在“人格分裂”的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中，投資人怎么辦

BEIJING — Weijian Shan, chief executive of the Hong Kong fund management firm PAG, says the global economy is dangerous for investors these days. Years of easy money from central banks have helped inflate the prices of just about everything an investor can buy, like stocks or property.

北京——香港基金管理公司太盟投資集團(tuán)(PAG)首席執(zhí)行官單偉建說，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況目前對(duì)投資者來說有危險(xiǎn)。中央銀行多年來的寬松貨幣政策助漲了投資者能夠購(gòu)買的像股票或物業(yè)這樣的幾乎所有東西的價(jià)格。

“I think that clearly we are in an asset bubble,” Mr. Shan said in a phone interview from Hong Kong.

“我認(rèn)為，我們明顯地處于一個(gè)資產(chǎn)泡沫之中，”單偉建在香港接受電話采訪時(shí)說。

So what should investors do? Mr. Shan recommended a return to the basics. His firm, with $16 billion under management in funds that specialize in fields like private equity and real estate, is looking for value in areas still growing in a sluggish world economy.

那投資者該怎么辦呢?單偉建的建議是回到基礎(chǔ)上去。他的公司管理著160億美元的基金，善長(zhǎng)于私募股權(quán)和房地產(chǎn)等專業(yè)領(lǐng)域，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的情況下，公司在仍有增長(zhǎng)的領(lǐng)域?qū)で髢r(jià)值。

“We are not chasing bubbles as many of our peers do,” said Mr. Shan, a former professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. “I only want to look at the fundamentals. I want to know how much money this business makes.”

單偉建曾在位于費(fèi)城的賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)沃頓商學(xué)院擔(dān)任教授，他說：“我們不像許多同行那樣在追蹤泡沫。我只想看基礎(chǔ)的東西。我想知道這家公司賺多少錢。”

In that, Mr. Shan is positioned well. PAG focuses mainly on investments in or related to Asia, where the fortunes of China, India and other countries remain buoyant even as the global economy sags.

在這點(diǎn)上，單偉建已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好了。太盟投資集團(tuán)主要關(guān)注在亞洲或與亞洲相關(guān)的投資，盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑，但亞洲的中國(guó)、印度和其他國(guó)家的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)仍然保持旺盛。

“If you look around the world, Asia is where the growth is,” he said.

“如果你環(huán)顧一下世界，(你會(huì)看到)亞洲是增長(zhǎng)的地方，”他說。

Mr. Shan said that China, where he was born, “is the most interesting market because of its growth.”

單偉建出生在中國(guó)，他說中國(guó)“是最有意思的市場(chǎng)，因?yàn)樗栽谠鲩L(zhǎng)”。

But that growth has declined. In the third quarter, China’s gross domestic product rose 6.7 percent, in contrast with the 9 percent to 10 percent the country enjoyed for years. The downturn has intensified the struggles of what Mr. Shan called China’s “bad economy” — mainly manufacturing and heavy industries, which have too many factories and too much debt.

但這種增長(zhǎng)的速度已經(jīng)有所下降。中國(guó)第三季度的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)了6.7%，與多年來9%到10%的增長(zhǎng)率有明顯差異。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩加劇了單偉建稱之為中國(guó)的“壞經(jīng)濟(jì)”的困境，這主要是指產(chǎn)能過剩、債務(wù)沉重的制造業(yè)和重工業(yè)。

Mr. Shan, however, also sees a “good economy” in China. As the government tries to shift the country’s engine of growth away from investing in steel mills and apartment blocks, it is encouraging more private consumption. That is opening opportunities in areas that cater to Chinese consumers.

但隨著政府試圖將中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力從投資鋼鐵廠和公寓樓轉(zhuǎn)向鼓勵(lì)更多的私人消費(fèi)，單偉建也在中國(guó)看到一個(gè)“好經(jīng)濟(jì)”。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)給迎合中國(guó)消費(fèi)者的行業(yè)帶來了機(jī)會(huì)。

“China has a split personality at this moment,” Mr. Shan said. But “the good economy remains quite resilient in spite of the bad economy.”

“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)此刻具有雙重性，”單偉建說。“雖然壞經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然存在，但好經(jīng)濟(jì)保持著相當(dāng)?shù)倪m應(yīng)力。”

Mr. Shan, who once served as a senior partner at the investment firm TPG, is focusing his money on companies that can benefit from China’s rising consumerism. In October, PAG’s private-equity arm invested an undisclosed amount in the Paradise Group, based in Singapore, which operates restaurants across China and Southeast Asia.

單偉建曾在美國(guó)投資公司德克薩斯州太平洋投資集團(tuán)(TPG)擔(dān)任資深合伙人，他正把投資的重點(diǎn)集中到能夠從中國(guó)不斷增長(zhǎng)的消費(fèi)中受益的公司上來。今年10月，PAG的私募股權(quán)部門對(duì)新加坡的樂天餐飲集團(tuán)(Paradise Group)投了一筆未披露的資金，該集團(tuán)在中國(guó)和東南亞經(jīng)營(yíng)飯館。

In August, it spent about $250 million to acquire Golden Apple, which runs a chain of private schools from Chengdu, China’s western metropolis.

今年8月，公司花了約2.5億美元收購(gòu)了金蘋果，這家機(jī)構(gòu)在中國(guó)西部大都市成都經(jīng)營(yíng)私立連鎖學(xué)校。

In its most prominent deal, PAG in April joined Apex Technology, a Chinese producer of ink cartridge components, and others in the acquisition of the printer maker Lexmark International, based in Kentucky, a transaction valued at $3.6 billion. The deal was appealing to PAG, in part because the new owners hope to raise the profile of Lexmark printers in the Chinese marketplace.

PAG最重要的一筆交易發(fā)生在今年4月，公司與中國(guó)墨盒組件生產(chǎn)商珠海艾派克科技(Apex Technology)及其他公司一起，收購(gòu)了總部設(shè)在肯塔基州的打印機(jī)制造商利盟國(guó)際(Lexmark International)，這筆交易的估價(jià)為36億美元。這筆交易對(duì)PAG有吸引力，部分原因是公司的新股東希望提高利盟打印機(jī)在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的地位。

Mr. Shan also wants to take advantage of some of Asia’s bad economy. With debt levels continuing to rise in China, PAG is developing a strategy for buying and profiting from bad loans at Chinese banks. He also says his firm has generated good returns from buying distressed debt backed by real estate in the region. PAG, which has 30 percent of its capital in real estate, is still sniffing around for reasonably priced property as well.

單偉建也想利用亞洲壞經(jīng)濟(jì)的一些方面。隨著中國(guó)債務(wù)水平持續(xù)上升，PAG正在制定一個(gè)購(gòu)買中國(guó)銀行不良貸款并從中獲利的策略。他還表示，他的公司通過購(gòu)買由該地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)作抵押的不良債務(wù)已經(jīng)獲得了良好的回報(bào)。PAG資產(chǎn)的30%在房地產(chǎn)，公司仍然在尋找價(jià)格合理的物業(yè)。

“We invest in real estate where the price is not out of whack,” he said.

“我們?cè)趦r(jià)格不出格的地方投資房地產(chǎn)，”單偉建說。

“It is in times like this that you really can differentiate among investors who will be more focused on fundamentals,” he said, “who invests along with the rest of the bandwagon.”

他說，“在這樣的時(shí)候，你才真正能把那些將更專注于基本面的投資者與其他那些搭便車的投資者區(qū)別開來。”