推銷未來(lái)：反制懷舊民族主義的唯一辦法

The easiest way to win votes these days is by selling the past. “Nostalgic nationalism”, as my FT colleague Gideon Rachman writes, unites Brexit’s “Take Back Control”, Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and Vladimir Putin’s reassertion of Russian power. There’s only one viable counter-strategy, and French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is trying it in this spring’s election: he is selling the future.

如今，推銷往昔成了贏得選票的最容易方式。正如我在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》的同事吉迪恩•拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)所寫的，“懷舊民族主義”是一條主線，貫穿著英國(guó)退歐陣營(yíng)的“拿回控制權(quán)”(Take Back Control)、唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“讓美國(guó)再次偉大起來(lái)”(Make America Great Again)以及弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)重新宣示俄羅斯實(shí)力的努力。只有一種切實(shí)可行的反制策略，法國(guó)總統(tǒng)候選人埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)正在今春的選舉中嘗試這種策略：推銷未來(lái)。

The one guaranteed losing strategy nowadays is selling the present. Hillary Clinton and the UK’s Remain campaign against Brexit went down defending the status quo. Selling the present now probably works only in Germany, a country inoculated by its history against both nostalgic nationalism and utopianism. So Angela Merkel will run this autumn as the most reassuringly unchangeable figure imaginable: “Mutti” (Mummy). Everywhere else, you run either as the past or the future.

推銷當(dāng)下已成為一種注定失敗的策略。希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)以及英國(guó)留歐陣營(yíng)都因?yàn)楹葱l(wèi)現(xiàn)狀而失敗。如今，推銷當(dāng)下可能只在德國(guó)管用，這個(gè)國(guó)家被歷史接種了抵御懷舊民族主義和烏托邦主義的疫苗。因此，安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)將以可想象到的最讓人放心的不變角色——“媽媽(Mutti)”——投入今秋的大選。而在其他所有地方，候選人不是假借過(guò)去之名，就是打著未來(lái)的旗號(hào)。

Selling the past is an age-old political strategy. Even in ancient Greece, radicals routinely promised a return to a golden age, the classicist Mary Beard writes in The Times Literary Supplement. Nostalgic nationalism always distorts history, but its appeal is visceral: we adults yearn to rewind the gruesome ageing process and go back in time. Nostalgic nationalism is also appealingly optimistic. Contrary to what pundits said, Trump’s campaign never lapsed into pessimism. He claimed that the present sucked but guaranteed a painless return to the good old days.

推銷往昔是一種古老的政治策略。古典學(xué)者瑪麗•比爾德(Mary Beard)在《泰晤士報(bào)文學(xué)增刊》(The Times Literary Supplement)上寫道，即便在古希臘，激進(jìn)分子也經(jīng)常許諾帶領(lǐng)民眾回到昔日的黃金時(shí)代。懷舊民族主義總是歪曲歷史，但其吸引力源自人的本能：我們成年人渴望逆轉(zhuǎn)令人厭惡的衰老過(guò)程，回到過(guò)去的時(shí)光。懷舊民族主義也散發(fā)出一種誘人的樂(lè)觀情緒。與評(píng)論人士所言相反，特朗普的競(jìng)選活動(dòng)從未陷入悲觀。他宣稱當(dāng)下糟糕透了，但他可以保證輕松回到昔日的美好時(shí)光。

Selling the past works best in the UK. Brits have an almost uniquely uncomplicated relationship with their own history, having had no revolution, civil war, dictatorship or invasion since 1688. Whereas the US had slavery at home, Brits performed their colonial atrocities far from domestic sight. Britons over 65 were raised on schoolbooks, comics and films about imperial conquest and Hitler’s Blitz; 64 per cent of them backed Brexit.

“推銷過(guò)去”在英國(guó)效果最好。英國(guó)人與本國(guó)歷史之間有一種近乎絕無(wú)僅有的簡(jiǎn)單關(guān)系，自1688年以來(lái)英國(guó)沒(méi)有發(fā)生過(guò)革命、內(nèi)戰(zhàn)、獨(dú)裁或入侵。美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)曾實(shí)行奴隸制，而英國(guó)人在遠(yuǎn)離國(guó)內(nèi)視線的地方進(jìn)行殘暴的殖民統(tǒng)治。65歲以上的英國(guó)人是在描繪帝國(guó)征服和希特勒(Hitler)閃電戰(zhàn)的教科書(shū)、漫畫和電影的影響下長(zhǎng)大的;他們中64%的人支持退歐。

But nostalgic nationalism suits France almost as well. There, as in Britain, the present often shrinks to the size of a pinhead. Most French political discourse revolves around a superior past. There’s the lost superpower status. There’s the semi-mythical figure of the small farmer. There’s the obsession with the trente glorieuses, the 30 supposedly glorious years of economic recovery from 1945. In short, the Front National’s declinist view of France has become the non-partisan standard. Now Marine Le Pen wants to bring back the French franc, while her opponents talk about “preserving” the Republic from her.

但懷舊民族主義幾乎同樣適用于法國(guó)。就像在英國(guó)一樣，在當(dāng)今的法國(guó)，當(dāng)下經(jīng)常小到不值一提。法國(guó)政治話語(yǔ)大部分圍繞這個(gè)國(guó)家輝煌的過(guò)去：已經(jīng)失去的超級(jí)大國(guó)地位;近乎神話般的小農(nóng)戶人物形象;對(duì)“黃金三十年”(Les Trente Glorieuses)——始于1945年的所謂30年輝煌的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇——的念念不忘。簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)，國(guó)民陣線(Front National)關(guān)于法國(guó)衰落的觀點(diǎn)已成為超黨派的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。如今，馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)希望恢復(fù)法國(guó)法郎，而她的對(duì)手們談?wù)撝獜乃掷?ldquo;保住”法蘭西共和國(guó)。

In France, the past’s superiority is written into the political landscape. Because French leaders work in ancient Parisian palaces, they appear dwarfed by past titans. The problem afflicts all old European capitals. When Matteo Renzi worked in Florence’s Palazzo Medici as president of the province, he’d joke with tourists in his basic English: “Five hundred years ago, Lorenzo de’ Medici. Today, Matteo Renzi. This is the decadence of Florence!”

在法國(guó)，昔日的優(yōu)越性已被寫入政治地景。因?yàn)榉▏?guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人在巴黎的古老宮殿里辦公，與過(guò)去的政治巨人相比，他們顯得相形見(jiàn)絀。這一問(wèn)題困擾著歐洲所有的古都。當(dāng)擔(dān)任佛羅倫薩省省長(zhǎng)的馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)在佛羅倫薩的美第奇-里卡迪宮(Palazzo Medici Riccardi)辦公時(shí)，他曾用簡(jiǎn)單的英語(yǔ)對(duì)游客開(kāi)玩笑稱：“500年前，(站在這里的是)洛倫佐•德•麥第奇(Lorenzo de' Medici)。如今，(站在這里的是)馬泰奧•倫齊。這就是佛羅倫薩的墮落啊!”

But when Renzi decided to take over Italy, he presented himself as a futurist, recounts Giuliano da Empoli in his French biography Le Florentin. As Macron will know, this entails following a fixed set of rules.

但是，根據(jù)朱里亞諾•達(dá)恩波利(Giuliano da Empoli)在其法文傳記《佛羅倫薩人》(Le Florentin)中的描述，但當(dāng)倫齊決定角逐意大利總理職務(wù)時(shí)，他把自己包裝成一名未來(lái)主義者。正如馬克龍將會(huì)明白的，這意味著必須遵循一套固定的規(guī)則。

First, because a successful politician embodies his own message, a futurist has to be young. Renzi became Italy’s youngest leader ever in 2014, just as his futurist role model Tony Blair was Britain’s youngest prime minister since 1812, and 39-year-old Macron would be France’s youngest leader since Napoleon. In an era when any political experience is considered disqualifying, young candidates emphasise their youth. Renzi, writes da Empoli, wore sneakers and jeans to meetings, poured an ice bucket over himself on TV, and always went by “Matteo” — a throwback to Blair’s famous first words to his cabinet: “Just call me Tony.”

首先，因?yàn)橐粋€(gè)成功的政治人物要成為自己傳遞的信息的化身，所以，一個(gè)未來(lái)主義者必須年輕。2014年，倫齊成為意大利歷史上最年輕的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，正如其未來(lái)主義者榜樣托尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)是1812年以來(lái)英國(guó)最年輕的首相，而39歲的馬克龍如果當(dāng)選將成為自拿破侖(Napoleon)以來(lái)法國(guó)最年輕的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。在一個(gè)政治經(jīng)驗(yàn)被視為有損任職資格的年代，年輕的候選人強(qiáng)調(diào)自己的年輕。達(dá)恩波利寫道，倫齊穿著運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋、牛仔褲去開(kāi)會(huì)，在電視上進(jìn)行冰桶挑戰(zhàn)，并且總喜歡被稱為“馬泰奧(Matteo)”——這讓人聯(lián)想起布萊爾對(duì)英國(guó)內(nèi)閣的那句著名開(kāi)場(chǎng)白：“叫我托尼就行(Just call me Tony)。”

Second, the futurist runs against the past, starting with his own party. Blair, who saw history as a boring repository of failed policies, denigrated his party as “Old Labour”. Macron has started a whole new “movement” with the quintessentially futurist name En Marche! (On the march!). He has also dissed the national past by urging France to apologise for colonial crimes in Algeria.

第二，未來(lái)主義者與過(guò)去進(jìn)行角力，首先是不客氣對(duì)待其所在政黨。把歷史視為枯燥的失敗政策存檔室的布萊爾，將自己所在的政黨貶稱為“老工黨(Old Labour)”。馬克龍發(fā)起了一場(chǎng)全新的“運(yùn)動(dòng)”，并為之取了一個(gè)典型的未來(lái)派名字“En Marche!(前進(jìn)!)”。他還通過(guò)敦促法國(guó)向在阿爾及利亞犯下的殖民罪行道歉來(lái)鞭笞這個(gè)國(guó)家的歷史。

Third, the futurist must present himself as an enemy of the status quo, and therefore the main protagonist of the election. This is a prized title, a dynamic role. Hillary Clinton handed it to Trump. In France, Le Pen assumed she would get the title part, but Macron wants it for himself. You know you’re the main protagonist when other candidates start attacking you as a danger to the country. Last, of course, the futurist offers a glorious future. The model here is John F Kennedy’s promise in 1961 to put a man on the moon.

第三，未來(lái)主義者必須把自己包裝為現(xiàn)狀的敵人，這樣才能成為大選的主角。這是一個(gè)寶貴的頭銜，一個(gè)充滿活力的角色。希拉里將它拱手讓給了特朗普。在法國(guó)，勒龐自以為可以得到這一頭銜，但馬克龍也想為自己爭(zhēng)取。當(dāng)其他候選人開(kāi)始抨擊你給國(guó)家?guī)?lái)危險(xiǎn)時(shí)，你就知道自己成了主角。當(dāng)然，最后，未來(lái)主義者要展現(xiàn)一個(gè)輝煌的未來(lái)。這方面的楷模是1961年承諾將人類送上月球的約翰•F•肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)。

Younger people vote less than oldies, but the target market for futurists expands every year. If you’re French or British and aged under 50, you probably aren’t a political nostalgic. The second world war, empire and even the trente glorieuses seem like ancient history. You believe you live in just another ordinary midsized country.

雖然年輕人投票不如老年人積極，但未來(lái)主義者的目標(biāo)市場(chǎng)每年都在擴(kuò)大。如果你是不到50歲的法國(guó)人或英國(guó)人，你多半不會(huì)是一個(gè)政治懷舊主義者。二戰(zhàn)、帝國(guó)，甚至“黃金三十年”看起來(lái)像古代史。你相信自己只是生活在又一個(gè)中等規(guī)模的普通國(guó)家。

Macron hopes France’s presidential run-off will pit future against past. Twenty years to the week that Blair entered Downing Street on a beautiful futurist May dawn, Macron could walk into the Elysée. That instant, he downgrades from future to present.

馬克龍希望法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的最終對(duì)決是一場(chǎng)未來(lái)與過(guò)去的對(duì)抗。20年前，在五月一個(gè)屬于未來(lái)主義者的美麗清晨，布萊爾步入了唐寧街(Downing Street)，今天的馬克龍也可以踏入愛(ài)麗舍宮(Elysée)。在那一刻，他的專注點(diǎn)將從未來(lái)回到當(dāng)下。