怎樣從泡沫中獲益？

Over the last 13 years, investors have experienced some of the largest financial bubbles in history. Asian currencies rose and fell, technology and Internet shares suffered staggering losses, oil and other commodities rode a wild roller coaster, and the collapse of the housing market caused trillions of dollars of damage.
過(guò)去13年中，投資者經(jīng)歷了一系列歷史上最大的金融泡沫：亞洲貨幣升跌起落；科技及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股遭受巨大損失；石油及其它商品價(jià)格波動(dòng)如同過(guò)山車；而房市崩盤導(dǎo)致?lián)p失達(dá)數(shù)萬(wàn)億美元。

Already, some see signs of new real-estate bubbles in markets like China, Australia, Canada and even smaller countries, such as Israel. Rather than aberrations, there's reason to think that financial bubbles have become more common.
而中國(guó)、澳大利亞、加拿大甚至以色列等較小國(guó)家，在有些人看來(lái)，已出現(xiàn)新的地產(chǎn)泡沫跡象。認(rèn)為金融泡沫已更為常見并非不經(jīng)之談，而有其合理的理由。

And markets are more volatile -- as was evidenced on Friday when news reports of Securities and Exchange Commission charges against Goldman Sachs Group precipitated a sudden and sharp selloff.
當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)更為波動(dòng)，正如上周五所見，美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(Securities and Exchange Commission)對(duì)高盛集團(tuán)（Goldman Sachs Group）發(fā)出指控的新聞報(bào)道引發(fā)市場(chǎng)急劇拋售。

How can investors deal with the new environment?
投資者如何應(yīng)對(duì)這種新的投資環(huán)境呢？

Analysts offer a range of suggestions, including dropping buy-and-hold strategies, holding more cash and purchasing a range of downside protection, such as options and so-called inverse exchange-traded funds.
分析師們提供了一系列建議，諸如放棄“買入并持有”策略、持有更多現(xiàn)金，以及購(gòu)買一些下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保護(hù)產(chǎn)品，如期權(quán)及所謂的反向交易所上市基金等。

Competitive Investing競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性投資

Among the reasons so many markets are surging to sky-high levels before tumbling to painful depths: Investors are able to chase almost any kind of trade today, thanks to new products, such as ETFs. Pressure has never been greater for investment pros to keep up with competitors, encouraging them to ape their rivals' trades. Also, more pros have embraced 'momentum' investing, buying investments as they move higher, and selling them as they fall, to try to ride the moves.
在眾多市場(chǎng)驟然沖高而后深跌的原因中，有一條是：因交易所上市基金(ETF)等新產(chǎn)品的推出，今天的投資者可追逐幾乎各種交易。投資專業(yè)人士面臨從未有過(guò)的巨大壓力要緊跟競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者，由此促使他們模仿對(duì)手的交易。同時(shí)，更多的投資專業(yè)人士接受了動(dòng)態(tài)投資策略，上揚(yáng)時(shí)買入，回落時(shí)拋出，以緊跟市場(chǎng)節(jié)奏。

Meanwhile, globalization and other developments have pushed inflation lower, encouraging central bankers to drop interest rates so low that many investors have turned to cheap borrowed money for their trades, fueling financial bubbles. The free-flow of trading information also may have made markets more volatile and prone to wild trading.
同時(shí)，全球化及其它發(fā)展使得通脹放緩，各國(guó)央行由此保持低息，以致眾多投資者轉(zhuǎn)而通過(guò)低息借款來(lái)進(jìn)行交易，加劇了金融泡沫。交易信息的自由流動(dòng)可能也使市場(chǎng)更為波動(dòng)，更易出現(xiàn)失控的交易行為。

'The size of the bubble is in direct proportion to the ease with which news and rumors can be spread and the ease with which people can then trade on these rumors,' says Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University.
紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院(Stern School of Business at New York University)的金融學(xué)教授達(dá)莫達(dá)倫(Aswath Damodaran)說(shuō)，泡沫的大小與消息及流言傳播的自由度及人們由此進(jìn)行交易的自由度成正比。

The new environment presents unique challenges. It's often hard to identify a financial bubble. The surge in gold over the past few years strikes some analysts as dangerous. Global markets often move in lockstep today, making it harder to avoid a sharp downturn.
新環(huán)境帶來(lái)獨(dú)特的挑戰(zhàn)。金融泡沫通常難以界定。過(guò)去幾年金價(jià)躍升在部分分析師看來(lái)極為危險(xiǎn)。而當(dāng)今全球市場(chǎng)常常同步運(yùn)行使得避免發(fā)生急劇下挫更為艱難。

But investors who adopt a perpetually worried outlook will miss out on big gains -- such as the 76% rise for the S&P 500 index since the market bottomed out just over a year ago.
但持長(zhǎng)期看空觀點(diǎn)的投資者將會(huì)錯(cuò)失豐厚盈利的機(jī)會(huì)，比如，就在一年前，市場(chǎng)觸底反彈，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500 index)上漲幅度達(dá)76%。

Rather than predict how long markets will climb, or when they might tumble, a better idea is to embrace new strategies. For one thing, it's no longer safe to buy an investment and store it away. Taking profits after a big runup once was the mark of a timid investor; today, it's a sign of smarts.
與其預(yù)測(cè)市場(chǎng)會(huì)持續(xù)上漲多久，或市場(chǎng)何時(shí)下跌，還不如采取新的策略。原因之一是，買入一項(xiàng)投資并長(zhǎng)期持有已不再安全。過(guò)去，投資者趁市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)一波大反彈即獲利了結(jié)被視為膽小，而今，這卻是聰明的表現(xiàn)。

'One of the lessons from 2008 is that buy and hold is a much riskier proposition,' says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank.
芝加哥Harris Private Bank首席投資長(zhǎng)埃布林(Jack Ablin)表示，2008年的一個(gè)教訓(xùn)是“買入并持有”建議具較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Staying Liquid保持流動(dòng)性

Just as important, investors need to make sure they're not stuck in hard-to-sell holdings if they might need to raise cash in the short term. Too many investors were caught in 2008 in investments that turned out to be quite illiquid, such as high-yielding money-market funds that held risky debt.
如果有短期現(xiàn)金需要，投資者需要確定不會(huì)陷于持有難以出手的投資產(chǎn)品中，這一點(diǎn)同樣重要。2008年有太多投資者被套入流動(dòng)性極差的投資產(chǎn)品中，如被風(fēng)險(xiǎn)債所累的高收益貨幣市場(chǎng)基金等產(chǎn)品。

Buying protection and having ample cash on hand also are musts. Some analysts recommend inverse ETFs, which provide a return that's the inverse of global markets or sectors. If markets tumble, these ETFs should rise in value.
購(gòu)買保護(hù)性產(chǎn)品及手頭持有充足現(xiàn)金也是必須的。有分析師推薦反向ETF(inverse ETF)，該產(chǎn)品在全球市場(chǎng)或行業(yè)下滑時(shí)提供回報(bào)。如果市場(chǎng)下跌，這類ETF產(chǎn)品價(jià)格應(yīng)上漲。

An investor who is convinced that his portfolio will do well over the long haul and is unwilling to sell shares, but is still worried about a short-term market tumble, might place 5% of the value of his portfolio in shares of ProShares Short S&P500, an ETF that climbs when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index falls.
投資者若確信其投資組合長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看可盈利而不愿拋售，但又擔(dān)心市場(chǎng)會(huì)出現(xiàn)短期下滑，則可以其投資組合價(jià)值的5%購(gòu)入做空標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的ProShares Short S&P500，這種ETF產(chǎn)品在標(biāo)普500指數(shù)下滑時(shí)會(huì)上漲。

That could provide cushion in an abrupt tumble. Investors holding heavy doses of shares of smaller companies can purchase the ProShares Short Russell2000, which rises when the small companies in the Russell 2000 drop.
這可在市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)突然性下滑時(shí)提供緩沖。重倉(cāng)小型公司股的投資者可購(gòu)買做空羅素2000指數(shù)的ProShares Short Russell2000產(chǎn)品，這種產(chǎn)品在羅素2000指數(shù)成份股中小型公司股價(jià)下滑時(shí)反而上漲。

These ETFs sometimes don't track markets exactly, especially when trading gets volatile, so they're not a perfect solution.
這些ETF產(chǎn)品有時(shí)并不切合市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)，特別是在交易極為波動(dòng)之時(shí)，因而并非完美的解決方案。

Another option is to choose a 'tactical asset' or 'tactical-allocation' mutual fund, or one that shifts among various assets, in an attempt to avoid getting caught in a painful downturn. One example: the Pimco All Asset Fund.
另一種方案是選擇“戰(zhàn)術(shù)性資產(chǎn)”或“戰(zhàn)術(shù)性配置”共同基金，或者說(shuō)是在不同資產(chǎn)間轉(zhuǎn)換的產(chǎn)品，以避免在大跌中被套。例如：Pimco 全資產(chǎn)基金( Pimco All Asset Fund)。

Cash at the Ready備足現(xiàn)金

The simplest form of protection is holding ample cash. Today, money-market funds pay puny returns, but that's not a steep price to pay for both safety and the ability to re-enter a market after a tumble.
具直接的保護(hù)方式是持有充足現(xiàn)金。目前，貨幣市場(chǎng)基金回報(bào)微乎其乎，但考慮到安全性及在市場(chǎng)下跌后有資金重新入市，付出這種代價(jià)并不過(guò)高。

'Investors must be more willing to employ cash as a legitimate asset class,' says Mr. Ablin.
埃布林說(shuō)，投資者必須更樂于將現(xiàn)金當(dāng)做一類可合理運(yùn)作的資產(chǎn)。

Investors need to have more cash on hand than in the past, argues Jeff Fishman, who runs JSF Financial, a Los Angeles-based financial-advisory firm.
洛杉磯的一家金融咨詢公司JSF Financial 的管理人菲什曼（Jeff Fishman）說(shuō)，投資者手頭的現(xiàn)金要比以往多才行。

In the past, he recommended that investors hold cash equating to three to six months of living expenses. But on the heels of the markets' turbulence over the past decade, he now advises they hold cash amounting to six to 12 months of living expenses, especially since banks have slashed or eliminated home-equity lines of credit to many individuals, something many relied on as a safety net.
過(guò)去，他推薦投資者手頭持有相當(dāng)于三至六月生活開支的現(xiàn)金。但鑒于過(guò)去10年市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩，目前他建議投資者持有相當(dāng)于六至12個(gè)月生活開支的現(xiàn)金，特別是從各銀行針對(duì)眾多個(gè)人削減或取消了家庭資產(chǎn)類貸款以來(lái)，這種貸款被許多人視為現(xiàn)金來(lái)源的安全保證。

Mr. Fishman is a fan of shorter-term tax-free bond funds, such as the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund and the AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund, as good places to stash short-term funds.
菲什曼熱衷于短期免稅型債券基金，像先鋒短期免稅基金(Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Fund)及另類投資市場(chǎng)免稅中間基金(AIM Tax-Free Intermediate Fund)，均是存放短期資金的不錯(cuò)去處。