日本年末增長乏力 安倍三箭效果存疑

Japan's economy was surprisingly weak in the final three months of 2013, a disappointmentfor the government in its ambitious economic growth strategy and the latest cautionary signamong major industrial economies.

2013年第四季度日本經(jīng)濟(jì)出人意料地疲弱，這令日本政府對其雄心勃勃的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長策略失望，同時(shí)也是主要發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中最新的警示信號。

The country's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services producedin the economy, expanded at an annualized pace of 1% in the October to December period.Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted a 2.8% rise.

日本國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)在去年10月至12月份的年化增幅為1%。GDP是衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)中產(chǎn)出的商品和服務(wù)的最廣泛指標(biāo)。接受《華爾街日報(bào)》(The Wall Street Journal)調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)增幅為2.8%。

The figures will likely strengthen concern among economists already worried about how Japan'sdomestic-driven recovery will fare once the nation's sales tax is raised to 8% from 5% inApril. Economists expect at least a temporary chill in demand when the new rate goes intoeffect.

一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家原本就擔(dān)心今年4月消費(fèi)稅從5%上調(diào)至8%之后，日本由內(nèi)需驅(qū)動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇情況將會(huì)如何。上述數(shù)字可能會(huì)加劇這些人的擔(dān)憂。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)計(jì)，一旦新的消費(fèi)稅率生效，需求至少會(huì)暫時(shí)降溫。

Though consumers and firms spent less in the quarter than forecast, economists said thenumber was weighed down mostly by weak demand for Japanese goods abroad.

雖然消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)在去年第四季度的開支都低于此前預(yù)期，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們說，壓低GDP數(shù)據(jù)的最主要因素是海外對日本商品的需求疲弱。

That puts Japan's growth for the fourth quarter of 2013 below the 1.1% annualized expansionrecorded in the euro bloc, and well below the 3.2% rise recorded in the U.S.

這樣一來，日本2013年第四季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增幅就低于歐元區(qū)1.1%的年化增幅，也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不及美國3.2%的增幅。

The anemic growth figure represents a further slowing of the economy after a sharpdeceleration in the July-September quarter, when Japan's economy expanded 1.1%.

這一疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)據(jù)表明，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)在去年第三季度急劇減速之后進(jìn)一步放緩。去年第三季度日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為1.1%。

The data is likely to raise doubts about whether Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's push to turnaround two decades of lackluster growth has really revived consumer confidence enough tosustain a recovery. It also raises concerns about demand for Japanese goods abroad despitea weakening of the yen against other major currencies since Mr. Abe took power at the end of2012.

這一數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)引發(fā)對日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)所推措施的疑慮，令人質(zhì)疑這些旨在扭轉(zhuǎn)20年經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的措施是否真的將該消費(fèi)者信心提高到了足以維持經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的程度。這也會(huì)引發(fā)對日本商品海外需求的擔(dān)憂，盡管自2012年底安倍晉三出任首相以來日圓兌其他主要貨幣走弱。

The stock market took the latest figures in stride on Monday with the Nikkei Stock Averagedown 0.5% at 14246.05. The market was reacting in part to a sharp downturn in the value ofthe dollar against the yen following the GDP news.

日本股市周一未受最新GDP數(shù)據(jù)影響，日經(jīng)指數(shù)下跌0.5%，至14246.05點(diǎn)。市場在一定程度上是對GDP數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布后美元兌日圓急劇下跌做出反應(yīng)。

The data could also strengthen speculation for additional monetary stimulus by the Bank ofJapan. The central bank has forecast firm exports and business investment will propel theeconomy in 2014 despite the sales tax increase.

上述數(shù)據(jù)可能還會(huì)讓人們進(jìn)一步猜測日本央行(Bank of Japan)將推出額外的貨幣刺激政策。日本央行此前預(yù)測，盡管消費(fèi)稅即將上調(diào)，但企業(yè)出口和商業(yè)投資將對2014年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長起到推動(dòng)作用。

Economist Takeshi Minami at the Norinchukin Research Institute noted that part of theweakness came in the form of higher imports, which are calculated as a negative factor inthe overall GDP.

農(nóng)林中金綜合研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)的Takeshi Minami指出，GDP數(shù)據(jù)疲弱在一定程度上是以進(jìn)口增加的形式呈現(xiàn)的，進(jìn)口增加在計(jì)算整體GDP數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)被認(rèn)為是不利因素。

'This confirms that we rely on goods made overseas for products that Japanese consumersbuy,' adding that 'despite the weak yen, Japanese manufacturers are not coming back.'

他說，這證實(shí)了日本消費(fèi)者購買的產(chǎn)品依賴于海外生產(chǎn)。他補(bǔ)充說，盡管日圓走弱，但日本制造商并未扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢。

Japan's recovery in 2013 was led by firm spending by consumers, but consumer demand in thefourth quarter was also less than economists expected. Household spending only rose 0.5% onquarter compared with an expected 0.7% rise.

盡管日本2013年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇是由強(qiáng)勁的消費(fèi)支出推動(dòng)，但第四季度消費(fèi)需求也不及經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期。家庭開支環(huán)比上季度僅增加0.5%，此前預(yù)期增幅為0.7%。

'What's worrisome is consumption. Even though some front-loaded demand ahead of the salestax increases has started helping it, that hasn't increased much.' Masamichi Adachi, senioreconomist JPMorgan Securities.

JPMorgan Securities資深經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Masamichi Adachi說，令人擔(dān)憂的是消費(fèi);雖然消費(fèi)稅上調(diào)之前搶先消費(fèi)的需求已經(jīng)開始回暖，但消費(fèi)并未增加太多。

That does not appear to be a surprise to at least some consumers.

對于至少一部分消費(fèi)者來說，這似乎并不出乎意料。

At an exclusive Tokyo department store over the weekend, some shoppers voiced caution overthe long-term outlook.

上周末在東京一家高檔百貨商場里，一些消費(fèi)者對日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的長期前景表達(dá)了謹(jǐn)慎看法。

One of them, 49-year-old Junko Takahashi, said she had just bought a jacket to get thatpurchase done before the sales-tax rise. But she was holding off on further spending.

其中，49歲的Junko Takahashi稱，自己剛買了一件外套，目的就是趕在銷售稅上調(diào)之前買下單，但對于進(jìn)一步的消費(fèi)她要暫時(shí)收斂一下了。

'Summer and winter bonuses were up--a bit--for the first time in five years, but I'm notspending because I am concerned they may go down again, she said.

她表示，去年夏季和冬季的獎(jiǎng)金多發(fā)了一點(diǎn)，這是五年來第一次，但她不會(huì)大筆消費(fèi)，因?yàn)閾?dān)心獎(jiǎng)金可能會(huì)再變少。

Some companies, including Toyota Motor Corp., have already said they will cut production inApril. Aware of an economic downturn in Japan linked in part at least to a previous sales taxincrement in 1997, the Abe administration has already compiled a Yen5.5 trillion stimuluspackage to try and cushion the blow of the latest jump in the rate.

包括豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)在內(nèi)的一些公司已經(jīng)表示，將在4月份減產(chǎn)。由于知道日本以往有一次經(jīng)濟(jì)下行至少在一定程度上與1997年上一次銷售稅上調(diào)有關(guān)，所以安倍晉三政府已制定了一項(xiàng)5.5萬億日圓的刺激計(jì)劃，試圖緩沖這次銷售稅上調(diào)將帶來的沖擊。

Some economists remain relatively optimistic, though.

不過，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍比較樂觀。

Mitsubishi Research Institute chief economist Yoko Takeda said that despite the sales taxincrease, a rise in wages and business investment will lift Japan's economy in 2014.

三菱綜合研究所(Mitsubishi Research Institute)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Yoko Takeda稱，盡管銷售稅上調(diào)，但工資上漲和商業(yè)投資將提振2014年的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)。

'Recent company profits have been very good, and I think they're going to put some of thattoward higher wages and more investment,' she said.

Takeda表示，近來企業(yè)的盈利狀況非常不錯(cuò)，她認(rèn)為企業(yè)會(huì)將會(huì)把部分利潤用來加薪和進(jìn)行更多投資。

She added that even if personal consumption falls immediately following the sales tax increase,a rise in bonuses later in the year will likely help revive households' appetites for spending.

她還稱，即使緊接著銷售稅上調(diào)的一段時(shí)間內(nèi)個(gè)人消費(fèi)出現(xiàn)下降，但今年晚些時(shí)候企業(yè)獎(jiǎng)金的增加可能會(huì)有助于恢復(fù)家庭的開支意愿。