亞洲企業(yè)的信貸狂歡如何收場？

Last spring, Sime Darby, a Malaysian conglomerate, announced that it planned to sell noncore assets. It was an attempt to generate cash because much of its Rm16bn debt was coming due quite soon. Like many other companies in Southeast Asia, Sime Darby had ramped up borrowing in the expectation of better economic times that failed to materialise. Its debt swelled from Rm10bn in 2013 to Rm18bn in 2015, while net income dropped by 30 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.

去年春天，馬來西亞綜合企業(yè)森達(dá)美(Sime Darby)宣布，計劃出售非核心資產(chǎn)。此舉是為了回籠資金，因?yàn)樵摴究傊?60億林吉特的債務(wù)即將到期。像東南亞其他很多公司一樣，森達(dá)美此前抱著對經(jīng)濟(jì)景氣的期待而增加借貸，但結(jié)果經(jīng)濟(jì)并不景氣。據(jù)彭博(Bloomberg)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，該公司的債務(wù)水平從2013年的100億林吉特增加至2015年的180億林吉特，而在此期間其凈利潤減少了30%。

Blackstone’s Asian real estate group, which had been hunting for assets in Singapore and other attractive locations, quickly pounced. It bought three Sime Darby properties in the city state: two malls and a car showroom.

一直在新加坡和其他具有吸引力的地方物色資產(chǎn)的黑石(Blackstone)旗下的亞洲房地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)很快下手，收購了森達(dá)美在這座城市國家的三項(xiàng)資產(chǎn)：兩座購物中心和一個汽車展示廳。

Since then, the pressure on many cash-strapped Asian companies has only worsened. In recent years, groups in a number of emerging markets took on large amounts of debt, often borrowing in US dollars to take advantage of low rates generated by the Federal Reserve’s easing policies. According to a JPMorgan report, the ratio of private non-financial debt to GDP in emerging markets, excluding China, now exceeds the peak level of developed market debt around the time of the global financial crisis: about 175 per cent.

自那以來，亞洲很多資金緊張的公司承受的壓力有增無減。近年來，很多新興市場的企業(yè)大規(guī)模舉債，往往利用美聯(lián)儲(Fed)寬松政策帶來的低利率而借入美元債務(wù)。根據(jù)摩根大通(JPMorgan)的一份報告，新興市場(除中國以外)私營部門非金融債務(wù)與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)之比，如今超過了全球金融危機(jī)前后發(fā)達(dá)市場債務(wù)水平的峰值——175%左右。

But that credit binge now looks problematic in the wake of Donald Trump’s election, which has boosted both the dollar and expectations that the Fed will soon raise US interest rates. “Deleveraging is just beginning in the EM and the road looks to be long,” the JPMorgan economists noted in their report late last month.

但是，在唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)(推動了美元上漲以及外界對美聯(lián)儲將很快加息的預(yù)期)之后，這場信貸狂歡如今看來問題重重。 “新興市場才剛剛開始去杠桿，前方道路看起來還很長，”摩根大通的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們上月下旬在他們的報告中指出。

Clouds over Asian emerging markets have been gathering for a while. Much of the regional economy depends on trade, which has been virtually flat in both value and volume terms for several years.

籠罩在亞洲新興市場頭上的陰云已經(jīng)聚集了一段時間。亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)在很大程度上依賴于貿(mào)易，而近年來貿(mào)易無論在總值還是總量上都幾乎持平。

Weak demand and falling prices for commodities have played a large part, but Asia’s role in the global electronics manufacturing supply chain is also critical. China, which drives that supply chain, is buying more inside its borders and providing less of a boost to its neighbours. Slowing Apple and Samsung sales are also hitting smartphone suppliers. If the new US administration puts pressure on Apple to bring jobs home, then the clouds will darken further.

大宗商品需求疲軟和價格下跌起到了很大作用，但是亞洲在全球電子制造供應(yīng)鏈中的角色也起到了關(guān)鍵作用。驅(qū)動著這條供應(yīng)鏈的中國，開始更多地在境內(nèi)購買，對鄰國制造業(yè)的拉動作用減弱。蘋果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)銷量放緩也打擊了智能手機(jī)供應(yīng)商。如果美國新一屆行政當(dāng)局施壓蘋果公司把就業(yè)崗位遷回本土，那么籠罩著亞洲新興市場的烏云將更加陰郁。

A repeat of the 1997 Asian financial crisis in which many companies went bust is not likely. Currencies are less overvalued, current account deficits are down and the foreign reserves of governments in the region are far more substantial. Still, the dramatic reversal in the dollar and the upward trajectory in rates will create opportunities for buyers of distressed assets — from India through Southeast Asia and even China.

1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)曾造成眾多企業(yè)破產(chǎn)，那樣的災(zāi)難不太可能重演。如今各國貨幣匯率高估的情況沒那么嚴(yán)重，經(jīng)常賬戶赤字水平?jīng)]那么高，而政府外匯儲備雄厚得多。話雖如此，美元走勢急劇逆轉(zhuǎn)、利率步入上升軌道，將為在印度、東南亞、甚至中國尋覓困境資產(chǎn)的買家創(chuàng)造機(jī)會。

Today, a range of investment firms including Blackstone, Farallon, KKR, SSG and Clearwater Capital are circling in anticipation of a wave of asset sales as the burden of US dollar debt rises for many companies, particularly in Southeast Asia. Many distressed debt players already have lists of potential sources for deals, with Indonesian companies at the top of the list.

如今，隨著很多企業(yè)(特別是東南亞地區(qū))的美元債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)日益加重，黑石、Farallon、KKR、SSG和Clearwater Capital等投資公司正在伺機(jī)而動，期待著一波資產(chǎn)出售潮。很多不良債務(wù)的玩家已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好了潛在交易對象名單，其中印尼企業(yè)最多。

For example, several are circling Rajawali, a conglomerate with interests in property, agriculture, mining, infrastructure, transportation and media. It has recently put $500m investment into Jakarta’s Capital Place real estate development, which is anchored by a new Four Seasons hotel, and is set to pump close to $700m, into another luxury development called Rajawali Place (which will feature a six-star St Regis hotel).

例如，一些買家瞄準(zhǔn)了飛鷹(Rajawali)，這是一家擁有房地產(chǎn)、農(nóng)業(yè)、采礦、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、交通和媒體資產(chǎn)的綜合企業(yè)。該集團(tuán)最近向雅加達(dá)的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目Capital Place(其重頭是一家全新的四季酒店(Four Seasons Hotel))投入5億美元，并且將向另一個名為Rajawali Place的奢侈地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目(包括一家六星級瑞吉酒店(St Regis Hotel))注入近7億美元投資。

Some distressed debt investors believe the company could be a potential target in the new financial climate. But Shirley Tan, the property unit’s chief executive, says its performance in 2016 is “OK” and points out the low borrowing ratio for its hotel developments.

一些不良債務(wù)投資者認(rèn)為，該公司可能在新的金融環(huán)境中成為一個潛在目標(biāo)。但是飛鷹地產(chǎn)首席執(zhí)行官Shirley Tan表示，該公司2016年的業(yè)績“還好”，并指出其酒店開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的借款比率較低。

In India, GVK, an infrastructure company, is in talks with Goldman Sachs about a $250m loan that would be collateralised by its stake in the Mumbai airport, people familiar with the matter say.

知情人士稱，印度基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施公司GVK正在就一筆2.5億美元的貸款與高盛(Goldman Sachs)談判，該公司在孟買機(jī)場所持的股份將作為這筆貸款的抵押。

GVK’s local bankers have talked to the Hyderabad-based company about selling part of its stake in the Bangalore airport to Fairfax of Canada. One top executive at GVK says its bankers have been “very supportive”.

與GVK打交道的當(dāng)?shù)劂y行家接洽了這家總部位于海得拉巴(Hyderabad)的公司，商討將其在班加羅爾機(jī)場所持的部分股份出售給加拿大Fairfax。GVK一名高管稱，銀行家們“非常支持”。

Expect many more companies to consider such sales with pressure from less supportive bankers shortly.

預(yù)計很快會有更多企業(yè)在不那么支持的銀行家的施壓下考慮此類出售。