讓非洲人移民亞洲？

No one may yet be advocating it, but two recent reports from the IMF suggest one possible solution to many of the emerging world’s economic woes — mass migration from Africa to Asia.

目前可能還沒有人支持這種看法，但最近來自國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的兩份報告顯示，新興世界很多經(jīng)濟問題的一個可能解決方案是：大量人口從非洲移民到亞洲。

The fund’s latest Asia Pacific regional economic outlook, released this month, warned that the continent was in danger of growing old before it becomes rich because of plunging birth rates. This threatens to leave it in far worse shape than the developed world, which at least became wealthy before the wrinkles set in.

IMF本月公布的最新《亞太地區(qū)經(jīng)濟展望》警告稱，由于生育率大幅下滑，亞太地區(qū)可能會“未富先老”。這可能會讓該地區(qū)的狀況遠遠不及發(fā)達國家，至少后者在變老之前變得富有了。

In sharp contrast, a study of Africa, released in April, concluded that a key reason why the continent has been unable to copy Asia’s rise out of poverty is its “sluggish pace of demographic transition,” ie that its birth rate remains far too high.

與此形成鮮明對比的是，4月發(fā)布的一項有關(guān)非洲的研究報告總結(jié)稱，非洲大陸無法復制亞洲脫貧過程的關(guān)鍵原因，是其“人口特征轉(zhuǎn)變的緩慢速度”，即出生率仍然過高。

In theory, one simple solution that would help alleviate both problems would be a large-scale shift of younger people eastward, even if the complexities and difficulties associated with such an endeavour make it virtually impossible to envisage.

從理論上來說，幫助一舉緩解這兩個問題的一個簡單的解決方案是，讓較年輕人口大規(guī)模向東移民，不過與此相關(guān)的復雜性和難度讓這種做法幾乎無法想象。

Fears over the impact of rapid ageing in Asia, particularly its eastern extremes, are not new.

有人擔心亞洲(尤其是東亞)人口快速老齡化可能產(chǎn)生的影響，這種擔憂并不新鮮。

A year ago Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimated that 80 per cent of the world’s elderly will live in emerging markets, primarily in Asia, by 2050. The developing world is not just following the path trodden by the developed one, it is doing so at a dramatically faster pace, as the first chart shows.

一年前，美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)估計，到2050年，全球80%的老年人將生活在新興市場，主要是亞洲。正如第一張圖表所顯示的那樣，發(fā)展中國家不僅在重走發(fā)達國家的老路，而且速度顯著加快。

In February of this year, projections by Standard Chartered suggested that, by 2050, the likes of South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and China would have a higher share of pensioners in their population than most developed countries, depicted in the second chart.

今年2月，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)的預測顯示，到2050年，韓國、新加坡、泰國和中國等國領(lǐng)退休金的人口比例將高于多數(shù)發(fā)達國家，如第二張圖表所示。

The latest analysis by the IMF points to the likelihood that Asian countries will be far poorer than developed ones when their working-age populations peak as a share of the total population. Indeed, in some countries such as China, Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea, this is not a prediction: it has already happened.

IMF的最新分析指出，亞洲國家在工作年齡人口占總?cè)丝诒壤婍敃r的富裕程度，可能會遠遠不及發(fā)達國家。實際上，在中國、泰國、越南和韓國等一些國家，這已不是預測，而是已變成事實。

According to the Fund’s calculations, when the share of their working-age populations peaked, Australia, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada, France and the UK all had per capita income of at least 70 per cent of the level the US had at the same point, measured in terms of purchasing power parity. These peaks were reached between 1950 and 2009.

根據(jù)IMF的計算，以購買力平價計，在工作年齡人口所占比例見頂時，澳大利亞、日本、德國、意大利、加拿大、法國和英國的人均收入都至少達到了美國相同階段的70%。這些國家的工作年齡人口占比是在1950年至2009年之間見頂?shù)摹?/p>

China’s working-age population peaked 2011 but its per capita income was just 20.7 per cent of the US level. Thailand was a little wealthier, at 28.9 per cent, when its working-age share peaked in 2013, but Vietnam was far poorer still, at 10.4 per cent of the US level, when it reached the same point a year later.

2011年，中國的工作年齡人口占比見頂，但人均收入僅為美國相同階段的20.7%。泰國富有一些，該國在工作年齡人口占比于2013年見頂時，人均收入為美國相同階段的28.9%，但越南更為貧窮，在2014年工作年齡人口占比見頂時，其人均收入為美國相同階段的10.4%。

Malaysia, Indonesia, India and the Philippines are projected to be somewhat better off when they reach peak working-age share, probably between 2020 and 2056, but still some way below the income levels reached in the west, as the third chart shows.

根據(jù)預測，馬來西亞、印尼、印度和菲律賓在工作年齡人口占比見頂時(可能在2020年至2056年間)，收入狀況將較好，但仍低于西方達到的水平，如第三張圖表所示。

“Adapting to ageing could be especially challenging for Asia, as populations living at relatively low per capita income levels in many parts of the region are rapidly becoming old.”

“亞洲很多地區(qū)擁有相對較低人均收入的人群迅速步入老齡，適應人口老齡化對亞洲而言可能格外具有挑戰(zhàn)性。”

The IMF forecasts that population growth, already modestly negative in Japan, will fall to zero Asia-wide by 2050, as fertility rates, currently 1.98 children per woman, fall to 1.83 and rises in life expectancy slow, as indicated in the fourth chart.

IMF預測，到2050年，整個亞洲地區(qū)的人口增速將降至零(日本已變成溫和負值)，生育率將降至1.83(目前為每個女性生育1.98個孩子)，預期壽命延長速度將放緩，如第四張圖表所示。

“In a global context, Asia is shifting from being the biggest contributor to the global working-age population to subtracting hundreds of millions of people from it,” Mr Salgado added.

IMF亞太部門主管拉尼爾•薩爾加多(Ranil Salgado)補充稱：“從全球來看，亞洲正從全球工作年齡人口最大貢獻者變成導致全球勞動年齡人口減少數(shù)億人。”

“In past decades, Asia has benefited significantly from demographic trends. Many parts of Asia, particularly East Asia, reaped a ‘demographic dividend’ as the number of workers grew faster than the number of dependants, providing a strong tailwind for growth. This dividend is about to end for many Asian economies,” wrote Ranil Salgado, division chief of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department.

薩爾加多寫道：“過去幾十年，亞洲大大受益于人口特征趨勢。亞洲很多地區(qū)(特別是東亞)收獲了“人口紅利”，因勞動者數(shù)量增速超過受撫養(yǎng)者數(shù)量增速，有力地推動了經(jīng)濟增長。對于亞洲很多經(jīng)濟體而言，這種人口紅利即將終結(jié)。”

There are caveats here. The analysis is based on 13 Asia Pacific countries and excludes some with very high birth rates such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, Cambodia and Laos, as well as the Middle East which, at one point at least, was considered part of Asia. Moreover, forecasts for global population growth have tended to be revised upwards, rather than downwards, in recent years.

一些問題值得注意。這份分析基于13個亞太國家，不包括一些生育率非常高的國家，例如阿富汗、巴基斯坦、柬埔寨和老撾以及中東國家，中東至少有一度曾被視為亞洲的一部分。另外，最近幾年，全球人口增速預測往往被上調(diào)，而不是下修。

Nevertheless, the IMF is convinced these demographic developments will lead to lower economic growth for most of the countries it has studied.

然而，IMF相信，這些人口特征動向?qū)е略摻M織研究的多數(shù)國家的經(jīng)濟增速放緩。

Between 2020 and 2050 it forecasts that, in the absence of migration, growth in gross domestic product per capita in Hong Kong will be reduced by 1.2 percentage points a year by demographics. It sees comparable reductions of 0.69 percentage points in South Korea, 0.65 points in Singapore, 0.64 points in China. 0.51 in Japan and 0.41 in Thailand, as the fifth chart shows.

IMF預測，從2020年至2050年，在沒有移民的情況下，人口特征將讓香港的人均GDP年增速下滑1.2個百分點。IMF預計，韓國、新加坡和中國的這個數(shù)字將分別為0.69、0.65和0.64個百分點。日本和泰國分別為0.51和0.41個百分點，如第5張圖表所示。

The IMF argues that migration can soften these shortfalls, however. Factoring in UN forecasts for future migration, it calculates that the reduction in GDP growth per capita falls to 0.94 percentage points in Hong Kong and 0.55 points in Singapore, with smaller reductions elsewhere (but a small increase in China, which is expected to be a net exporter of people).

IMF認為，移民可能會緩解這些滑坡。如果把聯(lián)合國對未來移民的預測計算在內(nèi)，IMF估計，香港和新加坡的人均GDP增速降幅將分別縮小至0.94和0.55個百分點，其他地區(qū)的增速降幅縮小幅度較小(但中國的增速降幅將略有增加，預計該國將成為人口凈流出國。)

In the unlikely event that East Asian countries were to choose to pep up their growth rates by opening their doors to mass migration, a different team at the IMF may be able to suggest just where to look.

這種情況不太可能出現(xiàn)：東亞國家選擇向大規(guī)模移民敞開大門，以推動經(jīng)濟增長。但如果這種不太可能的情況真的發(fā)生，那么IMF的另一個團隊或許能夠指出應該從哪里引進移民。

The Fund’s Africa department fears that the continent will struggle to follow the development path blazed by Asia because its birth rate remains far too high.

IMF的非洲部門擔心，非洲將難以仿效亞洲走過的道路，因為非洲的出生率仍然過高。

In the document, Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?, the fund concludes that “sub-Saharan Africa will not be able to transform through manufacturing as East Asia did over the past two decades”.

IMF在《就業(yè)和生產(chǎn)率的結(jié)構(gòu)性轉(zhuǎn)變：非洲能期待什么?》(Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?)中總結(jié)稱，“非洲撒哈拉以南地區(qū)將無法像東亞國家在過去20年所做的那樣，通過制造業(yè)實現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)變”。

The analysis says that when Asia’s manufacturing boom took off, drawing workers to highly productive industries, “the share of employment in the lowest-productivity sectors [primarily agriculture] declined rapidly because of low labour force growth”.

分析稱，在亞洲制造業(yè)熱潮興起(吸引勞動者到高生產(chǎn)率行業(yè))時，“由于勞動力增速較低，生產(chǎn)率最低行業(yè)(主要是農(nóng)業(yè))吸納的就業(yè)比例大幅下滑”。

However, the picture is somewhat different in Africa. While East Asia’s labour force grew by 1.2 per cent a year between 2000 and 2010, and that of South Asia by 1.7 per cent, in sub-Saharan Africa it rose by 2.6 per cent a year.

然而，非洲的情況有些不同。2000年至2010年，東亞勞動力年增速達1.2%，南亞是1.7%，非洲撒哈拉以南地區(qū)為2.6%。

With a median age of 18 in SSA, seven years younger than in South Asia, the next youngest region, “the number of youths entering Africa’s working-age population will be rising for years to come”, the IMF says, with the labour force expected to swell by 200m between 2005 and 2020.

非洲撒哈拉以南地區(qū)的年齡中值為18歲，比第二年輕的南亞小7歲。IMF表示，“非洲進入工作年齡人口的年輕人數(shù)量，將在未來數(shù)年持續(xù)增加。”預計從2005年至2020年，勞動力數(shù)量將增加2億。

The fund says that this lack of demographic transition means that even if the continent was to see a boom in private sector growth as rapid and labour intensive as that of East Asia over the past 20 years, “a similar employment transition could not occur”, as the number of people engaged in areas such as subsistence agriculture would be unlikely to fall.

IMF表示，人口特征沒有轉(zhuǎn)變意味著，即便非洲即將出現(xiàn)東亞過去20年那樣快速且勞動力密集型的私營部門增長熱潮，“類似的就業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)變也不可能出現(xiàn)”，因為在僅能糊口的農(nóng)業(yè)等行業(yè)工作的人口不太可能減少。

“Enterprises would not be able to absorb the same share of the labour force because the labour force would be too big,” it gloomily concludes.

IMF悲觀地總結(jié)稱：“企業(yè)將無法吸納同樣比例的勞動力，因為勞動力太多了。”