我無法對特朗普當選保持平靜

Calm down dear” my fellow interviewee instructed me on BBC Newsnight when, a day after the US election I dialled the vehemence up to 11. I paid her no heed.

“平靜些，親愛的，”和我一起在BBC《新聞之夜》(Newsnight)中接受采訪的女士開導我。那是在美國大選的次日，我情緒激昂。我沒有聽她的建議。

Calming down is always the medicine prescribed to the losers by the winners lest their self-congratulation be inconvenienced by opposition. But bowing to the judgment of the polls does not entail a suspension of dissent, especially, when, as in this case, the election involves shameless suppression of votes, the politicisation of the FBI and the cyber-interference of the Russians. If cherishing democracy mandates acceptance of the poll, it also presupposes the right to opposition. And when that opposition is demonised as disloyal it needs to raise its voice.

平靜下來一直是贏家開給輸家的處方，以免自己的沾沾自喜被反對者攪亂。但是服從投票結(jié)果并不意味著壓制異見，特別是像這次，選舉涉及無恥的抑制選票、美國聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局(FBI)政治化以及俄羅斯網(wǎng)絡干預。如果說珍惜民主體制意味著接受投票結(jié)果，那么這一點也預設了反對的權(quán)利。而當反對方被妖魔化為不忠時，它需要更大聲地發(fā)表意見。

There is, after all, much to get noisy about. Weirdly, the American public that has awarded the outgoing president a popularity rating of 56 per cent has also elected someone who intends to delete the entirety of the Obama presidency. Now that Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress, Mr Trump will have a free hand to repeal the Affordable Care Act (depriving millions of Americans of insurance), fashion a Supreme Court to overthrow the Roe v Wade ruling on abortion, repudiate the Paris climate change accord, abandon the Iran nuclear agreement and get rid of the Dodd-Frank bank regulation designed to prevent a repeat of the conduct that brought on the Great Recession.

畢竟，當今有很多值得爭辯的地方。吊詭的是，美國民眾賦予了即將離任的總統(tǒng)56%的支持率，卻選出了一位打算刪掉奧巴馬總統(tǒng)任期全部政治遺產(chǎn)的人。由于共和黨控制了白宮和參眾兩院，特朗普將可以放手廢除《平價醫(yī)療法》(Affordable Care Act)(剝奪成百上千萬美國人的醫(yī)保)、改組最高法院(Supreme Court)以推翻羅伊訴韋德案(Roe v. Wade)中對墮胎合法化的裁決、退出巴黎氣候變化協(xié)定、拋棄伊朗核協(xié)議、并且廢止旨在防止“大衰退”重演的銀行監(jiān)管規(guī)則——《多德-弗蘭克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。

It is said that Mr Trump’s slash-and-burn instincts will be moderated by experienced counsellors — they won’t. He did it His Way and the doubters and fence-sitters will all be replaced by dependable sycophants. Knowing that his appeal to the voters was all about big-boy attitude, Mr Trump will make this a presidency of “I Alone Can Fix It”.

有人說，特朗普的任性本能將被經(jīng)驗豐富的顧問們調(diào)和——這不可能。特朗普靠著我行我素入主白宮，懷疑者和觀望者將被可信賴的奉承者取代。知道了他對選民的吸引力就在于“老大”態(tài)度后，特朗普將使“只有我自己可以搞定”成為他的總統(tǒng)任期的標志。

Doubtless the speechwriters are even now penning an inaugural address featuring the usual bromides about overcoming division. Coming from someone who knows perfectly well that the way he separated himself from the pack was to throw the red meat of abuse to the crowd, turning Hillary Clinton into a felon, this will be a bad joke. The lingering effects of his malignant, incendiary rhetoric will not be dispelled by a sudden show of “Kumbaya”. They will hang in the political climate like toxic fog, not least because he knows that should he fail to deliver on his countless undeliverable promises, he can always fire up the zealots with another round of scapegoating against the usual suspects: the “international conspiracy” of banks and media and the city “elites” accused of talking down to regular folk and sneering at the American dream.

毫無疑問，演講稿撰寫人現(xiàn)在就在撰寫一份克服分歧之類的就職演說。這樣的套話出自一個深知讓自己脫穎而出的手段就是把辱罵的紅肉扔給眾人，把希拉里·克林頓(Hillary Clinton)說成重罪犯的人，簡直是一個蹩腳的笑話。特朗普惡毒、煽動性言論的遺留影響，不會因其突然演唱《康巴亞》(Kumbaya，美國的傳統(tǒng)宗教歌曲——譯者注)而消除。它們將像毒霧一樣漂浮在政治氣氛中，特別是因為他知道，一旦他作出的無數(shù)沒法兌現(xiàn)的承諾落空了，他總可以再遷怒于通常的嫌疑人——銀行和媒體的“國際陰謀”，以及被指責貶低普通民眾并嘲諷美國夢的城市“精英”，從而煽動狂熱者。

These have been the bugbears of American nativist populism for almost as long as there has been an America. One of the great paradoxes of American nationality is that it has been built simultaneously around both the embrace and the rejection of immigrant identity. To a degree inconceivable anywhere else, American patriotism was indifferent to origins (though not, of course, to race). But the very success of the immigrant republic also generated spasms of violent nativism. In the 1850s, the targets were Irish and Italian Catholics; in the 1880s, the Chinese; in the 1900s, Jews from eastern Europe. 差不多自美國誕生以來，這些一直是美國本土民粹主義的妖怪。美國人身份認同的一大矛盾是，它同時圍繞接受和反對移民身份而建立。在某種程度上對其他地方不可思議的是，美國的愛國主義不在乎原籍(盡管不能說不在乎種族)。但是這個移民共和國的成功本身也催生了一波波的暴力本土主義。19世紀50年代，本土主義的目標是愛爾蘭和意大利天主教徒;19世紀80年代，目標是華人;到了20世紀頭十年，目標又成了來自東歐的猶太人。

Mr Trump’s populism is just the latest edition of this sweaty agitation. Unlike the tin ear of the Clinton campaign, he has had perfect pitch, channelling the rage of the “left behind” and the nostalgic yearning to get back an unsullied homeland as imaginary as the village-green idyll of the British Brexiters.

特朗普的民粹主義只是這種亢奮鼓動的最新版本。和不接地氣的希拉里競選團隊不同，他祭出了完美的競選說辭，引導“被遺忘之人”的憤怒，以及選民對于恢復純凈國土的懷舊渴望，盡管這樣的愿景就像英國退歐派吹噓的充滿詩情畫意的綠色田園景象一樣，純屬臆想。

Such feverish dreams of purification and restoration are the contagion of our times. Two unrelated phenomena — a socially unequal recovery from recession and the wash of desperate migrations across the world — have been connected, the latter made to explain the former. The blame for the contraction of low-skill jobs is laid at the door of wily foreigners and low-wage labour. The fuse of resentment, lit by the demagogue, blooms into poisonous flame.

此類對純凈化和恢復的狂熱夢想成了我們時代的瘟疫。兩個毫不相關的現(xiàn)象——從衰退復蘇過程中的社會不平等、以及絕望的移民涌向世界各地——被聯(lián)系在一起，后者被用來解釋前者。低技能工作崗位減少的罪魁禍首，成了狡猾的外國人和低收入勞工。煽動者點燃的憤怒的導火索，演變成了有毒的火焰。

The manner of Mr Trump’s victory will persuade other nativists and crypto-fascists that success in their own elections next year will best be served by ramping up the paranoia. Internationalism and cosmopolitanism will be represented as the realm of the devilish establishment. The walls of protection and the watchtowers of the security state will rise over the citadel nation. Freedom will be sacrificed to safety.

特朗普勝利的方式將說服其他本土主義者和隱藏的法西斯主義者相信，要在明年的選舉中獲勝，他們最好升高偏執(zhí)言論的分貝。國際主義和世界主義將被描述成邪惡體制的一部分。保護的高墻和警察國家的城樓將在城堡之國建起。自由將淪為安全的犧牲品。

All this will assuredly come to pass, unless heterogeneous city culture — with all its disorderly creativity, its flowing tides of newcomers and outgoers — finds unapologetic champions. It was the fatal error of the Clinton campaign to suppose that an arid menu of policy proposals was the same thing as a full-throated defence of modernity.

這一切必定會成為現(xiàn)實——除非多姿多彩的城市文化(伴隨所有無序的創(chuàng)造力、源源不斷的新移民和離開者)找到堅定的倡導者。希拉里陣營的致命錯誤是以為一份干巴巴的政策提議等同于為現(xiàn)代社會有力辯護。

Whatever rises from the rubble of liberalism’s debacle must never repeat that mistake. The decencies of modern life need to be argued with militant passion and broadcast to places where it can be heard by people who don’t read broadsheets. What neither America nor the rest of world can afford right now is to keep calm and carry on.

無論從自由主義慘敗的廢墟中誕生出什么，都必須確保永遠不重復這一錯誤?，F(xiàn)代生活的體面需要用激昂的熱情來捍衛(wèi)，并且傳播到不讀大報的人也能聽到的角落。眼下，無論美國還是世界其他地方都承擔不起的就是保持冷靜和繼續(xù)前進。

The writer is an FT contributing editor

本文作者是英國《金融時報》特約編輯