2017年大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品走勢要看中國

 
China’s handling of its state reserves of raw materials such as cotton and sugar will be a key factor shaping the direction of agricultural commodities in 2017, according to a major lender to agribusinesses.

一家貸款給農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)的大型銀行稱，中國對棉花和糖等原材料官方儲備的處置，將成為影響2017年大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品走勢的一個關(guān)鍵因素。

China is “the most striking wild card” that will drive agricultural markets, said Stefan Vogel, head of agri commodity markets at Rabobank, the Dutch lender that is a leading financier to farmers and agribusinesses around the world.

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場主管斯特凡•沃熱爾(Stefan Vogel)表示，中國是推動農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場的“最引人注目的變數(shù)”。荷蘭合作銀行是面向全球農(nóng)戶和農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)的領(lǐng)先融資機(jī)構(gòu)。

Any decision by China’s policymakers to begin selling down the country’s huge reserves would have a large impact on markets. “Whether China opens the stock floodgates or not will be a major price-driver in cotton and sugar — and potentially also in corn, soyabean or vegetable oil — markets in 2017,” the bank said in its report.

中國政策制定者的任何開始減持國內(nèi)巨額儲備的決定，都將對市場產(chǎn)生巨大影響。該銀行在其報告中稱：“中國是否減持庫存將成為2017年棉花和糖市場的主要價格推動因素，玉米、大豆或植物油可能也是如此。”

Beijing is looking to unload excess reserves built up under the government’s subsidy policy. It set minimum prices too high for commodities including cotton, sugar and corn, and as those prices diverged from the market prices, authorities encouraged excessive production as well as strong import flows.

中國正考慮出售在政府補(bǔ)貼政策下累積的過剩儲備。中國為包括棉花、糖和玉米在內(nèi)的大宗商品設(shè)置的最低價格過高，當(dāng)這些價格偏離市場價格時，政府鼓勵了過度生產(chǎn)以及強(qiáng)勁的進(jìn)口。

Agricultural raw materials, especially the so called “soft commodities” such as sugar, coffee and cotton, have been among the top performers this year. The Bloomberg soft commodities index has gained 21 per cent, compared with 24 per cent for industrial metals and 1.5 per cent for energy. Grains have fallen about 3 per cent.

農(nóng)業(yè)原材料，特別是所謂的“軟性大宗商品”，例如糖、咖啡和棉花，今年的表現(xiàn)在最佳之列。彭博(Bloomberg)軟性大宗商品指數(shù)上漲21%，工業(yè)金屬和能源指數(shù)則分別上漲24%和1.5%。糧食指數(shù)下滑約3%。

On the US, Rabobank said it was “cautious on the outlook” following the election as president this month of Donald Trump. The US president-elect has pledged to abandon trade agreements which could have “wide-reaching effects on American imports and exports of commodities” if trade agreements are revised.

荷蘭合作銀行表示，在本月唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)后，該行對美國的“前景持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度”。這位當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)承諾廢除貿(mào)易協(xié)議：如果這些貿(mào)易協(xié)議被修訂，可能會對“美國大宗商品的進(jìn)口和出口造成廣泛影響”。

Speculative trading of agricultural commodities has been a feature of the markets’ volatility in 2016, and Rabobank expects the trend to continue. With interest rates expected to rise only slowly, commodities are likely to attract hedge funds and other speculative investors looking for juicier returns, said the bank.

大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品投機(jī)交易一直是今年市場波動的一個特點(diǎn)，荷蘭合作銀行預(yù)測，這種趨勢將繼續(xù)。該銀行表示，由于利率只會緩慢上行，大宗商品可能會吸引那些尋找更高收益率的對沖基金和其他投機(jī)客。

It predicts index funds, or those that track commodities indices, to be back in the agricultural market in the second half of 2017, as they look for a hedge against inflation.

該銀行預(yù)測，尋找對沖通脹的方式的指數(shù)基金(那些追蹤大宗商品指數(shù)的基金)，將在明年下半年回歸農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場。

Volatility in currency markets is also likely to be a factor for agricultural commodity prices in the next 12 months, with the euro likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections, Rabobank reckons.

荷蘭合作銀行認(rèn)為，外匯市場波動性也可能會成為影響未來12個月大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的因素，法國、荷蘭和德國大選可能會導(dǎo)致歐元貶值。

Currency movements have had a strong impact on agricultural commodity prices this year, with the UK’s referendum on the EU leading to a sharp fall in the pound that pushed up the price of food imports and boosted agricultural exports. By contrast, the strengthening of the Brazilian real helped the surge in coffee and sugar prices as the country is the largest producer of both.

匯率走勢今年已對大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格產(chǎn)生有力影響，英國退歐公投曾導(dǎo)致英鎊匯率重挫，這推升了英國食品進(jìn)口價格并提振了農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口。相比之下，巴西雷亞爾升值促使咖啡和糖價格飆升，因為該國是這兩種商品的最大生產(chǎn)國。

In terms of individual commodities, coffee prices, which are trading at about $1.62 a pound, are expected to decline significantly, with an especially bearish outlook on arabica coffee.

從單個大宗商品來看，預(yù)計咖啡價格將大幅下跌，目前為1磅1.62美元左右，投資者對阿拉比卡咖啡前景尤為悲觀。

As consumers in developing countries continue to shift to meat-based diets, grains and oilseeds used as livestock feed are expected to see support. Soyabeans which are trading above $10 a bushel are expected to remain strong, while dairy prices are also expected to rise during 2017 as demand steadily increases, said the bank.

隨著發(fā)展中國家消費(fèi)者繼續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)向以肉為主的飲食，預(yù)計用作牲畜飼料的糧食和油籽將找到支撐。荷蘭合作銀行表示，預(yù)計大豆價格將保持強(qiáng)勁，目前在1蒲式耳10美元上方，同時由于需求穩(wěn)定上升，預(yù)計奶制品價格明年也將上漲。