Lex專欄：誰真正救了萬科？

Rejoice at the demise of a poorly motivated deal. Yesterday China Vanke, the developer listed in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, said it would not after all buy assets from Shenzhen Metro in exchange for shares. The deal was touted in March as a means to ensure Vanke’s future growth. It was, rather, designed to bring a large, friendly shareholder on to the register to tip the balance in a battle for control.

太好了，一筆動機不足的交易黃了。在香港和深圳兩地上市的開發(fā)商萬科(China Vanke)昨日最終表示，將不會用股票換取深圳地鐵(Shenzhen Metro)的資產。這筆交易在3月曾被宣傳為確保萬科未來增長的一種手段，但其真實目的是讓一個龐大的、友好的股東成為大股東，以改變股權之爭中的力量對比。

Vanke has been caught in a takeover tussle since last year when companies affiliated with Baoneng, a privately owned insurer, began to build a stake now worth one quarter of the company. Although the largest shareholder, Baoneng’s position has been weakened. Last week China’s insurance regulator said it would lower the limit on equity investment by insurers from 40 to 30 per cent of their portfolios. Individual holdings cannot amount to more than 5 per cent, half the previous level. The intention of authorities, which have upbraided Baoneng for using leverage to buy into Vanke, is clear.

萬科從去年開始陷入收購爭奪戰(zhàn)，當時私人所有的保險公司寶能(Baoneng)的關聯(lián)企業(yè)開始增持萬科股份，現已持有萬科四分之一股份。不過最大股東寶能的地位已被削弱。上周中國保險監(jiān)管機構表示，將權益類資產占保險公司總資產比例上限從40%下調至30%，單一股票投資不得超過5%(比原規(guī)定上限水平減少一半)。曾斥責寶能利用杠桿收購萬科的有關部門的意圖很明顯。

Baoneng is not alone in having its ambitions curbed. Hong Kong-listed China Evergrande owns 14 per cent of Vanke through subsidiaries. Its insurance arm has had product sales halted and it has been barred from investing in China’s stock markets. Evergrande said on Chinese state TV it had no interest in the control of its peer, suggesting it will not side with Baoneng. Fortunately, too, cancelling the Shenzhen Metro deal will bring China Resources, the state-owned enterprise which owns 15 per cent of Vanke, back on side with management.

野心受到外力抑制的并不止寶能一家。在香港上市的中國恒大(China Evergrande)通過子公司持有萬科14%股份。恒大旗下保險公司的產品銷售已被叫停，且被禁止投資中國股票市場。恒大在中國國家電視臺上表示，自己無意、也不會做萬科的控股股東，暗示自己不會與寶能聯(lián)手。幸運的是，深圳地鐵交易的取消，將令持有萬科15%股份的國有企業(yè)華潤(China Resources)重新與萬科管理層站到同一戰(zhàn)線。

Not a moment too soon. In the first half of 2016, skittish partners began to back away from Vanke projects; S&P in August downgraded its outlook from stable to negative. And after a stellar run, China’s property market is softening. Yesterday, official data showed that prices have stalled, in response to cooling measures including mortgage restrictions. Vanke can now focus on the problem thanks to its real white knight: officialdom.

時機不早不晚。2016年上半年，緊張不安的合作伙伴們開始紛紛退出萬科項目，標準普爾(S&P)在8月份將萬科評級展望由穩(wěn)定降為負面。而且經過一輪高速增長后，中國房地產市場已開始疲軟。昨日官方數據顯示，由于按揭限制等樓市降溫措施的作用，房價已開始停滯。萬科現在可以集中精力解決自己的問題了，這都要感謝真正的白衣騎士——官方。