分析：償債是中國(guó)資本外流比較大因素

While an overseas buying spree by Chinese companies has grabbed headlines, more mundane activity such as trade finance and corporate cash management are a much bigger strain on China’s foreign exchange reserves, analysis of official data shows.

盡管中國(guó)企業(yè)的海外收購(gòu)熱潮成為頭條新聞，但是對(duì)官方數(shù)據(jù)的分析顯示，貿(mào)易融資和企業(yè)現(xiàn)金管理等更平凡的活動(dòng)是造成中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備降低的更大因素。

The dominance of bank lending and portfolio investment as a source of Chinese capital outflows casts doubt on whether Beijing’s recent clampdown on big-ticket foreign deals by the likes of Dalian Wanda and Anbang Insurance can shield the renminbi from downward pressure, intensified by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise on Thursday.

銀行貸款的償還和組合投資的解除在中國(guó)資本外流中占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，令人懷疑北京方面能否通過(guò)近期對(duì)大連萬(wàn)達(dá)(Dalian Wanda)和安邦保險(xiǎn)(Anbang Insurance)等中資企業(yè)的境外大筆交易踩下剎車，來(lái)阻止人民幣受到下行壓力的影響;美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)上周四加息加劇了這種壓力。

Bank lending and securities investment accounted for $301bn in net outflows from China in the first nine months of the year, compared with $78bn from outbound foreign direct investment, according to Financial Times analysis of balance-of-payments data.

根據(jù)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)國(guó)際收支數(shù)據(jù)的分析，銀行貸款的償還和證券投資的解除在今年前九個(gè)月中國(guó)的凈資金流出中占3010億美元，相比之下對(duì)外直接投資占780億美元。

Beyond loan repayments and securities sales, illicit flows are also increasingly prominent. “Errors and omissions” — a catch-all for cross-border transfers that have not been properly classified — caused net outflows of $89bn in the first half of 2016, which is also nearly double the $46bn net FDI outflows in the same period. Errors and omissions are not yet available for the third quarter.

除了償還貸款和賣出證券外，非法資金流也越來(lái)越突出。 2016年上半年，“錯(cuò)誤與遺漏項(xiàng)目”(對(duì)于未經(jīng)適當(dāng)分類的跨境資金轉(zhuǎn)移的一個(gè)籠統(tǒng)表述)造成890億美元凈流出，幾乎兩倍于同期460億美元的外國(guó)直接投資(FDI)凈流出。第三季度的錯(cuò)誤與遺漏數(shù)據(jù)尚不能獲得。

China has taken substantial steps since 2012 to liberalise cross-border money flows as it sought to internationalise its currency and pursued the International Monetary Fund’s endorsement as a reserve currency. Those steps have opened the door to unprecedented capital outflow pressure as hot money now leaves through the same deregulated channels through which it entered.

自2012年以來(lái)，中國(guó)采取重大步驟放開跨境資金流動(dòng)，力圖使人民幣國(guó)際化，并追求國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)認(rèn)可其為一種儲(chǔ)備貨幣。這些步驟為前所未有的資本流出壓力開啟了大門，現(xiàn)在“熱錢”正通過(guò)與入境時(shí)相同的放松管制的渠道流出。

“Several hundred billion in outflows are simply associated with repayment of existing loans,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Treasury official.

“數(shù)千億美元的外流只與現(xiàn)有貸款的償還有關(guān)，”美國(guó)外交關(guān)系委員會(huì)(Council on Foreign Relations)高級(jí)研究員、美國(guó)財(cái)政部前官員布拉德•塞澤爾(Brad Setser)表示。

Foreign bank claims on China, a broad measure of cross-border lending, have fallen by $305bn in the 18 months through June this year, according to the most recent figures from Bank for International Settlements, showing how banks are pulling funds from the country. Claims had risen by $643bn in the previous two years.

根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行(BIS)近期的數(shù)據(jù)，外資銀行對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)體擁有的債權(quán)(跨境放貸的廣義衡量指標(biāo))在截至今年6月的18個(gè)月里下降了3050億美元，顯示各銀行正從中國(guó)撤回資金。在之前兩年，外資銀行在華擁有的債權(quán)曾增加6430億美元。

Much of this lending came in the form of trade finance. When the renminbi was appreciating against the dollar, Chinese importers eagerly borrowed in dollars. Such borrowing was effectively a bet on the Chinese currency appreciating because in renminbi terms, dollar debt was cheaper to pay back by the time the loan matured. Now outflows are occuring as importers repay foreign loans and shift to local financing.

這些貸款有很大一部分是貿(mào)易融資。當(dāng)人民幣對(duì)美元升值時(shí)，中國(guó)進(jìn)口商急切地以美元借款。這類借款實(shí)際上是對(duì)人民幣升值的押注，因?yàn)橐匀嗣駧庞?jì)算，美元債務(wù)在貸款到期時(shí)償還起來(lái)更便宜了。如今，隨著中國(guó)進(jìn)口商積極償還外幣貸款，并轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)融資，中國(guó)出現(xiàn)了較大資金外流。

Savvy cash management by corporate treasurers seeking to maximise returns on idle cash likewise fuelled inflows. In addition to gains from renminbi appreciation, corporations could profit from higher interest rates available in renminbi at a time when the Federal Reserve was holding dollar rates near zero.

同樣，尋求最大限度提高閑置現(xiàn)金回報(bào)率的企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)主管的精明現(xiàn)金管理，也曾助燃了資金流入。除了人民幣升值帶來(lái)的收益外，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將美元利率保持在接近于零的低位之際，企業(yè)可以獲利于人民幣較高的利率。

“Corporates rushed to raise funding in dollars because interest rates were very low. Now that carry trade is being unwound,” said Harrison Hu, China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.

“企業(yè)紛紛用美元融資，因?yàn)槟菚r(shí)利率很低。現(xiàn)在這類套利交易正被解除，”蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)駐新加坡的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家胡志鵬(Harrison Hu)表示。

To be sure, the regulatory focus on corporate deals is a response to a rapid acceleration of outbound FDI. But it also reflects the lower disruption from tightening the reins on foreign acquisitions compared with forcing loan or bond defaults by blocking cross-border debt repayments.

應(yīng)該承認(rèn)，中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)企業(yè)并購(gòu)的關(guān)注是對(duì)中資對(duì)外FDI迅速加快的回應(yīng)。但它也反映出，相比阻止跨境償債來(lái)迫使貸款或債券違約，收緊境外收購(gòu)的干擾程度較低。

Even so, some bankers and analysts now worry that even debt payments will eventually feel the impact of the recent clampdown on outflows.

即使如此，一些銀行家和分析師現(xiàn)在擔(dān)心，就連償債支付最終也會(huì)感受到近期對(duì)資金流出的限制的影響。

“The cross-border regulations could definitely have an impact on companies that have offshore debt,” said Xia Le, chief Asia economist at BBVA in Hong Kong. “There is a concern that many will have to refinance but at a much higher cost. They will need to issue very high-yielding bonds.”

“跨境監(jiān)管肯定會(huì)對(duì)有境外債務(wù)的企業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響，”西班牙對(duì)外銀行(BBVA)駐香港的首席亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家夏樂表示。“現(xiàn)在有一個(gè)擔(dān)憂是，許多企業(yè)將不得不以高得多的成本進(jìn)行再融資。他們將需要發(fā)行收益率很高的債券。