy minister, told the Financial Times that Brunei’s energy production could rise from 400,000 barrels of oil and gas equivalent today beyond the previously projected 600,000-plus by 2035 to as high as 800,000.

文萊能源大臣穆罕默德•亞斯明•烏馬爾(Mohammad Yasmin Umar)向英國《金融時報》表示，到2035年，該國能源產量可能從當前的40萬桶油氣當量/日提升至80萬桶油氣當量/日，超出之前預估的逾60萬桶。

But he acknowledged this aim could be jeopardised by the world oil price depression and by possible longer-term trends such as the electric car’s “takeover” from combustion-powered vehicles in rich countries.

但他承認，全球油價低迷，以及富裕國家電動汽車取代內燃機汽車等潛在的較長期趨勢，可能危及這個目標。

“We have to do something with the oil that we have,” the former naval officer said, adding: “It will be interesting.”

這位前海軍軍官表示：“我們不得不對自己擁有的石油做點什么，這將會很有意思。”

Brunei’s energy production prospects were “very good” because the latest seismic techniques were revealing both new reserves and extra deposits in existing fields, the minister said. Pipeline network improvements would also make production from some known fields commercially viable for the first time, he added.

烏馬爾表示，文萊的能源生產前景“非常好”，因為最新的地震勘探技術既發(fā)現(xiàn)了新的儲量，也在現(xiàn)有油氣田發(fā)現(xiàn)了額外的油氣層。他補充說，管道網絡改善也將首次讓一些已知油氣田的開采具備商業(yè)可行性。

He stressed that future production increases would be permitted only if companies replaced any tapped deposits with fresh reserves. “The oil operators know that,” said Mr Umar. “This one we don’t negotiate — or the future generations will curse me.”

他強調稱，未來增產只會在企業(yè)能夠用新發(fā)現(xiàn)的儲量來替換已開采儲量的情況下批準。烏馬爾表示，“油田作業(yè)方知道這一點。在這件事情上沒得商量，不然子孫后代會詛咒我”。

A fall of more than half in the benchmark Brent crude oil price since June 2014 has hurt Brunei’s energy-dependent economy. The sultanate’s annual gross domestic product dropped more than a quarter in total in 2015 and 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund, although it predicts a partial rebound this year. Average prices achieved by Brunei for both oil and gas more than halved over the same two-year period.

自2014年6月以來，國際基準布倫特油價下跌逾50%，打擊了文萊的能源依賴型經濟。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，文萊的年度GDP在2015年和2016年總計下滑了逾25%，盡管該組織預計今年將出現(xiàn)一定程度的反彈。在這兩年期間，文萊獲得的石油和天然氣均價下跌了逾50%。

Brunei Shell Petroleum Company, a 50-50 partnership between the government and Royal Dutch Shell, has been the dominant energy producer since the British imperial era and accounts for about 90 per cent of the sultanate’s oil and gas revenues. It did not respond to a request for comment on the minister’s remarks.

自大英帝國時代以來，文萊政府和荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)對半持股的文萊殼牌石油公司(Brunei Shell Petroleum Company)一直是該國占據(jù)主導地位的能源生產商，為文萊貢獻了約90%的石油和天然氣收入。該公司未回應記者提出的對能源大臣言論置評的請求。

Mr Umar played down concerns about China’s territorial ambitions, which include claims to offshore areas where Brunei’s oil industry operates. An international court in The Hague last year rejected China’s claims to most of the South China Sea, but Beijing has dismissed the ruling and continued to build its military presence in other disputed parts of the region.

烏馬爾淡化了有關中國領土野心的擔憂——中國的領土主張與文萊石油行業(yè)作業(yè)的海域部分重疊。海牙一家國際仲裁庭去年駁回了中國對幾乎整個南中國海的領土主張，但北京方面認為這項裁決無效，并繼續(xù)在南海爭議地點構建軍事存在。

Repsol of Spain said this month that it had suspended drilling in a South China Sea oil block licensed by Vietnam but located within the boundary of China’s territorial claim, known as the nine-dash line. China had called for an end to the exploration work.

西班牙石油公司雷普索爾(Repsol)本月表示，其已暫停在一個南海油田區(qū)塊的鉆探活動——該區(qū)塊由越南授權，但落在中國主張的“九段線”范圍內。此前中國曾呼吁停止勘探工作。

Mr Umar said Brunei had always been on good terms with its neighbours, including China. Companies from China are active in port, petrochemicals and bridge-building projects in the sultanate.

烏馬爾表示，文萊始終與包括中國在內的鄰國保持良好關系。中資企業(yè)活躍于文萊的港口、石化和橋梁建設項目。

A further potential constraint on Brunei’s energy ambitions is the production curb imposed by the Opec oil cartel to prop up prices. While the sultanate is not an Opec member, it has agreed to honour the group’s limits until at least the end of the first quarter of next year.

歐佩克旨在提升油價的限產措施，潛在將進一步制約文萊的能源抱負。雖然文萊并非歐佩克成員國，但它已同意至少在明年第一季度結束前遵守歐佩克的限產決定。

Brunei has a policy to lessen its economic dependence on energy exports, but Mr Umar admitted efforts were in their early stages. Oil and gas still provide well over half of annual GDP, having accounted for almost two-thirds before the world market price falls.

文萊出臺了降低經濟對能源出口依賴度的政策，但烏馬爾承認這些努力還處于早期階段。石油和天然氣仍為文萊貢獻一半以上的年度GDP，而在油價下跌前這一比例接近三分之二。